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The relationship between interannual dry/wet changes and nomadic wars in the Hexi Corridor region of China during the period 241–1912 A.D.

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Abstract

The link between climate and war has long been a topic of great scientific and social interest. In this study, we investigate the influence of climate on warfare in China’s Hexi Corridor region since 241 A.D. Using the superposed epoch analysis of tree-ring data and historical war data, we observe a notable correlation between interannual dry-wet variations and wars instigated by nomadic groups in the Hexi Corridor. However, this relationship is dynamic and influenced by the region’s relative unity. During periods in which the Hexi Corridor was ruled by multiple regimes, wars tended to follow dry climatic conditions, which may be due to the fact that unusual drought during these periods likely heightened competition for resources and land. Conversely, during times of regional unity, wars were more likely to occur when climatic conditions were wet because the expansion of rangelands and the accumulation of resources helped fuel the nomads’ outward conquest. These findings underscore the complexity of the relationship between war and climate change. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of this relationship, continuous, high-resolution historical temperature and humidity datasets with broader and more uniform coverage are needed across multiple regions. In addition, collecting and examining disaggregated historical war data for regions with distinct characteristics is essential.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments, the staff of the Gansu Qilian Mountain National Park for their valuable assistance, and Erin Gleeson for polishing this manuscript. This research was supported by the Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System (Grant No. 41988101), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41977392), the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2019YFA0606602), the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu, China (Grant No. 22JR5RA449), and the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities (Grant No. 22lzujbkydx036).

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  1. These authors contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Fei Tang & Yong Zhang

  2. Institute of Dunhuang Studies, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730020, China

    Zhilin Shi

  3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Qinhua Tian

  4. Longchanghe Station, Gansu Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve, Zhangye, 734400, China

    Xiaogang Du

  5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Fei Tang

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  1. Fei Tang
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Correspondence to Yong Zhang.

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Tang, F., Shi, Z., Tian, Q. et al. The relationship between interannual dry/wet changes and nomadic wars in the Hexi Corridor region of China during the period 241–1912 A.D.. Sci. China Earth Sci. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1296-9

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