Abstract
This study analyzes the role of energy intensity improvement in the short term (to the year 2020) and midterm (to the year 2050) in the context of long-term greenhouse gases (GHG) stabilization scenarios. The data come from the latest Emissions Scenarios Database and were reviewed in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this study, quantitative decomposition analyses using the extended Kaya identity are applied to the stabilization scenarios in Categories I to IV of Table SPM.5 in the AR4. Furthermore, quantitative decomposition analyses of Category IV scenarios are conducted for major GHG-emitting countries, such as the USA, Western Europe, China, and India, by utilizing the large number of reports in the database. This study provides in-depth analyses of the relationship between energy intensity improvement and other major indicators. One finding is that energy intensity improvement plays an important role in the short term, and the rate of energy intensity improvement is assumed to be around 2% per year as a median value across Categories I–III in the midterm on the global scale. However, achieving stringent stabilization levels requires various other measures regarding the use of less-carbon intensive fossil fuels, the shift to non-fossil fuel energies, and advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The database is supported by the Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES).
In the database, “baseline scenario” and “mitigation scenario” are defined as follows. According to the IPCC, scenarios are described as “alternative images of how the future might unfold and an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties” (IPCC 2000) surrounding climate change. A baseline (or reference) scenario is described as “a non-intervention scenario used as a base in the analysis of intervention scenarios,” and a mitigation (or intervention) scenario is described as “a description and a quantified projection of how GHG emissions can be reduced in comparison to respective baseline scenarios” (IPCC 2001).
References
De la Chesnaye, F. C., & Weyant, J. P. (2006). EMF21 special issue: multi-greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy. The Energy Journal, 3, 1–520.
Edenhofer, O., Carraro, C., Kohler, J., & Grubb, M. (2006). Special issue: endogenous technological change and the economics of atmospheric stabilization. The Energy Journal, 1, 1–283.
Hanaoka, T., Kainuma, M., Kawase, R., & Matsuoka, Y. (2006a). Emissions scenarios database and regional mitigation analysis: a review of mitigation scenarios since the IPCC third assessment report. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 7(3), 367–389.
Hanaoka, T., Kawase, R., Kainuma, M., Matsuoka, Y., Ishii, H., & Oka, K. (2006b). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios Database and Regional Mitigation Analysis. Japan: Center for Global Environmental Research. National Institute for Environmental Studies CGER Research Report (CGER-D038-2006).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1996). Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001). Climate change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Matsuoka, Y., & Morita, T. (1994). Recent Global GHG Emission Scenarios and their Climate Consequences. Environmental Systems Research, 22, 359–368 (in Japanese).
Morita, T., & Lee, H. (1998). IPCC Emission Scenarios Database. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Changes, 3(2–4), 121–131.
Morita, T., Nakicenovic, N., & Robinson, J. (2000a). Overview of Mitigation Scenarios for Global Climate Stabilization based on New IPCC Emission Scenarios (SRES). Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 3(2), 65–88.
Morita, T., Nakicenovic, N., & Robinson, J. (2000b). The Relationship between Technological Development Paths and the Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in Global Emissions Scenarios. Japan: Center for Global Environmental Research. National Institute for Environmental Studies CGER Research Report (CGER-I044-2000).
Morita, T., Robinson, J., Adegbulugbe, A., Alcamo, J., Herbert, D., Lebre La Rovere, E., et al. (2001). Greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios and implications. In Climate change 2001: Mitigation, Report of Working Group III of the IPCC pp. 115–166. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Nakicenovic, N., Victor, N., & Morita, T. (1998). Emissions scenarios database and review of scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Warming, 3, 95–120.
Nakicenovic, N., Kolp, P., Riahi, K., Kainuma, M., & Hanaoka, T. (2006). Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 7(3), 37–173 (2006).
Rana, A., & Morita, T. (2000). Scenarios for greenhouse gas emission mitigation: a review of modeling of strategies and policies in integrated assessment models. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 3(2), 267–289.
Weyant, J. P. (2004). EMF 19 Special Issue: Alternative technology strategies for climate change policy. Energy Economics, 26(4), 501–755.
Yamaji, K., Matsuhashi, M., Nagata, Y., & Kaya, Y. (1991). An Integrated System for CO2/Energy/GNP Analysis: Case Studies on Economic Measures for CO2 Reduction in Japan. Workshop on CO2 Reduction and Removal: Measures for the Next Century, 19-21 March 1991. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Acknowledgements
The Emissions Scenarios Database has been supported by the Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan. We acknowledge the generosity of this fund. We would like to thank all of the corresponding authors who kindly submitted the relevant data reviewed by the IPCC AR4, which were added to the latest Emissions Scenarios Database. We would also like to thank Prof. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Dr. Keywan Riahi, and Mr. Peter Kolp at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, who helped us to collect the data on emissions and the mitigation scenarios.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hanaoka, T., Kainuma, M. & Matsuoka, Y. The role of energy intensity improvement in the AR4 GHG stabilization scenarios. Energy Efficiency 2, 95–108 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-009-9045-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-009-9045-y