Abstract
This study aims to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on typhoons and wave overtopping during typhoon progresses in Qingdao, China. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate wave elements. The scale coefficients of wave overtopping are estimated using an empirical prediction formula. A total of 75 tropical cyclones affected Qingdao from 1949 to 2019. These tropical cyclones can be grouped into eight categories according to typhoon tracks. Typhoon wind speed during Track G is projected to decrease, and those of the other seven typhoon progresses will increase by 0.35%–0.75% in 2025, 0.69%–1.5% in 2035, and 1.38%–3.0% in 2055. The significant wave height and wave overtopping outside the bay are greater than those inside the bay. Among the 506 typical points selected, the maximum values of the significant wave height and wave overtopping inside the bay are mainly distributed in the range of 0–2m and 0–60 m3 km−1 s−1, respectively. The increments of the significant wave height and wave overtopping of Track F are most obvious. The significant wave height of Track F will increase by 50.5% in 2025, 51.8% in 2035, and 53.4% in 2055. In the 2°C scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055. In the 4°C scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bacmeister, J. T., Reed, K. A., Hannay, C., Lawrence, P., Bates, S., Truesdale, J. E., Rosenbloom, N., and Levy, M., 2018. Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model. Climatic Change, 146: 547.
Booij, N., Ris, R. C., and Holthuijsen, L. H., 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 1. Model description and validation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012), 104 (C4): 7649–7666.
Dahmani, A. E. A., Bachari, F., Mezouar, K., and Boudouma, Z., 2017. Physical and numerical modeling complementarity for an overtopping study of the Algerian Center Zone ‘The Site of the Sablettes’. Euro-Mediterranean Conference for Environmental Integration. Sousse, Tunisia, 1607–1609.
Dong, S., Huang, W., Li, X., and Tao, S., 2017. Study on temporal and spatial characteristics of cold waves in Shandong Province of China. Natural Hazards, 88 (3): 191–219.
Elsner, J. B., 2006. Evidence in support of the climate change — Atlantic hurricane hypothesis. Geophysical Research Letters, 33: 16705.
Elsner, J. B., and Jagger, T. H., 2004. A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling. Journal of Climate, 17: 2813–2827.
Feng, L., and Lin, X., 2009. Long-term trend of the East China Sea surface temperature during 1945–2006. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 39 (1): 13–18 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Gray, W. M., Landsea, C. W., Mielke Jr., P. W., and Berry, K. J., 1993. Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August. Weather and Forecasting, 8: 73–86.
Hoyos, C. D., Agudelo, P. A., Webster, P. J. and Curry, J. A., 2006. Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science, 312: 94–97.
Hughes, S. A., and Nadal, N. C., 2009. Laboratory study of combined wave overtopping and storm surge overflow of a levee. Coastal Engineering, 56 (3): 244–259.
Jelesnianski, C. P.,1965. A numerical calculation of storm tides induced by a tropical storm impinging on a continental shelf. Monthly Weather Review, 93 (6): 83–88.
Ji, Q., and Dong, S., 2018. Modelling wave transmission and overtopping based on energy balance equation. Journal of Ocean University of China, 17 (5): 1033–1043.
Lehmiller, G. S., Kimberlain, T. B., and Elsner, J. B., 1997. Seasonal prediction models for North Atlantic basin hurricane location. Monthly Weather Review, 125: 1780–1791.
Lei, X., 2011. The main assessment conclusions and issues of the impacts of global climate change on tropical cyclone activities. Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China, 2: 85–89 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Lin, Y. F., Dong, S., Wang, Z. F., and Soares, C. G., 2019. Wave energy assessment in the China adjacent seas on the basis of a 20-year SWAN simulation with unstructured grids. Renewable Energy, 136: 275–295.
Mann, M. E., and Emanuel, K. A., 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union, 87: 233–244.
Nergaard, J. Q. H., Andersen, T. L., and Burcharth, H. F., 2014. Distribution of individual wave overtopping volumes in shallow water wave conditions. Coastal Engineering, 83: 15–23.
Pan, W., Qian, G., Yu, K., and Chen, T., 2007. Study on variation characteristics of SST observed in the past 40 years in the coastal region of South China. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 13 (2): 177–180.
Pan, Y., Kuang, C. P., Li, L., and Amini, F., 2015. Full-scale laboratory study on distribution of individual wave overtopping volumes over a levee under negative freeboard. Coastal Engineering, 97: 11–20.
Pillai, K., Etemad-Shahidi, A., and Lemckert, C., 2017. Wave overtopping at berm breakwaters: Review and sensitivity analysis of prediction models. Coastal Engineering, 120: 1–21.
Ris, R. C., Holthuijsen, L. H., and Booij, N., 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 2. Verification. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012), 104 (C4): 7667–7681.
Shen, Y., Sun, Y., Zhong, Z., Liu, K. F., and Shi, J., 2018. Sensitivity experiments on the poleward shift of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific under warming ocean conditions. Journal of Meteorological Research, 32: 560.
Sierra, J. P., Casanovas, I., Mösso, C., Mestres, M., and Sánchez-Arcilla, A., 2016. Vulnerability of Catalan (NW Mediterranean) ports to wave overtopping due to different scenarios of sea level rise. Regional Environmental Change, 16: 1457–1468.
Su, Q., Zheng, C., Yang, Y., and Chen, X., 2014. Long-term trend analysis of ST for past hundred years in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Marine Forecasts, 31 (2): 50–55 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Sun, C., Zheng, C., and Chen, X., 2015. Seasonal characteristics and long-term trend analysis of SST in the global ocean. Marine Environmental Science, 34 (5): 713–717 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Victor, L., Van Der Meer, J. W., and Troch, P., 2012. Probability distribution of individual wave overtopping volumes for smooth impermeable steep slopes with low crest freeboards. Coastal Engineering, 64: 87–101.
Wang, Z. F., Dong, S., Li, X., and Soares, C. G., 2016. Assessments of wave energy in the Bohai Sea, China. Renewable Energy, 90: 145–156.
Williams, H. E., Briganti, R., and Pullen, T., 2014. The role of offshore boundary conditions in the uncertainty of numerical prediction of wave overtopping using non-linear shallow water equations. Coastal Engineering, 89: 30–44.
Xiao, H., Huang, W., and Tao, J., 2009. Numerical modeling of wave overtopping a levee during Hurricane Katrina. Computers and Fluids, 38 (5): 991–996.
Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC1401 103), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51779236), the International Cooperation Projects (No. INTASAVE ACCC-045), and the Open Fund of Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, Z., Li, S., Hao, Y. et al. Estimation and Prediction of Typhoons and Wave Overtopping in Qingdao, China. J. Ocean Univ. China 19, 1017–1028 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-020-4378-4
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-020-4378-4