Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world. Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic. Most of them only use very basic SEIR model without considering the real situation. In this paper, we build a model called e-ISHR model based on SEIR model. Then we add hospital system and time delay system into the original model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 better. Besides, in order to take the government’s control and people’s awareness into consideration, we change our e-ISHR model into a 3-staged model which effectively shows the impact of these factors on the spread of the disease. By using this e-ISHR model, we fit and predict the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and China except Hubei. We also change some of parameters in our model. The results indicate the importance of isolation and increasing the number of beds in hospital.
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Abbreviations
- E :
-
The number of exposed individuals
- H :
-
The number of individuals isolated or cured in hospital
- I :
-
The number of individuals in incubation period
- k :
-
Proportion of healthy people in the population
- N con :
-
The number of confirmed cases
- N hom :
-
The number of individuals isolated or cured at home
- N hos :
-
The number of hospital beds
- R :
-
The number of recovered individuals
- S :
-
The number of individuals in symptomatic period
- t :
-
Outbreak duration
- t die :
-
Average death time of virus carries
- t inc :
-
Average time of incubation period
- t rec :
-
Average recovery time of virus carries
- t toH :
-
Average to hospital time of virus carries in symptomatic period
- α :
-
Probability of getting infectious after having contact with a virus carrier
- β hom :
-
The number of people contacted by a virus carrier in symptomatic period each day
- β inc :
-
The number of people contacted by a virus carrier isolated or cured at home each day
- β sym :
-
The number of people contacted by a virus carrier in incubation period each day
- γ hom :
-
Death rate in hospital
- γ hos :
-
Death rate at home
- δ :
-
Proportion of naturally carrying antibodies in the population
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Foundation item: the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2018YFB1004700), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61872238 and 61972254), the Shanghai Science and Technology Fund (No. 17510740200), and the CCFHuawei Database System Innovation Research Plan (No. CCF-Huawei DBIR2019002A)
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Li, S., Song, K., Yang, B. et al. Preliminary Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak Using 3-Staged Model e-ISHR. J. Shanghai Jiaotong Univ. (Sci.) 25, 157–164 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-020-2169-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-020-2169-0
Key words
- coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
- epidemic prediction, 3-staged model
- hospital system
- government’s control