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The Australian Public’s Concerns about Potential War with China: 2013–2023

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Abstract

The Australian public’s concerns about a potential war with China has recently seen a sharp rise. This study utilizes Google Trends data to gauge the public agenda. Drawing from the Google Trends data in Australia between April 2013 and March 2023, several original conclusions are reached. Firstly, since 2017, the Australian public has strongly associated China-related war activities or threats of war with Australia. Secondly, since early 2020, the concerns of the Australian public towards a potential war with China has significantly increased. This result aligns with findings from conventional polls. Furthermore, these concerns reached its peak in March 2023. Lastly, the fluctuations in the Australian public’s concerns regarding a potential war with China can be attributed to policy and media agendas, with their specific roles varying across different periods. This study contributes to the debate on Australia's China policy by introducing some novel empirical evidence and methods to academia.

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Fig. 1

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.ZS?locations=AU

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Data Availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, [Kerry Liu], upon reasonable request.

Notes

  1. For a list of examples illustrating Chinese influence in Australia, please refer to Liu, K. (2021), "Chinese Influence in Australia: What Do Financial Markets Tell Us?" East Asia, 38.1, pages 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-020-09346-7

  2. For example, New national security offenses were incorporated into the existing law. A registration scheme was established for individuals representing foreign entities. Political contributions from foreign entities were banned, and the Australian federal government gained the authority to annul any agreements made by state, territory governments, or universities. For more detailed information, please refer to "Australia-China Relations" written by Geoff Wade, accessible at https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook47p/AustraliaChinaRelations

  3. To access time series data spanning from 1967 and explore the evolving perception of China as a threat among the Australian public, refer to the study conducted by Chubb and McAllister (2021a). Their research illustrates how Australians' views of China's threat have fluctuated over time.

  4. See Goodman, K S G. (2017) Australia and the China Threat: managing ambiguity. The Pacific Review 30:5: 769–782. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1339118

  5. See Liu, K. (2023) Decoding Australia's China threat narrative during 2016–2021. Asia Pacific Viewpoint 64.1 (2023): 126–141. https://doi.org/10.1111/apv.12352

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Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank two anonymous referees for valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper. All errors are the author’s sole responsibility.

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    Kerry Liu

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Appendices

Appendix 1

Fig. 4
figure 4

The Front Pages of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age on 7 March 2023. Source: The Guardian https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e4b0d566ea4837109d0bb3fcd8dd65063fd67f3b/0_0_2766_1660/master/2766.jpg?width=620&quality=45&dpr=2&s=none

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Appendix 2

Fig. 5
figure 5

The Australian Public’s Sentiment about China War Concerns: Daily Data (Normalized) Key phrases: “China War” and “China Australia War;” Geographic location: Australia; Time period: 1 August 2022–31 March 2023; Number of Data Items: 243

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Liu, K. The Australian Public’s Concerns about Potential War with China: 2013–2023. East Asia (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-023-09420-w

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