Abstract
Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series. The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent Global Warming Period (GWP) were distinct in the temperature series. 21-year, 65-year, 115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures. The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radiation variability. The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation. At this century-cross period, the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously, which did not occur during the last millennium. Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations, global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Scafetta N, West B J. Is climate sensitive to solar variability? Phys Today, 2008, 3:50–51
Benestad R E, Schmidt G A. Solar trends and global warming. J Geophys Res, 2009, 114: D14101, doi:10. 1029/2008JD011639
Meehl G A, Stocker T F, Collins W D, et al. Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 747–845
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, et al. Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS model E. Clim Dyn, 2007, 29:661–696
Qian W H, Lu B, Zhu C W. How would global-mean temperature change in the 21st century? Chinese Sci Bull, 2010, 55:1963–1967
Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Harris I, et al. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res, 2006, 111: D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
Mann M E, Zhang Z H, Hughes M K, et al. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2008, 105: 13252–13257
Mann M E, Jones P D. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophys Res Lett, 2003, 30:1820
Lau K M, Weng H. Climate signal detection using wavelet transform: How to make a time series sing. Bull Am Meteor Soc, 1995, 76:2391–2402
Easterling D R, Wehner M F. Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36: L08706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810
Lean J, Beer J, Bradley R. Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change. Geophys Res Lett, 1995, 22:3195–3198
Bard E, Frank M. Climate change and solar variability: What’s new under the sun? Earth Planet Sci Lett, 2006, 248:1–14
Qian W H, Tang S Q. Identifying global monsoon troughs and global atmospheric centers of action on a pentad scale. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett, 2010, 3:1–6
Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Matthes K, et al. Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing. Science, 2009, 325:1114–1118
Schlesinger M E, Ramankutty N. An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature, 1994, 367:723–726
Shen C M, Wang W C, Gong W, et al. A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China. Geophys Res Lett, 2006, 33: L03702, doi:10.1029/2005GL024804
Gao X Q, Zhang X, Qian W H. Climate change: Long-term trends and short-term oscillations. J Tropical Meteorol, 2006, 12:139–149
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
About this article
Cite this article
Qian, W., Lu, B. Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes. Chin. Sci. Bull. 55, 4052–4057 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4204-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4204-2