Abstract
Methane hydrates (MHs) have potential economic and environmental significance. However, due to the sharp reduction in the mechanical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments (MHBS) caused by hydrate dissociation, the risk of formation failure in marine MHs exploitation is higher than that in conventional oil and gas exploitation. Formation failure in marine hydrate production probably leads to serious sand production or subsequent formation instability. A simplified and efficient analytical model is proposed at first for prediction of formation failure as well as the displacement around the wellbore during hydrate production, and then the reliability analysis for formation failure is performed by the Advanced First Order Second Moment Method based on the analytical solutions. This model considers the key factors affecting the formation failure, including 1) the partial coupling of multiple fields (the influence of pore pressure on mechanical field and the influence of hydrate dissociation on pore pressure, temperature and mechanical field), 2) the effect of gas/water or heat absorption caused by hydrate dissociation on pore pressure or temperature, 3) the change of mechanical properties of formation induced by hydrate dissociation and 4) the casing-formation interaction. The analytical solutions are verified and validated by numerical models. According to the analysis, the casing is sufficiently safe in the cross section due to its high stiffness, while the formation would be failure at the wellbore or dissociated front due to the stiffness/strength deterioration induced by hydrate dissociation. Hydrate dissociation leads to an increase in formation failure probability by approximately 20%. The probability of formation failure at the wellbore is about 30% higher than that at the dissociated front. The uncertainties in the internal friction angle and elastic modulus ratio have the greatest effect on formation failure probability.
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Abbreviations
- c:
-
Specific heat capacity of MHBS
- c 1 c 2 :
-
Cohesion in the dissociated, original region
- Ec, E 1, E 2 :
-
Elastic modulus of the casing, dissociated region, original region
- k w1, k w2 :
-
Water phase permeability in the dissociated, original region
- \(\overline m \) :
-
Hydrate dissociation heat
- P wf :
-
Fluid pressure
- P ∞ :
-
Initial pore pressure
- r 0 r 1 :
-
Radius of the wellbore, dissociated region
- r 2P, r 2T :
-
Radius of the influenced region for pore pressure, temperature
- r a, r b :
-
Inner, outer radius of casing Radius of the influenced region for pore pressure, temperature
- r a r b :
-
Inner, outer radius of casing
- S H :
-
Hydrate saturation
- T wf :
-
Fluid temperature
- T ∞ :
-
Initial temperature
- v 1 :
-
Movement rate of the dissociated front
- α 1, α 2 :
-
Biot coefficient in the dissociated, original region
- α w :
-
Mass fraction of water in a hydrate molecule
- Φ:
-
Porosity in MHBS
- φ:
-
Internal friction angle of MHBS
- λ1,λ2 :
-
Thermal conductivity in the dissociated, original region
- μw :
-
Viscosity of water
- ν c, ν :
-
Poisson’s ratio of casing, formation
- ρ H :
-
Density of hydrate
- ρ w :
-
Density of water
- σ∞ :
-
In-situ stress of MHBs
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 12272274, 51890911), Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund (ZDYF2021SHFZ264), Hainan Research Institute of China Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy (No. 21-HN-ZD-02-5) and the State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering (SLDRCE19-A-06).
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Jiang, M., Huang, J. & Wang, H. An Analytical Model and Its Application in Reliability Analysis of Formation Failure during Hydrate Production in Deep-sea Areas. KSCE J Civ Eng 28, 74–92 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-0877-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-0877-3