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Appraisal of water stress regions of Godavari basin for climate resilient water resource management: A GIS-MCDA based approach

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Abstract

Godavari basin, a rain-fed and the second largest river basin in India has witnessed numerous extreme events of droughts and floods in recent decades, having major implications on the water resource situation of the basin. The present study is an attempt to assess the near-future water stress zones of the basin by analysing seven variables under GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA): dryness intensity (DI), dry-episodes frequency (DF), wet-episodes frequency (WF), annual rainfall trend (RfT), dry days trend (DD), population growth rate (PGR) and groundwater fluctuation rate (GWR). The weight of the variables was assigned by analytical hierarchical process (AHP), and water stress regions were identified using weighted linear combination (WLC) under GIS-MCDA. DI, DF and WF for the last three decades of this basin were calculated using the 9-month Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-9). Mann–Kendall's test and Sen’s slope were used to examine the dry and wet trends in SPEI-9 and estimate the groundwater fluctuation rate. The analysis shows that if the current trends of the seven climatic, hydrologic and demographic variables persist, then the interior districts of the basin will be prone to high water stress risk in the near future. This study has identified the districts that need urgent structural and non-structural changes in the current water resource management practices to sustain the future climate change challenges.

Highlights:

  • Examined the frequency and intensity of dry and wet episodes between 1990 and 2019 of the Godavari basin at the sub-basin level using Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI–9 months).

  • Mann–Kendall’s test shows that Manjra and Pranhita register strong dryness trend during most of the months of a year.

  • The maximum decline (> 10 cm bgl y–1) of groundwater is recorded in Upper Godavari, Middle Godavari, Manjra and parts of Wardah and Pranhita.

  • GIS-MCDA-based water stress risk assessment found that the interior districts of the basin are more prone to high water stress in near future.

  • Identified the districts that need urgent structural and non-structural changes in the current water resource management practices.

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Acknowledgement

I am grateful to the assistant editor and anonymous reviewers of JESS for their constructive reviews and thoughtful comments, which helped in refining the manuscript.

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  1. Department of Geography, Indraprastha College for Women, University of Delhi, Delhi, 110 054, India

    Soma Sarkar

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Soma Sarkar: conceptualising the problem, study plan, data collection, data modelling and analysis, interpretation of results and drafting the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Soma Sarkar.

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Communicated by C T Dhanya

Corresponding editor: C T Dhanya

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Sarkar, S. Appraisal of water stress regions of Godavari basin for climate resilient water resource management: A GIS-MCDA based approach. J Earth Syst Sci 132, 182 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02196-w

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