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A system dynamics simulation-based strategic analysis of integrated water resources utilization and management in Shenzhen city

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Abstract

As one of the most rapidly developing cities in China, Shenzhen grapples with an increasing challenge in managing water resources due to escalating conflicts with its soaring water demand. This study established a system dynamics (SD) model based on a causal loop diagram to explore the intricate interconnections within the urban water resources system. Through simulating water supply and demand in Shenzhen from 2021 to 2035, the model identified key sensitive factors and examined various utilization scenarios for multiple water resources. Results indicated that water scarcity posed a significant obstacle to Shenzhen’s development. To tackle this challenge, several effective measures should be implemented, including enhancing water conservation capabilities, developing seawater resources, promoting water reuse, optimizing the economic structure, and managing population growth. Prioritizing water conservation efforts and maximizing the utilization of seawater resources were regarded as the most impactful strategies in alleviating the water crisis. Furthermore, the relationship between water conservation capabilities and seawater utilization scale was analyzed using the SD model, contributing to the development of a comprehensive water resources management strategy. The findings from this study would provide insights into robust methods for allocating water resources, thereby enhancing sustainable water management strategies applicable to regions facing similar challenges.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments to help us improve this manuscript. Also, we would express our thanks to the following agencies for funding this work: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Qinghai Science and Technology Bureau, Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Committee and Shenzhen University.

Funding

This research was financially supported by the China National Key R&D Program (No. 2022YFC3201803), Major Basic Research Development Program of the Science and Technology, Qinghai Province (2021-SF-A6), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51809007), and Fundamental Research Funds for the Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Committee (No. 20220807162217001).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Research Center, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China

    Guangzhi Zheng, Bing Li & Xiaofeng Wu

  2. Water Science and Environmental Engineering Research Center, College of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China

    Jing-Cheng Han & Muhammad Ahmad

  3. Hunan Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Changsha, 410007, China

    Ping Li

  4. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Xiaofeng Wu & Yuefei Huang

  5. State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, 810016, China

    Yuefei Huang

Authors
  1. Guangzhi Zheng
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  2. Jing-Cheng Han
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  3. Ping Li
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  4. Bing Li
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  5. Xiaofeng Wu
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  6. Yuefei Huang
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  7. Muhammad Ahmad
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Contributions

Guangzhi Zheng: data curation, writing—original draft preparation, software and simulation. Jing-Cheng Han: idea and conceptualization, methodology, writing—reviewing and editing. Ping Li: data curation, visualization. Bing Li: conceptualization, writing—reviewing and editing. Xiaofeng Wu: project administration, supervision. Muhammad Ahmad: writing—reviewing and editing. Yuefei Huang: project administration, writing—reviewing and editing.

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Correspondence to Jing-Cheng Han.

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Responsible Editor: Xianliang Yi

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Appendix

Appendix

Table 6

Table 6 Main variables and equations in the SD model
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Zheng, G., Han, JC., Li, P. et al. A system dynamics simulation-based strategic analysis of integrated water resources utilization and management in Shenzhen city. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 23091–23105 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-32599-1

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