Abstract
Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluate future dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents the basic structure and characteristics of the model, focusing on water infrastructure’s dynamic relationships with population increase, economic development, water resources shortage and water conservation practices. Secondly, model veracity and robustness tests based on behavior reproduction and uncertainty analyses are illustrated. Thirdly, based on the model, future patterns of China’s urban water infrastructure investment requirements are simulated, and effectiveness of two different policy scenarios are evaluated. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are drawn, allowing insights into China’s sustainable water infrastructure policies and managements.
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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 70073040
Junying Chu is a Ph.D Candidate of Environmental System Analysis Institute, Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. She obtained B.Sc in Environmental Engineering and B.Sc in Business Administration from Tsinghua University in 2000. Her research focuses on issues related to water policy analysis, environment system analysis and complex system simulation.
Jining Chen is Professor of Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. He received the Ph.D degree in Environmental Systems Analysis from Imperial College in 1992. He takes a keen interes in system analysis, modeling, computing, technology assessment, river basin management, hydrology, operation and control of wastewater treatment plants and policy analysis.
Ji Zou is Professor of Department of Environmental Economics and Management, Renmin University of China, Beijing. He received the Ph.D degree in Environmental Economics from Renmin University of China in 1997. His areas of research interest include economic analysis of environmental impact assessment, analysis on instruments of environmental policies, policy and institutional analysis on environmentally-friendly technology transfer, techniques for environmental valuation, and international financial flow and the environment.
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Chu, J., Chen, J. & Zou, J. Perspectives on urban water infrastructure in China for the 21st century: SDMUWEIC model. J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng. 12, 470–480 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-006-0148-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-006-0148-0