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Permafrost in the Upper Indus Basin: An active layer dynamics

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Abstract

Permafrost in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in Ladakh, India, is a critical water source and is less studied. Identifying permafrost and its characteristics is a crucial knowledge gap in the UIB. Thus, understanding the permafrost active layer dynamics is critical and essential due to its implications on regional hydrology, infrastructure stability, and disaster occurrence. For this purpose, an experimental site is prepared with 11 plots having two near-surface ground temperature loggers each, i.e., 22 in total, in the upper Ganglass catchment, a sub-region of the UIB, Ladakh. The permafrost active layer thickness characteristics and its thaw progression are simulated using the 1-D GEOtop model with forcing from these 22 loggers from 2016 to 2020. The snow days are calculated using the near-surface ground temperature. The simulation results show no permafrost at 4727 m a.s.l. consistently, whereas all the plots above 4900 m a.s.l. show permafrost active layer thickness, in particular, up to 4 m at 4942 m a.s.l. Permafrost characteristics significantly differ between a warmer (colder) year with low (high) snow. The mean surface offset of the catchment ranges between −0.01° and 5.5°C. These findings on permafrost and associated periglacial processes will provide a critical knowledge base for the stability of high-elevation infrastructure, glacial lakes, regional hydrology and climate, particularly for water.

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Acknowledgements

JMW, on behalf of RJT (Deceased), thanks to Director, NIH, Dr J V Tyagi and Head, WRS division, Dr Sanjay K Jain, for their encouragement and support. The financial support under the National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS), MoEFCC, Gov. of India (GBPNI/NMHS-2019-20/ MG265) and SERB project (EMR/2015/000887) is duly acknowledged. We also to thank the GEOtop developers for keeping the model open-source. The GEOtop model 2.0 (Endrizzi et al. 2014) source code is freely available and can be found at https://github.com/geotopmodel/geotop/tree/se27xx (last access: August 13, 2021). Data analysis and plotting were performed using R (Wickham 2016; Wickham and Francois 2016; Wickham et al. 2019; R Core Team 2021).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110 067, India

    John Mohd Wani & A P Dimri

  2. National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India

    John Mohd Wani & Renoj J Thayyen

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  1. Deceased.

    • Renoj J Thayyen
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Contributions

JMW carried out the data collection in the field, performed data processing and analysis, GEOtop model simulations and contributed to manuscript writing. APD assisted with data collection and manuscript preparation, RJT set up field instruments, planned fieldwork for instrumentation and data collection and participated in the data interpretation and manuscript preparation.

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Correspondence to A P Dimri.

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Communicated by Somnath Dasgupta

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Wani, J.M., Dimri, A.P. & Thayyen, R.J. Permafrost in the Upper Indus Basin: An active layer dynamics. J Earth Syst Sci 132, 61 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02074-5

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