Abstract
Based on Vietnam’s 2009 population census, we use a population prediction model with three schemes (high, medium, and low) to predict the population and structural changes in Vietnam from 2010 to 2049, and we analyze the trend of Vietnam’s future aging population. Our results show that (1) Vietnam’s population will continue to increase in the next 40 years, but the population growth rate will continue to decline, and the population will exceed 100 million in approximately 2024; (2) Vietnam’s demographic structure will change significantly as the fertility level and life expectancy increase; and (3) Vietnam will enter an aging society starting in 2018, while the degree of aging will continue to deepen. The proportion of the population over the age of 60 in Vietnam will exceed 25% of the total population by 2049. In the next 40 years, Vietnam will face the severe challenge of an aging population.
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Notes
The equation shifts the female population cohort to the middle of the year to consistent with the median cohort population in the age-specific fertility rate.
The determination of the ratio of 80:20% refers to the actual data of the 2009 Vietnam census. Considering that the continued decline in the future fertility level includes a decline in the second birth fertility rate and the reduction of the three and above birth fertility rate, we keep the ratio unchanged.
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Handong, L., Hongngoc, N. & Tianmin, Z. Vietnam’s Population Projections and Aging Trends from 2010 to 2049. Population Ageing 14, 165–182 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-019-09257-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-019-09257-3