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The forecast of fire impact on Pinus sylvestris renewal in southwestern Siberia

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Abstract

Simulation of fire impact on forest floor renewal in pine forests was based on predictions for 2100 by the Canadian Climate Centre for increase in temperatures of by 4.5 °C and total precipitation by 14% in the West Siberian pre-forest-steppes and empirical regression relationships between them and the degree of burnt forest floor, as well as amount of Pinus sylvestris L. regeneration. It was predicted that by 2100, pine regeneration on fire prone sites under the canopy of the dominant forest type will increase by 29–54% compared to the 1980s but on adjacent open sites, regeneration will decrease twice as much. This means that the regeneration potential and pine population stability in pre-forest-steppes will become as poor as it is today.

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Notes

  1. Heavy rains and daily precipitation for 1936–1959. Meteorological data for several years. Vol. 9 in the Perm, Sverdlovsk, Kurgan, Chelyabinsk regions and the Bashkir ASSR (1967) Hydrometeorological Publish, Leningrad.

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Acknowledgements

The researchers thank the three reviewers and the editor of the Journal for their work on the manuscript.

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  1. Botanical Garden of the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Science, 202a, 8 Marta St., Yekaterinburg, 620144, Russia

    Stanislav N. Sannikov, Nelly S. Sannikova, Irina V. Petrova & Olga E. Cherepanova

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  1. Stanislav N. Sannikov
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  2. Nelly S. Sannikova
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  3. Irina V. Petrova
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  4. Olga E. Cherepanova
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Correspondence to Olga E. Cherepanova.

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Corresponding editor: Yu Lei.

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Sannikov, S.N., Sannikova, N.S., Petrova, I.V. et al. The forecast of fire impact on Pinus sylvestris renewal in southwestern Siberia. J. For. Res. 32, 1911–1919 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-020-01260-1

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