Abstract
Earthquakes are prominent natural hazards that cause loss of life and property in residential areas in the world. The Aegean Graben system is geologically under the influence of the Western Anatolian Opening Regime. There are many active fault lines that can be a source of earthquake activity in the Aegean Graben system. Many earthquakes have been recorded in the region, which have caused serious material and moral damages from the past to the present. This situation reveals the importance of investigation this region in detail and by this way is possible to reduce the risks and consequences of earthquakes. In the study, earthquake data from three different earthquake catalogs were examined, and the earthquakes recorded between 1970 and 2020 in the region were declustered and homogenized in the scale of magnitude wave (Mw). Then, the data are clustered based on the seismic classification via k-means cluster analysis. By this way, the predictions for sequential transition of earthquakes within time and magnitude of the earthquakes are analyzed with a stochastic model, namely Markov chain. It has been concluded that the row probability values of the transition matrices of the earthquake transition probabilities between the clusters of the Aegean Region are fixed values depending on time. We also found an equilibrium distribution for the region. Hence, the probability of an earthquake in Cluster 1 in the region is 30%, Cluster 2–33% and Cluster 3–37%, respectively. We then obtain mean passage time of the earthquakes in each cluster. The results suggest that all clusters have similar characteristics as regard to earthquake sequencing. For these reasons, we finally study the without clustering to find the magnitude transitions depending on the time with Markov chain analysis.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Not applicable.
References
Akın C, Yağmurlu F (2020) Akşehir Grabeninin Depremselliği. İleri Mühendislik Çalışmaları Teknol Derg 1(2):162–170
Altunel E (1999) Geological and geomorphological observations in relation to the 20 September 1899 Menderes earthquake, western Turkey. J Geol Soc Lond 156:241–246
Bayrak Y, Yılmaztürk A, Öztürk S (2005) Relationships between fundamental seismic hazard parameters for the different source regions in Turkey. Nat Hazards 36:445–462
Bonev N, Beccaletto L (2007) From syn-to post-orogenic tertiary extension in the north Aegean region: constraints on the kinematics in the eastern Rhodope-Thrace, Bulgaria– Greece and the Biga Peninsula, NW Turkey. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ 291:113–142
Bozkurt E (2000) Timing of extension on the Büyük Menderes Graben, western Turkey, and its tectonic implications. In Tectonics and Magmatism in Turkey and the Surrounding Area, 385–403. Geol Soc London Special Publication 173
Cavers M, Vasudevan K (2015) Spatio-temporal complex Markov Chain (SCMC) model using directed graphs: Earthquake sequencing. Pure Appl Geophys 172(2):225–241
Cohen HA, Dart C, Akyüz HS, Barka A (1995) Synrift sedimentation and structural development of the Gediz and Buyuk Menderes grabens, western Turkey. J Geol Soc Lond 152:629–638
Danese M, Lazzari M, Murante B (2009) Geostatistics in historical macroseismic data analysis. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, vol 5730, p 324-341
Durak S (2008) Ege Bölgesinde yaygın olarak kullanılan yığma yapılar ve bu yapıların deprem güvenliği (Master's thesis, Pamukkale Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü)
Flerit F, Armijo R, King G, Meyer B (2004) The mechanical interaction between the propagating North Anatolian Fault and the back-arc extension in the Aegean. Earth Planet Sci Lett 224:347–362
Gardner JK, Knopoff L (1974) Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5):1363–1367
Ghazal TM, Hussain MZ, Said RA, Nadeem A, Hasan MK et al (2021) Performances of K-means clustering algorithm with different distance metrics. Intell Autom Soft Comput 30(2):735–742
Görgün E (2013) Analysis of the b-values before and after the 23 October 2011 Mw 7.2 Van-Erciş Turkey earthquake. Tectonophysics 603:213–221
Görgün E, Zang A, Bohnhoff M, Milkereit C, Dresen G (2009) Analysis of Izmit aftershocks 25 days before the November 12th 1999 Düzce earthquake, Turkey. Tectonophysics 474(3–4):507–515
Govender P, Sivakumar V (2020) Application of k-means and hierarchical clustering techniques for analysis of air pollution: A review (1980–2019). Atmos Pollut Res 11(1):40–56
Janssen C, Bohnhoff M, Vapnik Y, Görgün E, Bulut F et al (2009) Tectonic evolution of the Ganos segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NW Turkey). J Struct Geol 31:11–28
Kadirioglu FT, Kartal RF (2016) The new empirical magnitude conversion relations using an improved earthquake catalogue for Turkey and its near vicinity (1900–2012). Turk J Earth Sci 25:300–310
Kalafat D, Görgün E (2017) An example of triggered earthquakes in western Turkey: 2000–2015 Afyon-Akşehir Graben earthquake sequences. J Asian Earth Sci 146:103–113
Kalafat D, Görgün E (2019) Source characteristics and b-values of the Tuz Gölü Fault Zone in Central Anatolia, Turkey. J Asian Earth Sci 179:337–349
Kalyoncuoğlu Y (2007) Evaluation of seismicity and seismic hazard parameters in Turkey and surrounding area using a new approach to the Gutenberg Richter relation. J Seismolog 11:131–148
Karadaş A, Öner E (2021) 30 Ekim 2020 Sisam Depreminin İzmir-Bayraklı’da Yol Açtığı Hasar Üzerinde Bornova Ovasının Alüvyal Jeomorfolojisinin Etkileri. Coğrafya Derg 42:139–153
Kasap R, Gürlen Ü (2003) Obtaining the return period of earthquake magnitudes: as an example Marmara Region. Doğus Univ J 4:157–166
Kestel SS, Yücemen MS (2000) Earthquake reliability of lifeline networks. Turk J Eng Environ Sci 24:143–160
Ketin İ (1968) Relations between general tectonic features and the main earthquake regions of Turkey. Bull Mineral Res Explor 71(71):129–135
Kızılok Kara E, Durukan K (2017) The statistical analysis of the earthquake hazard for Turkey by generalized linear models. Gazi Univ J Sci 30:584–597
Gioncu V, Mazzolani FM (2011) Earthquake engineering for structural design. Spon Press, London
McKenzie DP (1972) Active tectonics of the Mediterranean Region. Ceophys J r Astr Soc 30:109
Mckenzie DP (1978) Active tectonics of the Alpine– Himalayan belt: the Aegean Sea and surrounding regions. Geophys J Roy Astron Soc 55:217–252
Mouslopoulou V, Hristopulos DT (2011) Patterns of tectonic fault interactions captured through geostatistical analysis of microearthquakes. J Geophys Res: Solid Earth B07305:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007804
Nava FA, Herrera C, Frez J, Glowacka E (2005) Seismic hazard evaluation using Markov chains: application to the Japan area. Pure Appl Geophys 162:1347–1366
Nicol A, Walsh J, Mouslopoulou V, Villamor P (2009) Earthquake histories and Holocene acceleration of fault displacement rates. Geology 37:911–914
Novianti P, Setyorini D, Rafflesia U (2017) K-Means cluster analysis in earthquake epicenter clustering. Int J Adv Intell Inf 3(2):81–89
Ogbuabor G, Ugwoke FN (2018) Clustering algorithm for a healthcare dataset using silhouette score value. Int J Comput Sci Inf Technol 102(2018):27–37
Okay AI, Siyako M, Bürkan KA (1991) Geology and tectonic evolution of the Biga Peninsula, northwest Turkey. Bull Tech Univ Istanb 44:191–256
Öncel Çekim H, Tekin S, Özel Kadılar G (2021) Prediction of the earthquake magnitude by time series methods along the East Anatolian Fault, Turkey. Earth Sci Inf 14(3):1339–1348
Özel G (2011) A bivariate compound Poisson model for the occurrence of foreshock and aftershock sequences in Turkey. Environmetrics 22:847–856
Özel G (2013) Ratio estimators using characteristics of Poisson distribution with application to earthquake data, The 7th International Days of Statistics and Economics, 1070-1080, Prague, September 19–21
Öztürk S, Bayrak Y, Cınar H, Koravos GC, Tsapanos TM (2008) A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey. Nat Hazards 47:471–495
Papazachos CB, Kiratzi AA (1996) A detailed study of the active crustal deformation in the Aegean and surrounding area. Tectonophysics 253:129–153
Paton S (1992) Active normal faulting, drainage patterns and sedimentation in southwestern Turkey. J Geol Soc Lond 149:1031–1044
Pınar R, Akciğ Z, Demirel F (1989) Bati anadolu depremselliğinin Markov yöntemi ile arastirilmasi. Jeofizik 3:56–66
Rehioui H, Idrissi A, Abourezq M, Zegrari F (2016) DENCLUE-IM: A new approach for big data clustering. Proc Comput Sci 83:560–567
Selçuk AS, Yücemen MS (2000) Reliability lifeline networks with multiple sources under seismic hazard. Nat Hazards 21:1–18
Şengör AMC, Yılmaz Y (1981) Tethyan evolution of Turkey: a plate tectonic approach. Tectonophysics 75:181–241
Şengör AMC (1982) Effects controlling the Neotectonic activity in Aegean region. Bat Anadolu’nun genc¸ tektonigi ve volkanizması paneli. Turk Jeol Kur 59–71. (in Turkish)
Seyitoğlu G, Scott B (1992) The age of the Büyük Menderes graben (west Turkey) and its tectonic implications. Geol Mag 129:239–242
Shahapure KR, Nicholas C (2020) Cluster quality analysis using silhouette score. In: IEEE 7th International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA), pp 747–748
Sony A, Ajith K, Thomas K, Thomas T, Deepa PL (2011) Video summarization by clustering using euclidean distance. In: International Conference on Signal Processing, Communication, Computing and Networking Technologies, pp 642–646
Sözbilir H (2001) Extensional tectonics and the geometry of related macroscopic structures: field evidence from the Gediz detachment, western Turkey. Turk J Earth Sci 10:51–67
Stein RS, Barka A, Dieterich JH (1997) Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophys J Int 128:594–604
Tağıl Ş (2004) Balıkesir ovası ve yakın çevresinin neotektonik özellikleri ve depremselliği. Coğrafi Bilimler Derg 2(1):73–92
Tağıl Ş, Alevkayalı Ç (2013) Earthquake spatial distribution in the Egean region, Turkey: The geostatistical approach. J Int Soc Res 6(28):369–379
Tan O (2021) A homogeneous earthquake catalogue for Turkey. Nat Hazard 21(7):2059–2073
Telesca L, Lovallo M (2008) Analysis of the temporal properties in car accident time series. Phys A 387(13):3299–3304
Telesca L, Cherkaoui TE, Rouai M (2011) Revealing scaling and cycles in earthquake sequences. Int J Nonlinear Sci 11:137–142
TUBITAK 1001 (2021) Artificial Intelligence and Probabilistic Model Based Earthquake Hazard Map. Project Number: 121F208
Ünal S, Çelebioğlu S (2011) A Markov chain modelling of the earthquakes occurring in Turkey. Gazi Univ J Sci 24:263–274
Ünal S, Çelebioğlu S, Özmen B (2014) Seismic hazard assessment of Turkey by statistical approaches. Turk J Earth Sci 23:350–360
Urhammer RA (1986) Characteristics of northern and central California seismicity. Earthq Notes 1:21
Vasudevan K, Cavers M (2013) Insight into earthquake sequencing: Analysis and interpretation of the time-series of the Markov chain model. In: American Geophysical Union’s Fall Meeting, 2013, NG24A-06.
Yuan C, Yang H (2019) Research on K-value selection method of K-means clustering algorithm. Journal 2(2):226–235. https://doi.org/10.3390/j2020016
Yücemen MS (2005) Probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance rates for Turkey. Nat Hazards 35:291–313
Yücemen MS, Akkaya A (1997) Stochastic models for the estimation of seismic hazard and their comparison, In: Proceedings of the 3rd Earthquake Engineering Conference, İstanbul, Turkey, pp 466–477
Acknowledgements
We like to thank to the support by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) ARDEB 1001 [Project number: 121F208] program. The authors also thank Assoc. Prof. Dr. Senem Tekin for preparing data set and Prof. Dr. Tolga Çan for his valuable advice and the referees for helpful comments, careful reading of the manuscript and detailed suggestions.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the design and study conception. Gamze Özel contributed to the formal analysis, methodology, and writing the original draft. Ceren Ünal contributed to the investigation, methodology, visualization, and writing the original draft. Tuba Eroglu Azak contributed to data curation, research, editing, and visualization. All authors reviewed the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Communicated by H. Babaie
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Ünal, C., Özel, G. & Eroglu Azak, T. A Markov chain approach for earthquake sequencing in the Aegean Graben system of Turkey. Earth Sci Inform 16, 1227–1239 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-023-00961-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-023-00961-5