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Investigations on the hydrological impacts of climate change on a river basin using macroscale model H08

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Abstract

In this study, the hydrometeorological impacts of climate change in the Upper Godavari River basin in India are quantified for historical and future periods using a well-calibrated hydrological model H08. The study provides a quantitative assessment of various hydrological fluxes projected for the future that are useful in water resource planning and management. The results revealed that under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, the rainfall in the entire basin was projected to increase by ~24.4% (33%) and temperature by ~2.3°C (4.65°C), the runoff increased by ~44.8% (63%) and the evapotranspiration increased by ~9.8% (12%), by the end of 21st century in the basin. Further, changes were larger in the wet season for all the variables except temperature, which had a larger change in the dry season. This shows that rainfall will be more frequent in the wet season and will result in high runoff generation that may result in a flood-like situation. These results are useful for adaptive measures required to deal with possible climate change impacts in the basin to ensure food and water security.

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Acknowledgements

We are highly grateful to Dr Naota Hanasaki for his continuous support in setting up the model and sharing the source code. The authors are thankful to the Editor and reviewers for their valuable comments, which helped to improve the manuscript.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400 076, India

    Pushpendra Raghav & T I Eldho

  2. Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400 076, India

    T I Eldho

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  1. Pushpendra Raghav
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Both the authors performed this research. Pushpendra Raghav developed the model, run the model and plotted the results. The first draft of the manuscript is written by Pushpendra Raghav and Eldho T I reviewed and improved the quality of the manuscript. The final manuscript is approved by both the authors.

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Correspondence to T I Eldho.

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Communicated by C T Dhanya

Supplementary material pertaining to this article is available on the Journal of Earth System Science website (http://www.ias.ac.in/Journals/Journal_of_Earth_System_Science).

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Raghav, P., Eldho, T.I. Investigations on the hydrological impacts of climate change on a river basin using macroscale model H08. J Earth Syst Sci 132, 87 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02102-4

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