LEAF was applied to the top five corn stover-producing states (Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota [20]) to determine the impact of cover crops, vegetative buffers, and reduced tillage intensity on the amount of corn stover that can be sustainably harvested. Additionally, the five states used in this study have a significant amount of existing and ongoing field research that may be used to substantiate the modeled findings presented by this work. Details regarding the assessment methodology are available in Muth et al. [20] and Muth and Bryden [21]. Most parameters were unchanged and therefore are only briefly described in the following subsections. All additional considerations, assumptions, and methods modified for this study are described in full.
Soil Data
The SSURGO database [38] was used to provide soil data on a 10 to 100 m scale for defining spatial elements within the five states. The data used was a snapshot of the USDA-managed server from April 8, 2011 and was managed offline in a SQLite database [21]. Only soils with SSURGO land capability class ratings of 1 through 4 (those most suitable for agricultural production) were used for this study. Any soils occupying less than 405 ha in a county were not considered in order to increase computation speeds. With these assumptions, the approach accounted for more than 90 % of land in row crop production in these states. The LEAF analysis was run independently for every selected SSURGO soil map unit in each county for the study’s five states.
Climate Data
The modeling framework used three different climate data sources because of differences in the component models. RUSLE2 uses a set of spatially explicit databases managed by NRCS [30], while WEPS requires the CLIGEN daily climate generator and WINDGEN the daily wind speed and direction generator [31]. The integrated model identifies the county location for each SSURGO map unit and loads the required RUSLE2 climate data from the NRCS assembled dataset. CLIGEN and WINDGEN are stochastic models that utilize historic data to generate daily weather inventories for specified time periods. CLIGEN generates precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures, solar radiation, dew point, wind speed, and wind direction as daily inventories for a specific geographic location. WINDGEN generates hourly wind speed and direction inventories that provide WEPS the wind event intensity data required to calculate erosion. As with RUSLE2, both CLIGEN and WINDGEN receive location information at the county level based on the SSURGO map unit and are used to create the datasets required for each LEAF analysis.
Crop Rotations
Three crop rotations for corn stover removal were considered: continuous corn, corn-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.], and corn-corn-soybean. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) [40] methodology developed by Muth et al. [20] was used to determine the area in each county managed under these rotations. Three-year crop rotations for 2008, 2009, and 2010 were developed by overlaying the CDL data for each state. Data for all three years were spatially joined and intersected for every county in each state studied. The yearly land cover category for each 56 m grid cell was written to a database. All “like” grid cells were then aggregated. Any land areas that shifted from agricultural to nonagricultural uses were removed from the assessment. It is important to note that this study attributed all corn and soybean acres found in the five states to the three rotations listed previously. This is an important adaptation to the methodology developed by Muth et al. [20]. The results of the analysis are impacted by this assumption, particularly in states where corn is more commonly included in rotations with crops other than soybean. The land areas defined by each of the three crop rotations were used independently by LEAF to calculate sustainably available stover by crop rotation. The sum of all three rotations was used to quantify state-level biomass availability for each of the modeled simulations.
Land Management
Land management practices describe the crop(s) grown, their yield, fertilizer rates, and tillage practices, as well as interactions between those factors. Timing and type of equipment used for planting, tillage operations, grain harvest, and residue removal were determined by crop rotation and geographic location. Timing and order of field operations were based on NRCS crop management zones (CMZ) [41], an extensive soil and crop management operation and scenario database developed by NRCS. The five states in this analysis represent CMZs 1, 2, 4, 5, 16, 17, and 24. CMZs 4 and 16 comprise the majority of the area investigated. This information was used to build management and stover removal practices for each of the CMZs investigated.
Tillage Practices
Compared to Muth et al. [20], fewer tillage practices were modeled for this study. Conventional tillage was not included because (1) this study focused on identifying opportunities for conservation practices to support residue removal and (2) it was assumed that stover harvest would decrease residue management challenges currently faced by land managers that often lead to intensive tillage choices. The reduced tillage and no-tillage simulations were consistent with Conservation Technology Information Center (CTIC) [42] tillage definitions. The specific tillage equipment, dates of operation, and number of passes were established for each crop and tillage regime within every CMZ. This process created CMZ- and crop-specific rules for populating each crop rotation and tillage combination. Reduced tillage included at least one full-width tillage pass but left up to 15 to 30 % residue on the soil surface after planting. No-till was defined as the minimum soil disturbance required for planting. A third “current” tillage practice was created by aggregating the reduced and no-tillage practices into an area-weighted average for each county. The assumptions for tillage management practices at the county level match those used for the U.S. Billion Ton Update [1], with the exception that conventionally tilled areas were mapped to reduced tillage practices in this study. Each of the tillage, cover crop, and vegetative barrier scenarios used in this study plus the Billion Ton Update and LEAF baseline scenarios are presented in Table 1.
Table 1 Total sustainable corn stover availability and average sustainable removal rates for the top five corn stover-producing states under the standard sustainability criteria (erosion <T value, SCI > 0) for each of the management scenario combinations of tillage type, cover crop, and vegetative barriers
Residue Removal Practices
The five residue removal methods developed by Muth and Bryden [21] were used for each combination of crop rotation and tillage practice. These included no residue harvest (NRH; 0 % removal), harvest grain and cobs (HGC; 22 % removal), moderate residue harvest (MRH; 35 % removal), moderately high residue harvest (MHH; 52 % removal), and high residue harvest (HRH; 83 % removal). Each harvest method was simulated using currently available farm machinery, thus allowing the fractions of standing and laying residue to be estimated as well as the orientation of laying residue, which are important factors for accurately predicting both wind and water erosion [20].
Grain Yield and Stover Quantity
County average yields reported by NASS for 2008 to 2010 were used to establish county-level yield assumptions for residue-producing crops that match those used for the U.S. Billion Ton Update [1]. A 1:1 grain:residue ratio was assumed for all yields, such that any increase in yield would result in an equal increase in potentially available corn stover.
Cover Crops
This study extends the methodology developed by Muth et al. [20] by including a cover crop. A winter rye cover crop was applied to all crop rotations, even though there are a number of agronomic challenges that must be overcome within each of the five states before this practice will be routinely implemented without any negative impacts on grain production or harvest operations [43]. However, since this study’s objective is to investigate potential impacts of cover crops on sustainable stover availability, challenges associated with implementing cover crops are not accounted for.
Vegetative Barriers
The work of Muth et al. [20] was further extended by including vegetative barriers modeled as a 3 m wide, single native perennial grass barrier located in the middle of each slope profile (Fig. 1). The standard representation and description of vegetative buffers from the RUSLE2 management database was used [30]. A wide range of representative slope lengths were modeled because of the broad geographic region represented by the study area. The use of only a single buffer for all slope lengths was done to simplify development and execution of the management practices. Therefore, this assumption provides a conservative estimate of potential opportunities for using vegetative buffers to increase sustainable quantities of stover harvest.
Determining Sustainable Removal Rates
Two sets of criteria were used to establish sustainable stover harvest rates. The first represents standard NRCS conservation planning and is considered sustainable if (1) the combined soil loss from wind and water erosion is <T as reported in SSURGO and (2) soil organic matter is not being depleted, as indicated by a combined SCI factor >0. For each removal rate analyzed, simulated wind and water erosion outputs were combined to provide a total erosion value that was tested to be <T. The LEAF output for the SCI was then tested to be >0. If both of those conditions were met, then the removal rate was considered sustainable.
A second sustainability criterion was applied to be even more rigorous and conservative. This required that (1) soil erosion levels were <1/2 T for each soil and (2) the combined SCI factor and SCI-organic matter (OM) subfactor were both positive, indicating that organic matter is, at a minimum, being maintained at current levels with increasing likelihood that levels will actually increase. This second, more stringent criterion was applied to address concerns that erosion levels approaching T are still significantly higher than soil formation rates [10]. The second target also represents a more conservative approach for ensuring organic matter is not being depleted.
County- and State-Level Residue Quantities
The maximum sustainable removal rate for each soil-rotation-tillage-yield land unit combination was determined using the sustainability metrics on a county-level basis. Each SSURGO soil was given a relative area percentage for each county. All crop rotations, tillage management practices, and conservation management practices for a county were assumed to be evenly distributed across the area for each soil in that county. The county average sustainable stover removal rate, CR, for each management scenario including adoption of a cover crop and/or vegetative barrier is
$$ {\mathrm{CR}}_i={\sum}_j\left({\alpha}_j{\sum}_k\left({\beta}_k{\sum}_l\left({\gamma}_lc{r}_{j,k,l}\right)\right)\right) $$
(1)
where α
j
is the fraction of the area of each j soil, β
k
is the fraction of the area that is in k rotation, γ
l
is the fraction of the area in l tillage regime, and cr
j,k,l
is the sustainable residue removal rate for j soil in k rotation and l tillage regime. State-level sustainably removable residue totals are determined by summing the sustainable residue available in each of the state’s counties. All residue quantities are reported in dry metric tons.