Abstract
This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective. According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics, a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system. Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method, a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established. The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system. The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution. Meanwhile, a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm. The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China mainland. The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Yang J Y, Chen W. Research on the evaluation model of the modernization level of urban construction in Jiangsu Province, China. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(9): 2517–2521
Wang Z H, Xu Q D, Xu B, et al. Emergency aero-photo survey after the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake, China. Sci China Ser E-Tech Sci, 2009, 52(4): 835–842
Wang J G. A research into the large-scaled spatial forms of cities based on urban design. Sci China Ser E-Tech Sci, 2009, 52(9): 2486–2496
Wang J G, Zhang Y, Feng H. A decision-making model of development intensity based on similarity relationship between land attributes intervened by urban design. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(7): 1743–1754
Lu X, Lu X Z, Zhang W K, et al. Collapse simulation of a super high-rise building subjected to extremely strong earthquakes. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(10): 2549–2560
Wang D, Li J. Physical random function model of ground motions for engineering purposes. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(1): 175–182
Ye X G, Wang D C. Selection of real earthquake accelerograms for structural dynamic analysis and energy evaluation. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(11): 2878–2885
Zhang A M H, Gao Z Y, Ren H L. Incident-based traffic congestion control strategy. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(5): 1338–1344
Dong J H, Zhu Y P, Zhou Y, et al. Dynamic calculation model and seismic response for frame supporting structure with prestressed anchors. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(6): 1957–1966
Yi T H, Li H N, Gu M. Full-scale measurements of dynamic response of suspension bridge subjected to environmental loads using GPS technology. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(2): 469–479
Yang Q S, Wang X F. A geometrical and physical nonlinear finite element model for spatial thin-walled beams with arbitrary section. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(3): 829–838
Yuan X K, Lu Z Z, Qiao H W. Conditional probability Markov chain simulation based reliability analysis method for nonnormal variables. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(5): 1434–1441
Ding Y L, Deng Y, Li A Q. Study on correlations of modal frequencies and environmental factors for a suspension bridge based on improved neural networks. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(9): 2501–2509
Xu Z D, Zeng X, Huang X H, et al. Experimental and numerical studies on new multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device: Horizontal properties. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(10): 2658–2667
Sun B T, Zhang G X. The Wenchuan earthquake creation of a rich database of building performance. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(10): 2668–2680
Lu Y F, Wu X X, Shao J F. Anisotropic damage coupled modeling of saturated porous rock. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(10): 2681–2690
Shang Y Z, Liu R H, Li T J, et al. Transient flow control for an artificial open channel based on finite difference method. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(4): 781–792
Cai G Q, Zhao C G, Lu Y, et al. A nonlinear multi-field coupled model for soils. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(5): 1300–1314
Qi K. Time · Space · Architecture. S Sci China Ser E-Tech Sci, 2009, 52(9): 2481–248
Yan J, Zuo Z. Research on natural disaster risk assessment index system and method (in Chinese). China Safety Sci J, 2010, 20(11): 61–65
Huang C F, Ruan D. Fuzzy risks and updating algorithm with new observations. Risk Analysis, 2008, 28(3): 681–693
Huang C F. Risk Assessment of Natural Disaster Theory & Practice (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press, 2005
Li H, Zhou B. The assessment of catastrophe disasters risk level in China mainland based on FME (in Chinese). J Shenzhen Univ Sci Eng, 2012, 29(1): 18–24
Wang W S, Jin J L, Li Y Q. Risk degree assessment of natural disaster based on set pair analysis method (in Chinese). J Sichuan Univ (Eng Sci Ed), 2009, 41(6): 6–12
Zhang M Y, Yuan Y B, Zhou J. A new method of urban natural disaster risk analysis (in Chinese). J Dalian Univ Tech, 2010, 50(5): 706–711
Wang W, Tian J, Wang Z T, et al. Evaluation method of urban comprehensive disaster-carrying capability based on fractal theory. Appl Mech Mater, 2011, 90–93: 3155–3160
Wang W, Tian J, Ma D H, et al. Comprehensive evaluation for cities ability of reducing earthquake disasters based on cloud model (in Chinese). J Beijing Univ Tech, 2010, 36(6): 764–770
Wang W, Tian J, Wang Z T, et al. Fractal model for evaluating urban comprehensive disaster-carrying capability (in Chinese). China Safety Sci J, 2011, 21(5): 172–176
Wang W, Tian J, Su J Y, et al. Analysis of disaster vulnerability of small cities and towns based on Bayesian stochastic assessment method (in Chinese). J Disaster Prevention Mitigation Eng, 2010, 30(5): 524–527
Wang W, Su J Y, Ma D H, et al. Assessment of urban comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation capability using practical probability method (in Chinese). China Civil Eng J, 2012, 45(Supp. 2): 121–124
Wang W, Su J Y, Ma D H, et al. Evaluation method of urban comprehensive disaster-carrying capability based on PSO-PPE (in Chinese). J Beijing Univ Tech, 2012, 38(8): 1174–1179
Wang D, Li J. Physical random function model of ground motions for engineering purposes. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(1): 175–182
Ye J H, Zhang Z Q, Chu Y. Strength behavior and collapse of spatial-reticulated structures under multi-support excitation. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(6): 1624–1638
Rong H, Qian C X, Wang R X. A cementation method of loose particles based on microbe-based cement. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(7): 1722–1729
Li H J, Wang J R, HU Sau-Lon James. Model updating based on incomplete modal data. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(7): 1737–1747
Bai J L, Ou J P. Seismic failure mode improvement of RC frame structure based on multiple lateral load patterns of pushover analyses. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(11): 2825–2833
Ye J H, Liu W Z, Pan R. Research on failure scenarios of domes based on form vulnerability. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(11): 2834–2853
YI T H, Li H N, Gu M. Recent research and applications of GPS based technology for bridge health monitoring. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(10): 2597–2610
Zhong D H, Ren B Y, Li M C, et al. Theory on real-time control of construction quality and progress and its application to high arc dam. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(10): 2611–2618
Yao Y P, Yang Y F, Niu L. UH model considering temperature effects. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(1): 190–202
Zhang Y J, Zhang W Q, Yang C S. FEM analyses for influences of stress corrosion and pressure solution on THM coupling in dual-porosity rock mass. Sci China Tech Sci, 2011, 54(7): 1748–1756
Zhang W H, Wang J, Sun L Z, et al. Disaster System and Theoretical Basis of Dynamics of Disaster (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press, 2011
Leung Y, Huang C F. A new algorithm for estimating the risk of natural disaster with incomplete data. Int J General Syst, 2000, 29(2): 175–204
Wu J, Guo Z Y. An exploration for the macroscopic physical meaning of entropy. Sci China Tech Sci, 2010, 53(7): 1809–1816
Chai L H, Shoji M. Self-organization and self-similarity in boiling systems. ASME J Heat Transfer, 2002, 124(3): 507–515
Chen L M, Chai L H. A theoretical analysis on self-organized formation of microbial biofilms. Physica A: Statistical Physics and Its Applications, 2006, 370(2): 793–807
KORHONEN J, SNAKIN J P. Analysing the evolution of industrial ecosystems: Concepts and application. Ecological Economics, 2005, 52(2): 169–186
Chai L H, Wen D S. Hierarchical self-organization of complex systems. Chem Res Chinese Univ, 2004, 20(4): 440–445
Chai L H. Statistical dynamic features of sludge drying systems. Int J Thermal Sci, 2007, 46(8): 802–811
Huo C H, Chai L H. Physical principles and simulations on the structural evolution of Eco-Industrial systems. J Cleaner Production, 2008, 16(18): 1995–2005
Feng Q Y, Chai L H. A new statistical dynamic analysis on vegetation patterns in land ecosystems. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2008, 387(14): 3583–3593
ALBERT R, BARABASI A L. Statistical mechanics of complex networks. Rev Modern Phys, 2002, 74(1): 47–97
Ge Z X, Sun Z Q. Principles of neural network and MATLABR 2007 realization (in Chinese). Beijing: Publishing House of Electronics Industry, 2007
Liu N L, Mao G Z, Zhao L. Quality evaluation and its application to surface water ecosystem based on maximum flux principle. Trans Tianjin Univ, 2010, 16: 336–341
Feng Q Y. Research approach of niche based on new framework of physics (in Chinese). Dissertation of Masteral Degree. Tianjin: Tianjin University, 2010
Lin F. Approach to nature: the evolution of eco-industrial system based on a weltanschauung of informationalism (in Chinese). Dissertation of Masteral Degree. Tianjin: Tianjin University, 2011
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, W., Su, J., Ma, D. et al. Integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system based on a non-linear information dynamics model. Sci. China Technol. Sci. 55, 3344–3351 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-012-5060-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-012-5060-x