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PrEP Intervention in the Mitigation of HIV/AIDS Epidemics in China via a Data-Validated Age-Structured Model

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Abstract

Antiretroviral-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) treatment offers a new opportunity for protecting humans against HIV and disrupting current HIV prevention systems. However, implementing this preventive measure has been difficult due to its high cost. In this paper, we propose an age-structured model that incorporates infection ages, HAART (highly active antiretroviral therapy), and PrEP intervention. We investigate the qualitative behavior of the model and find a threshold parameter (the basic reproduction number) that determines the asymptotic stability of equilibria. We validate the model and estimate the parameters by confronting the actual HIV/AIDS data from 2004 to 2018 in China using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method. Furthermore, we investigate the PrEP intervention strategy by using incremental cost-effectiveness and average cost-effectiveness. Our work suggests that PrEP intervention based on the infection characteristics of different age groups can be an effective strategy to eradicate HIV/AIDS epidemics in China.

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Data availability statement

All used data are available on public databases.

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Acknowledgements

Research of PW is supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 12201557), the Foundation of Zhejiang Provincial Education Department (No. Y202249921). Research of HW is partially supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant RGPIN-2020-03911 and NSERC Accelerator Grant RGPAS-2020-00090.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Sciences, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, 310018, People’s Republic of China

    Peng Wu

  2. Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada

    Shohel Ahmed & Hao Wang

  3. Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN, 37403, USA

    Xiunan Wang

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  1. Peng Wu
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  2. Shohel Ahmed
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  3. Xiunan Wang
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  4. Hao Wang
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Correspondence to Hao Wang.

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Appendices

Appendix A: The Collection of Real Data

To parameterize the continuous age-structured model for HIV/AIDS transmission in China, we first fit the reported cases from 2004–2018 (Data-Center of China Public Health Science 2021) by the demographic model (25). The numbers of reported HIV/AIDS cases for different age groups from 2004 to 2018 are displayed in Tables 8, 9 and 10.

Table 8 HIV/AIDS reported cases from 2004 to 2008 in China. The data were collected from Data-Center of China Public Health Science (2021)
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Table 9 HIV/AIDS reported cases from 2009 to 2013 in China. The data were collected from Data-Center of China Public Health Science (2021)
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Table 10 HIV/AIDS reported cases from 2014 to 2018 in China. The data were collected from Data-Center of China Public Health Science (2021)
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Appendix B: Collection of Fitted Curves

The fitted curves of new and cumulative HIV/AIDS cases for different age groups are presented in Figs. 15, 16, 17 and 18.

Fig. 15
figure 15

Fitting curves of the new and cumulative HIV and AIDS reported cases from 2004 to 2018

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Fig. 16
figure 16

Fitting curves of the new and cumulative HIV and AIDS reported cases from 2004 to 2018

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Fig. 17
figure 17

Fitting curves of the new and cumulative HIV and AIDS reported cases from 2004 to 2018

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Fig. 18
figure 18

Fitting curves of the new and cumulative HIV and AIDS reported cases from 2004 to 2018

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Wu, P., Ahmed, S., Wang, X. et al. PrEP Intervention in the Mitigation of HIV/AIDS Epidemics in China via a Data-Validated Age-Structured Model. Bull Math Biol 85, 41 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-023-01145-4

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