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A scoring model predicting overall survival for hepatocellular carcinoma patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy

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Abstract

Surgery is the most effective way to cure hepatocellular carcinoma, and chemotherapy is the basic adjuvant treatment. For hepatocellular carcinoma patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy, survival prognostic criteria for predicting overall survival has not been established. We were planning to establish a survival prognostic scoring model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing surgery and chemotherapy.

Hepatocellular carcinoma patients who had received surgery and chemotherapy were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into training group and validation group. A prognostic scoring model was constructed by the training group, and the predictive accuracy of it was validated by the validation group.

A prognostic scoring model was established including age, race, grade, summary stage, radiotherapy status, and AJCC stage. The area under the ROC curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival probabilities were 0.795 (95% CI [0.755–0.832]), 0.767 (95% CI [0.725–0.805]), and 0.750 (95% CI [0.707–0.789]) in the training group, respectively, and 0.781 (95% CI [0.740–0.819]), 0.761 (95% CI [0.719–0.800]), and 0.737 (95% CI [0.693–0.777]) in the validation group, respectively. The survival of the high-risk group was significantly lower than that of the mid-risk and low-risk groups in the training and validation groups according to the scoring model.

The constructed scoring model provides reliable and accurate overall survival prediction and a reference for clinicians performing clinical decision-making for hepatocellular carcinoma patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy in the general population.

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Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 81960120) and the “Gan-Po Talent 555” Project of Jiangxi Province.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China

    Jie Jian, Yuan Nie, Chenkai Huang, Sizhe Wan & Xuan Zhu

Authors
  1. Jie Jian
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  2. Yuan Nie
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  3. Chenkai Huang
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  4. Sizhe Wan
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  5. Xuan Zhu
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Contributions

JJ designed and wrote the manuscript. CKH collected the data. JJ and YN contributed to the analysis of the data. SW and XZ were responsible for the final modification of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Xuan Zhu.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Jian, J., Nie, Y., Huang, C. et al. A scoring model predicting overall survival for hepatocellular carcinoma patients who receive surgery and chemotherapy. Indian J Surg 84 (Suppl 2), 365–372 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12262-021-03224-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12262-021-03224-z

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