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Influence of vertical wind shear on the maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

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Abstract

The formation and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) are greatly influenced by environmental thermodynamic and dynamic factors. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) region showed a significant amount of month-wise variability in terms of TC activity. We evaluated Emanuel’s maximum potential intensity (EMPI) model of TCs for the BoB region. A significant discrepancy was observed between month-wise EMPI distribution and TC formation locations, especially during the monsoon (June–September). Thermodynamic parameters that influence the EMPI, such as sea surface temperature, relative humidity and thermodynamic efficiency, were also examined. The EMPI during monsoon was lowest compared to pre-monsoon (March–May) and post-monsoon (October–December). The lower EMPI during monsoon was due to increased relative humidity, whereas higher sea surface temperature and lower relative humidity resulted in higher EMPI during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon, respectively. The most striking observation was that the thermodynamic efficiency was negatively correlated with EMPI during the monsoon. It was further observed that TCs were achieved only 42.82% of their estimated EMPI. We have introduced a modified maximum potential intensity (MMPI) model incorporating dynamic factors such as vertical wind shear. The MMPI significantly reduced the absolute difference between the observed and estimated TC peak intensity to 2.61 kts from 60.44 kts for the EMPI. The MMPI also efficiently portrayed the month-wise spatial variability of TC formation locations over the BoB.

Research highlights

  1. 1.

    Maximum potential intensity (MPI) varies significantly season-wise over the Bay of Bengal.

  2. 2.

    Tropical cyclones only archive half of their theoretical MPI due to negative impact of vertical wind shear.

  3. 3.

    Inclusion of dynamic factors such as vertical wind shear in MPI model can significantly reduce the deviation between MPI and TC intensity.

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Acknowledgement

The first author is thankful to the University Grants Commission of India for funding the research work under the scheme of ‘JRF in Science, Humanities & Social Sciences’.

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  1. Department of Geography, Presidency University, Kolkata, India

    Abhisek Pal & Soumendu Chatterjee

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  1. Abhisek Pal
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  2. Soumendu Chatterjee
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Conceptualization of the work, data analysis and manuscript writing have been done by the first author. The second author has approved the manuscript and given critical suggestions all along the work.

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Correspondence to Abhisek Pal.

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Communicated by Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay

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Pal, A., Chatterjee, S. Influence of vertical wind shear on the maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region. J Earth Syst Sci 131, 255 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-022-02003-y

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