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Research needs and challenges faced in supporting scenario design in sustainability science: a literature review

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Abstract

A number of scenarios have been created to explore possible images of and transitions to a sustainable society, as famously represented by the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These can be valuable as underlying information for policy makers making plans for a low-carbon society. Although many researchers have developed individual methods that can be used for designing scenarios, research agendas or challenges for supporting scenario design activities have not been sufficiently discussed. Based on an intensive literature review of existing studies, this paper aims to clarify requisites and challenges for supporting scenario design, particularly in the context of sustainability science. Given that the value of designing scenarios is to help generate and communicate various ideas about the future as argued by sustainability science literature, scenarios are often created with stakeholder participation, through iterative cycles that are composed of three steps: (a) idea generation, (b) idea integration and scenario description, and (c) scenario evaluation. The results of our literature review also show that, though a wide array of methods and tools are available to support some of the steps, there are research issues to be further addressed in supporting scenario design. They include (1) accumulating existing scenarios and simulators as a promising approach to structuring knowledge about sustainability science and (2) ensuring the transparency of the logic underlying scenarios to facilitate communication between participants. Addressing these points will enhance support for sustainability scenario design.

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  1. Center for Environmental Innovation Design for Sustainability (CEIDS), Osaka University, 2-1 Yamada-oka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan

    Yusuke Kishita, Keishiro Hara & Michinori Uwasu

  2. Department of Precision Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan

    Yasushi Umeda

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  1. Yusuke Kishita
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Kishita, Y., Hara, K., Uwasu, M. et al. Research needs and challenges faced in supporting scenario design in sustainability science: a literature review. Sustain Sci 11, 331–347 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-015-0340-6

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