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Expectations Are More Predictive of Behavior than Behavioral Intentions: Evidence from Two Prospective Studies

  • Original Article
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Annals of Behavioral Medicine

Abstract

Background

Understanding the gap between people’s behavioral intentions and their subsequent behavior is a key problem for behavioral scientists, but little attention has been paid to how behavioral intentions are operationalized.

Purpose

Test the distinction between asking people what they intend to do, as opposed to what they expect they will do.

Methods

Two studies were conducted in the domains of alcohol consumption (N = 152) and weight loss (N = 141). Participants completed questionnaires assessing their behavioral intentions, expectations, and self-efficacy at baseline; alcohol consumption/weight were assessed at both baseline and follow-up.

Results

In study 1, expectations were more predictive of alcohol consumption than behavioral intentions, controlling for baseline alcohol consumption and self-efficacy. In study 2, changes in expectations were more predictive of weight loss than changes in behavioral intentions, controlling for baseline weight and self-efficacy.

Conclusion

The findings support a potentially important distinction between behavioral intentions and expectations.

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Notes

  1. Note that some researchers also make a distinction between “self-efficacy” and “perceived control over behavior” [6, 7]. For example, using factor analysis and a panel of experts, Tavousi et al. [8] were able to distinguish internal influences on perceived control (e.g. confidence in one’s own ability or “self-efficacy”) and external influences on perceived control (e.g. environmental barriers) in relation to substance use among young adolescents, see also [6, 7, 9]. However, we were unable to support such a distinction in study 1, and so we focused on self-efficacy, given that self-efficacy is consistently more predictive of behavior than perceived control over behavior [6, 7].

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Authors’ Statement of Conflict of Interest and Adherence to Ethical Standards

Christopher J. Armitage, Mark Conner, Paul Norman and Soud Alganem declare that they have no conflict of interest. All procedures, including the informed consent process, were conducted in accordance with the ethical standards of the responsible committee on human experimentation (institutional and national) and with the Helsinki Declaration of 1975, as revised in 2000.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Manchester Centre for Health Psychology, School of Psychological Sciences, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, Coupland Street, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

    Christopher J. Armitage PhD

  2. University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK

    Paul Norman PhD

  3. Kuwait University, Kuwait, UK

    Soud Alganem PhD

  4. University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Mark Conner PhD

Authors
  1. Christopher J. Armitage PhD
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  2. Paul Norman PhD
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  3. Soud Alganem PhD
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  4. Mark Conner PhD
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Correspondence to Christopher J. Armitage PhD.

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Armitage, C.J., Norman, P., Alganem, S. et al. Expectations Are More Predictive of Behavior than Behavioral Intentions: Evidence from Two Prospective Studies. ann. behav. med. 49, 239–246 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12160-014-9653-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12160-014-9653-4

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