Zusammenfassung
Im vorliegenden Kommentar wird nach einer Antwort auf die Frage gesucht, warum die von Silvio Berlusconi geführte Mitte-Rechts-Koalition die von Walter Veltroni angeführte Mitte-Links-Koalition bei den italienischen Parlamentswahlen vom April 2008 mit 3,3 Millionen Stimmen Vorsprung besiegte. Dabei nimmt die Analyse drei Faktoren in Augenschein, die Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung hatten: den institutionellen Kontext, die Wahlkampagnen sowie das Verhalten der Wähler. Der Beitrag kommt zu dem Schluss, dass weniger Wertewandel unter den Wählern als vielmehr eine große Zahl von Enthaltungen auf der Seite der Mitte-Links-Wähler sowie ein hoher Anteil an Wechselwählern den Sieg der Mitte-Rechts-Koalition begünstigt haben.
Abstract
At the Italian parliamentary election of April 2008 the centre-right coalition, led by media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, prevailed with 3.3 million votes over the centre-left coalition, led by Walter Veltroni, former mayor of Rome. This commentary analyzes the electoral results by looking at three factors which affected the vote: the institutional context, the electoral campaigns of both coalitions, and the voters’ behaviour. The article claims that the electoral outcome originated from an asymmetrical abstention of centre-left voters who did not turn out, and from a high-level of swing-voting which favoured the centre-right. It is argued that this election hardly signals a political realignment. Rather than value changes, valence politics and government performance are at the basis of the centre-right victory.
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Bellucci, P. Why Berlusconi’s landslide return? A comment on the 2008 Italian general election. PVS 49, 605–617 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-008-0115-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-008-0115-0