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A Case Study on Modeling the Time to Recurrence of Gastric Cancer Patients

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Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer Aims and scope Submit manuscript

An Author Correction to this article was published on 21 September 2021

This article has been updated

Abstract

Background

Gastric cancer is a malignant tumor of the stomach and it is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. The study aimed to model the time to first recurrence of gastric cancer patients at the Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital.

Methods

The data for this study were gastric cancer patients followed up from January 1, 2013 to February 29, 2020 at Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital, Oncology Center, Addis Ababa. We used Weibull, log-logistic and lognormal as baseline hazard functions with the gamma and the inverse Gaussian frailty distributions. Data analyzed with the statistical software R.

Results

The median recurrence time of the patients was about 23.96 months with a maximum recurrence time of 60.81 months, of which about 61.2% had first recurrences of gastric cancer. The clustering effect is significant in modeling the time to recurrence of gastric cancer. According to the result of the log-logistic inverse Gaussian frailty model, the sex of the patient, the tumor size, smoking habit, the treatment carried out, the vascular invasion, the stage of the disease, the helicobacter pylori infection and the histological type were the significant prognostic factors  at 5% level of significance.

Conclusion

Inverse Gaussian frailty model is the model that best describes the time to recurrence of the gastric cancer data set. Gender of the patients, tumor size, treatment taken, vascular invasion, disease stage, helicobacter pylori infection and histological type were the determining prognostic factors. This requires measures to improve patient health and prevent relapse based on significant risk factors, and particular attention should be paid to patients with such factors.

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Availability of Data and Materials

The datasets used in this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Change history

Abbreviations

TASH:

Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital

HR:

Hazard ratio

GC:

Gastric cancer

GI:

Gastrointestinal

NGI:

Non-gastro intestinal

WDT:

Well-differentiated tumor

PDT:

Poorly differentiated tumor

SRC:

Signet ring cell

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thanks Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital for allowing this data to be collected from patients’ cards.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics, College of Natural Science and Computational, Mizan Tepi University, Tepi, Ethiopia

    Mesfin Esayas Lelisho & Adem Aregaw Seid

  2. Department of Technical Education, IET, Dr. A.P.J.Abdul Kalam Technical University Uttar Pradesh, Lucknow, 226021, India

    Digvijay Pandey

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  1. Mesfin Esayas Lelisho
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  2. Adem Aregaw Seid
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Contributions

Study conception and design, data collection, analysis and interpretation of results, and manuscript preparation: (Mesfin Esayas). Finally, all authors read and approved the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Digvijay Pandey.

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Ethics Approval and Consent to Participate

Ethical clearance for this study was obtained from the Jimma University Institute of the research review board. The author requested access to the data from Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital and access was granted to use the data for this study.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

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The original online version of this article was revised: The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. Abstract and keywords are previously not included.

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Lelisho, M.E., Seid, A.A. & Pandey, D. A Case Study on Modeling the Time to Recurrence of Gastric Cancer Patients. J Gastrointest Canc 53, 218–228 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12029-021-00684-0

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