Chinese Science Bulletin

, 56:2986 | Cite as

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau

  • Yu Liu
  • QiuFang Cai
  • HuiMing Song
  • ZhiSheng An
  • Hans W. Linderholm
Open Access
Article Special Topic: Climate Change over the Past Millennium in China

Abstract

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities, causes and future trends of temperature variations based on tree rings for the past 2485 years on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. The results showed that extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature change occurred during the Eastern Jin Event (343–425 AD), and not in the late 20th century. There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2–3 a in the 2485-year temperature series. The 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a and 110 a cycles are associated with solar activity, which greatly affects the Earth surface temperature. The long-term trends (>1000 a) of temperature were controlled by the millennium-scale cycle, and amplitudes were dominated by multi-century cycles. Moreover, cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums. The prediction indicated that the temperature will decrease in the future until to 2068 AD and then increase again.

Keywords

central-eastern Tibetan Plateau temperature amplitude rate periodicity cause future trend 

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Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2011

Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yu Liu
    • 1
    • 2
  • QiuFang Cai
    • 1
  • HuiMing Song
    • 1
    • 3
  • ZhiSheng An
    • 1
  • Hans W. Linderholm
    • 4
  1. 1.The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’anChina
  2. 2.Department of Environmental Science and Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil EngineeringXi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’anChina
  3. 3.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  4. 4.Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburgSweden

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