Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Importance of Recent Fracture as Predictor of Imminent Fracture Risk

  • Epidemiology and Pathophysiology (F Cosman and D Shoback, Section Editors)
  • Published:
Current Osteoporosis Reports Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose of Review

To examine the importance of recent fracture as a predictor of imminent fracture risk, review the importance of prior fracture type and timing, and identify risk factors for recurrent osteoporotic fracture.

Recent Findings

Prior fracture type and timing impact risk of subsequent fracture that is largely independent of bone mineral density. Site of re-fracture is similar to original major osteoporotic fracture. Incidence of recurrent major osteoporotic fracture is greatest within the first year. Other risk factors include those that pertain to individual characteristics. Approved osteoporosis therapies reduce risk of recurrent fracture.

Summary

Prior fracture timing, type, and individual characteristics are important components of predicting the risk of future fracture. Initiation of osteoporosis medication therapy should be started after initial fracture to reduce the risk of future fracture, though these medications typically take 6–12 months to have an effect, during which time is the highest rate of imminent re-fracture.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

Papers of particular interest, published recently, have been highlighted as: • Of importance •• Of major importance

  1. • Bonafede M, Shi N, Barron R, Li X, Crittenden DB, Chandler D. Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data. Arch Osteoporos. 2016;11(1):26. This paper looked at patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk of fracture including age, health status, comorbidities, and fall risk factors.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Kanis JA, Johnell O, De Laet C, Johansson H, Oden A, Delmas P, et al. A meta-analysis of previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk. Bone. 2004;35(2):375–82.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Klotzbuecher CM, Ross PD, Landsman PB, Abbott TA 3rd, Berger M. Patients with prior fractures have an increased risk of future fractures: a summary of the literature and statistical synthesis. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2000;15(4):721–39.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Johnell O, Kanis JA, Oden A, Sernbo I, Redlund-Johnell I, Petterson C, et al. Fracture risk following an osteoporotic fracture. Osteoporos Int. 2004;15(3):175–9.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. • Center JR. Fracture burden: what two and a half decades of dubbo osteoporosis epidemiology study data reveal about clinical outcomes of osteoporosis. Curr Osteoporos Rep. 2017;15(2):88–95. This review highlights the important clinical findings of the 25 year-long Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study in Australia including the association between low trama fractures in the elderly and poor outcomes, particularly in the first few years post fracture.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Ettinger B, Ray GT, Pressman AR, Gluck O. Limb fractures in elderly men as indicators of subsequent fracture risk. Arch Intern Med. 2003;163(22):2741–7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. • Weaver J, Sajjan S, Lewiecki EM, Harris ST, Marvos P. Prevalence and cost of subsequent fractures among U.S. patients with an incident fracture. J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2017;23(4):461–71. This retrospective claims database analysis examines the prevalence and cost of subsequent fractures among Medicare and commerically-insured enrollees.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Center JR, Bliuc D, Nguyen TV, Eisman JA. Risk of subsequent fracture after low-trauma fracture in men and women. Jama. 2007;297(4):387–94.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. •• Roux S, Cabana F, Carrier N, Beaulieu MC, Boire G. Risk of subsequent fragility fractures observed after low-trauma ankle fractures. Calcif Tissue Int. 2018;103(1):62–70. This paper examines the characteristics of patients with low-trauma ankle fragility fractures who develop subsequent fragility fractures and found that ankle fragility fractures themselves do not predict subsequent fragility fractures overall.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. • Hansen L, Petersen KD, Eriksen SA, Langdahl BL, Eiken PA, Brixen K, et al. Subsequent fracture rates in a nationwide population-based cohort study with a 10-year perspective. Osteoporos Int. 2015;26(2):513–9. This paper reviews the incidence of all and subsequent fractures in a 10-year period from a national database in Denmark.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Haentjens P, Johnell O, Kanis JA, Bouillon R, Cooper C, Lamraski G, et al. Evidence from data searches and life-table analyses for gender-related differences in absolute risk of hip fracture after Colles' or spine fracture: Colles' fracture as an early and sensitive marker of skeletal fragility in white men. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2004;19(12):1933–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Giangregorio LM, Leslie WD. Time since prior fracture is a risk modifier for 10-year osteoporotic fractures. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2010;25(6):1400–5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. •• Johansson H, Siggeirsdottir K, Harvey NC, Oden A, Gudnason V, McCloskey E, et al. Imminent risk of fracture after fracture. Osteoporos Int. 2017;28(3):775–80. This paper demonstrates that the risk of major osteoporotic fracture after a first major osteoporotic fracture is increased, particularly within the first 12 months after fracture.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Curtis JR, Arora T, Matthews RS, Taylor A, Becker DJ, Colon-Emeric C, et al. Is withholding osteoporosis medication after fracture sometimes rational? A comparison of the risk for second fracture versus death. J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2010;11(8):584–91.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. • Keshishian A, Boytsov N, Burge R, Krohn K, Lombard L, Zhang X, et al. Examining the treatment gap and risk of subsequent fractures among females with a fragility fracture in the US Medicare population. J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2017;28(8):2485–94. This paper presents data from a retrospective, observational cohort using the national Medicare database looking at the impact of osteoporosis treatment on subsequent fragility fractures and found in the US Medicare population, osteoporosis treatment signficantly reduced the risk of fragility fractures.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Edwards BJ, Bunta AD, Simonelli C, Bolander M, Fitzpatrick LA. Prior fractures are common in patients with subsequent hip fractures. Clin Orthop Relat Res. 2007;461:226–30.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  17. Morin SN, Lix LM, Leslie WD. The importance of previous fracture site on osteoporosis diagnosis and incident fractures in women. J Bone Miner Res Off J Am Soc Bone Miner Res. 2014;29(7):1675–80.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Ryg J, Rejnmark L, Overgaard S, Brixen K, Vestergaard P. Hip fracture patients at risk of second hip fracture: a nationwide population-based cohort study of 169,145 cases during 1977–2001. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2009;24(7):1299–307.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. •• Balasubramanian A, Zhang J, Chen L, Wenkert D, Daigle S, Grauer A, et al. Risk of subsequent fracture after prior fracture among older women. Osteoporos Int. 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-018-4732-1. This retrospective cohort study using Medicare administrative claims data found a high and early risk of subsequent fracture following a broad array of initial fractures.

  20. Burge R, Dawson-Hughes B, Solomon DH, Wong JB, King A, Tosteson A. Incidence and economic burden of osteoporosis-related fractures in the United States, 2005–2025. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2007;22(3):465–75.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Dretakis KE, Dretakis EK, Papakitsou EF, Psarakis S, Steriopoulos K. Possible predisposing factors for the second hip fracture. Calcif Tissue Int. 1998;62(4):366–9.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. • van Dort MJ, Geusens P, Driessen JHM, Romme E, Smeenk F, Wouters EFM, et al. High imminent vertebral fracture risk in subjects with COPD with a prevalent or incident vertebral fracture. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2018;33(7):1233–41. This paper examines the incidence and prevalence of subsequent vertebral fractures in a patient population with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Lindsay R, Silverman SL, Cooper C, Hanley DA, Barton I, Broy SB, et al. Risk of new vertebral fracture in the year following a fracture. JAMA. 2001;285(3):320–3.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. • Deloumeau A, Molto A, Roux C, Briot K. Determinants of short term fracture risk in patients with a recent history of low-trauma non-vertebral fracture. Bone. 2017;105:287–91. This paper shows that a history of recent fracture plays a major role in the risk of recurrent fracture. It also demonstrates that very few individuals were receiving osteoporosis medication therapy when they experienced a subsequent fracture.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. •• Cosman F, Krege JH, Looker AC, Schousboe JT, Fan B, Sarafrazi Isfahani N, et al. Spine fracture prevalence in a nationally representative sample of US women and men aged ≥40 years: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013–2014. Osteoporos Int. 2017;28(6):1857–66. This paper reports the spine fracture prevalence in a nationally representative sample of US women and men aged ≥ 40 years from NHANES data and shows that most individuals are unaware of spine fracture.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. • Dewan N, JC MD, Grewal R, Beattie K. Risk factors predicting subsequent falls and osteoporotic fractures at 4 years after distal radius fracture-a prospective cohort study. Arch Osteoporos. 2018;13(1):32. This study shows that in individuals with distal radius fracture prior falls are an independent risk factor for subsequent falls and fracture.

  27. •• Crandall CJ, Hovey KM, Cauley JA, Andrews CA, Curtis JR, Wactawski-Wende J, et al. Wrist fracture and risk of subsequent fracture: findings from the women's health initiative study. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2015;30(11):2086–95. This paper presents data from a post-hoc analysis of the Women's Health Initiative Obervational Study and Clinical Trials to determine the frequency and types of fractures that occur after a wrist fracture among postmenopausal women and found that wrist fracture is associated with increased risk of subsequent hip, vertebral, upper extremity, and lower extremity fractures.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Clinton J, Franta A, Polissar NL, Neradilek B, Mounce D, Fink HA, et al. Proximal humeral fracture as a risk factor for subsequent hip fractures. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 2009;91(3):503–11.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Barrett-Connor E, Sajjan SG, Siris ES, Miller PD, Chen YT, Markson LE. Wrist fracture as a predictor of future fractures in younger versus older postmenopausal women: results from the National Osteoporosis Risk Assessment (NORA). Osteoporos Int. 2008;19(5):607–13.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. Warriner AH, Patkar NM, Curtis JR, Delzell E, Gary L, Kilgore M, et al. Which fractures are most attributable to osteoporosis? J Clin Epidemiol. 2011;64(1):46–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Nymark T, Lauritsen JM, Ovesen O, Rock ND, Jeune B. Short time-frame from first to second hip fracture in the Funen County hip fracture study. Osteoporos Int. 2006;17(9):1353–7.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  32. van Geel TA, van Helden S, Geusens PP, Winkens B, Dinant GJ. Clinical subsequent fractures cluster in time after first fractures. Ann Rheum Dis. 2009;68(1):99–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Johnell O, Oden A, Caulin F, Kanis JA. Acute and long-term increase in fracture risk after hospitalization for vertebral fracture. Osteoporos Int. 2001;12(3):207–14.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  34. Chen CW, Huang TL, Su LT, Kuo YC, Wu SC, Li CY, et al. Incidence of subsequent hip fractures is significantly increased within the first month after distal radius fracture in patients older than 60 years. The journal of trauma and acute care surgery. 2013;74(1):317–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. • Mazzucchelli R, Perez-Fernandez E, Crespi N, Garcia-Vadillo A, Rodriguez Caravaca G, Gil de Miguel A, et al. Second hip fracture: incidence, trends, and predictors. Calcif Tissue Int. 2018;102(6):619–26. This paper examines the predictors of second hip fracture in a Spanish cohort.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. • Weycker D, Edelsberg J, Barron R, Atwood M, Oster G, Crittenden DB, et al. Predictors of near-term fracture in osteoporotic women aged ≥65 years, based on data from the study of osteoporotic fractures. Osteoporos Int. 2017;28(9):2565–71. This paper uses data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) to look at clinical characteristics predictive of hip and non-vertebral fracture within a 1-year follow-up period among elderly women.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  37. • Keshishian A, Boytsov N, Burge R, Krohn K, Lombard L, Zhang X, et al. Examining the effect of medication adherence on risk of subsequent fracture among women with a fragility fracture in the U.S. medicare population. J Manag Care Spec Pharm. 2017;23(11):1178–90. The paper presents data from a retrospective, observational cohort using the national Medicare database looking at the association of osteoporosis medication adherence to risk of subsequent fracture in women with previous fragility fracture and found that Medicare-enrolled women with low & moderate adherence ot osteoporosis medications had a higher risk of a subsequent fracture compared with high adherence patients.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  38. • Lems WF, Dreinhofer KE, Bischoff-Ferrari H, Blauth M, Czerwinski E, da Silva J, et al. EULAR/EFORT recommendations for management of patients older than 50 years with a fragility fracture and prevention of subsequent fractures. Ann Rheum Dis. 2017;76(5):802–10. This paper identifies collaborative recommendations between the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) and the European Federation of National Associations of Orthopaedics and Traumatology (EFFORT) for patients with recent fragility fractures and prevention strategies of subsequent fracture in high-risk patients.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. • Saito T, Sterbenz JM, Malay S, Zhong L, MP ME, Chung KC. Effectiveness of anti-osteoporotic drugs to prevent secondary fragility fractures: systematic review and meta-analysis. Osteoporos Int. 2017;28(12):3289–300. This systematic review and mata-analysis examines the effectiveness of anti-osteoporotic drugs in preventing secondary fractures.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  40. • Bawa HS, Weick J, Dirschl DR. Anti-osteoporotic therapy after fragility fracture lowers rate of subsequent fracture: analysis of a large population sample. The Journal of bone and joint surgery American volume. 2015;97(19):1555–62. This paper examines the effectiveness of osteoporotic therapy after initial fragility fracture in preventing subsequent fractures.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. • Palacios S, Kalouche-Khalil L, Rizzoli R, Zapalowski C, Resch H, Adachi JD, et al. Treatment with denosumab reduces secondary fracture risk in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis. Climacteric. 2015;18(6):805–12. This paper is a post-hoc analysis of the FREEDOM trial that demonstrates denosumab reduces the risk of secondary fractures in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  42. • Miller PD, Hattersley G, Riis BJ, Williams GC, Lau E, Russo LA, et al. Effect of abaloparatide vs placebo on new vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: a randomized clinical trial. Jama. 2016;316(7):722–33. This paper presents results from the Abaloparatide Comparator Trial in Vertebral Endpoints (ACTIVE), a phase 3, double-blind, randomized controlled trial that showed the use of subcutaneous abaloparatide, compared with placebo, reduced the risk of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures over 18 months.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  43. Black DM, Thompson DE, Bauer DC, Ensrud K, Musliner T, Hochberg MC, et al. Fracture risk reduction with alendronate in women with osteoporosis: the fracture intervention trial. FIT research group. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2000;85(11):4118–24.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  44. Hochberg MC, Thompson DE, Black DM, Quandt SA, Cauley J, Geusens P, et al. Effect of alendronate on the age-specific incidence of symptomatic osteoporotic fractures. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2005;20(6):971–6.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  45. Harris ST, Watts NB, Genant HK, McKeever CD, Hangartner T, Keller M, et al. Effects of risedronate treatment on vertebral and nonvertebral fractures in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis: a randomized controlled trial. Vertebral efficacy with risedronate therapy (VERT) study group. JAMA. 1999;282(14):1344–52.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  46. Reginster J, Minne HW, Sorensen OH, Hooper M, Roux C, Brandi ML, et al. Randomized trial of the effects of risedronate on vertebral fractures in women with established postmenopausal osteoporosis. Vertebral efficacy with risedronate therapy (VERT) study group. Osteoporos Int. 2000;11(1):83–91.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  47. Chesnut CH 3rd, Skag A, Christiansen C, Recker R, Stakkestad JA, Hoiseth A, et al. Effects of oral ibandronate administered daily or intermittently on fracture risk in postmenopausal osteoporosis. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2004;19(8):1241–9.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  48. Black DM, Delmas PD, Eastell R, Reid IR, Boonen S, Cauley JA, et al. Once-yearly zoledronic acid for treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. N Engl J Med. 2007;356(18):1809–22.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  49. Lyles KW, Colon-Emeric CS, Magaziner JS, Adachi JD, Pieper CF, Mautalen C, et al. Zoledronic acid and clinical fractures and mortality after hip fracture. N Engl J Med. 2007;357(18):1799–809.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  50. Ettinger B, Black DM, Mitlak BH, Knickerbocker RK, Nickelsen T, Genant HK, et al. Reduction of vertebral fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis treated with raloxifene: results from a 3-year randomized clinical trial. Multiple outcomes of raloxifene evaluation (MORE) investigators. JAMA. 1999;282(7):637–45.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  51. Cummings SR, San Martin J, McClung MR, Siris ES, Eastell R, Reid IR, et al. Denosumab for prevention of fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. N Engl J Med. 2009;361(8):756–65.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  52. Boonen S, Adachi JD, Man Z, Cummings SR, Lippuner K, Torring O, et al. Treatment with denosumab reduces the incidence of new vertebral and hip fractures in postmenopausal women at high risk. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2011;96(6):1727–36.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  53. Neer RM, Arnaud CD, Zanchetta JR, Prince R, Gaich GA, Reginster JY, et al. Effect of parathyroid hormone (1-34) on fractures and bone mineral density in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. N Engl J Med. 2001;344(19):1434–41.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  54. • Bergman J, Nordstrom A, Nordstrom P. Bisphosphonate use after clinical fracture and risk of new fracture. Osteoporos Int. 2018;29(4):937–45. This paper shows a decrease in the relative risk of new fractures during bisphosphonate treatment in a Swedish population.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  55. • Cosman F, Hattersley G, Hu MY, Williams GC, Fitzpatrick LA, Black DM. Effects of abaloparatide-SC on fractures and bone mineral density in subgroups of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and varying baseline risk factors. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2017;32(1):17–23. This paper demonstrates that Abaloparatide-SC reduces risk of fracture in postmenopausal women of various ages and baseline risks including those with and without prior fractures.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  56. Solomon DH, Johnston SS, Boytsov NN, McMorrow D, Lane JM, Krohn KD. Osteoporosis medication use after hip fracture in U.S. patients between 2002 and 2011. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2014;29(9):1929–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Eriksen EF, Lyles KW, Colon-Emeric CS, Pieper CF, Magaziner JS, Adachi JD, et al. Antifracture efficacy and reduction of mortality in relation to timing of the first dose of zoledronic acid after hip fracture. Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. 2009;24(7):1308–13.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  58. Aizer J, Bolster MB. Fracture liaison services: promoting enhanced bone health care. Curr Rheumatol Rep. 2014;16(11):455.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. • Bhat SB, Ilyas AM. Economic analysis of bisphosphonate use after distal radius fracture for prevention of hip fracture. The archives of bone and joint surgery. 2017;5(6):380–3. This paper provides an economic analysis of the use of bisphosphonates after distal radius fracture in the prevention of subsequent hip fracture.

    PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  60. Quality Payment Program: PY 2017 Quality measures: Department of Health and Human Services; [Available from: https://gpp.cms.gov/mips/quality-measures.

  61. Surgeons AAoOSAAoO. 2017 Orthopaedic preferred specialty measure set 2017 [Available from: https://www.aaos.org/uploadedFiles/PreProduction/Quality/Measures/2017%20OPS%20MIPS-Quality.pdf.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kenneth G. Saag.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

Jeffrey Curtis reports grants and personal fees from Amgen and Radius, outside the submitted work. Kenneth Saag reports grants and personal fees and grants from Amgen and Merck and personal fees from Lilly and Radius, outside the submitted work. Amanda Schnell declares no conflict of interest.

Human and Animal Rights and Informed Consent

This article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects performed by any of the authors.

Additional information

This article is part of the Topical Collection on Epidemiology and Pathophysiology

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Schnell, A.D., Curtis, J.R. & Saag, K.G. Importance of Recent Fracture as Predictor of Imminent Fracture Risk. Curr Osteoporos Rep 16, 738–745 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11914-018-0487-z

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11914-018-0487-z

Keywords

Navigation