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How well does MPAS simulate the West African Monsoon?

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Abstract

The West African Monsoon (WAM) system plays a crucial role in the West African climate system because it transports moisture from the Atlantic Ocean into the subcontinent in summer. This study evaluates the capability of the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) to simulate the characteristic reproduce the WAM system and the associated rainfall-producing features. The MPAS model was used to perform a 30-year global climate simulation (1981–2010) at a regular grid (uniform resolution of 60 km). The simulation was initialized with the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CSFR) dataset. The results showed that MPAS simulate well the rainfall pattern over West Africa and reproduces the different phases of the monsoon dynamics system (i.e., the northward progression, the peak period, and the southward retreat). The model also reasonably replicates the pattern of the zonal components of wind and the vertical velocity. However, MPAS underestimates the orographic rainfall over the Guinea Coast, Jos Plateau, and Mount Cameroon. It also underestimates the vertical velocity and zonal wind magnitudes over the region. In addition, the model features a weaker temperature gradient than in the reanalysis. Understanding and correcting the sources of these model biases will enhance the suitability of MPAS for weather and seasonal forecasts over West Africa.

Research highlights

In this study, we investigated the ability of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) to simulate the West African monsoon rainfall, the associated atmospheric features controlling the variability of the seasonal and annual cycle, and the thermal wind conditions. First, the model is initialized using the CSFR reanalysis. Then, we run the model simulation for 30 years, from 1981 to 2010, using a regular grid (uniform resolution of 60 km). We showed that the model realistically simulated the spatial pattern of rainfall over West Africa. However, it has some problems when it comes to capturing the monsoon features.

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Acknowledgements

My sincere appreciation goes to the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the West African Science Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) for providing the scholarship and financial support for this programme.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) Graduate Research Program, Federal University of Technology Akure, Akure, Nigeria

    Laouali I Tanimoune, Nimon Pouwereou & Vincent O Ajayi

  2. Climate Systems Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Babatunde J Abiodun

  3. Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany

    Harald Kunstmann & Gerhard Smiatek

  4. Centre Regional AGRHYMET, Niamey, Niger

    Ibrah S Sanda

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  1. Laouali I Tanimoune
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  2. Babatunde J Abiodun
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  4. Harald Kunstmann
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Contributions

Laouali I Tanimoune carried out the experiment, analysed the data, coordinated this research and drafted the first manuscript. Babatunde J Abiodun supervised and assisted in drafting the manuscript. Nimon Pouwereou assisted in the data analysis. Harald Kunstmann supervised one part of the research and edited the paper. Gerhard Smiatek contributed to the modelling aspect of the paper. Vincent O Ajayi contributed to correcting the grammatical aspect of the paper. Ibrah S Sanda contributed to the model's setup.

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Correspondence to Laouali I Tanimoune.

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Communicated by Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay

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Tanimoune, L.I., Abiodun, B.J., Pouwereou, N. et al. How well does MPAS simulate the West African Monsoon?. J Earth Syst Sci 133, 56 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02245-4

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