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Do the “Dragon’s Gifts” Improve China’s National Image? An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Relations and Public Perceptions of China in Africa

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Abstract

Using a multivariate framework and the most recently available data that include numerous African countries, this investigation has produced the first extensive statistical evaluation of China’s image in Africa based on China’s various economic relations with Africa, including aid, trade, FDI and contracts. We find that China’s economic development assistance, contracts, and to some degree, trade with African countries contribute to a positive image of China in Africa. In addition, we find that people in African countries of a smaller population, poorer livelihood, less open economy, and better governance tend to have positive views of China’s political and economic influence. With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese economic activities in recipient countries have been increasing. The implications of this research shed light on how BRI may be received in the host countries and the likelihood of its success or failure.

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Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Source: China Statistical Yearbooks. Note: The Contract is the total value of fulfilled turnover of Chinese contract projects

Fig. 3

Source: Afrobarometer. Respondents were asked: which of the following factors contributes most to positive image of China in [Ghana], or haven’t you heard enough to say? (Answer category: 1.China's support for the country in international affairs; 2. Non-interference in the internal affairs of African countries; 3. China's investment in infrastructure in the country; 4. China's business investment; 5. The quality or cost of Chinese products; 6.An appreciation of the Chinese people, culture and language; 7. Some other factor; 8. None of these; 9. Don’t know / Haven’t heard enough)

Fig. 4

Source: Afrobarometer. Respondents were asked: Which of the following factors contributes most to negative images of China in [Ghana], or haven’t you heard enough to say? (Answer category: 1. China's extraction of resources from Africa; 2. Land grabbing by Chinese individuals or businesses; 3. China's willingness to cooperate with undemocratic rulers; 4. Taking jobs or business from the locals; 5. The quality of Chinese products; 6. The behavior of Chinese citizens in the country; 7. Some other factor; 8. None of these; 9. Don’t know / Haven’t heard enough)

Fig. 5

Source: UN Comtrade

Fig. 6

Source: UN Comtrade

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Notes

  1. In recent years, China increased activity in peacekeeping in Africa. By 2017, China had more than 2,400 Chinese troops in seven UN peacekeeping missions across the continent [15].

  2. See Benabdallah, 2019. China’s CCTV Africa branch was renamed as China Global Television Network (CGTV) in January 2017.

  3. The first Ministerial Conference of the FOCAC was held in Beijing, China in October 2000. The second Ministerial Conference of the FOCAC was held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in December 2003. The event locations alternate between Beijing and an African city. The last FOCAC forum took place in Beijing, September 3–4, 2018.

  4. Beijing Declaration of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The People’s Republic of China, http://www.focac.org.

  5. See Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the opening ceremony of 2018 FOCAC Beijing Summit https://focacsummit.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxyw_1/t1591508.htm.

  6. For more details, see http://www.focac.org.

  7. See International Economic Cooperation, p. 224.

  8. See Regulations on the Administration of Foreign Contracted Projects (revised in 2017) http://hzs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zcfb/a/201810/20181002799147.shtml

  9. See China Statistical Yearbook http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2019/indexeh.htm

  10. See http://history.mofcom.gov.cn/?specialfour=xzgddwzjtzfz

  11. See http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-10/03/c_138446624.htm

  12. The eight African countries are Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia. The survey was from November 2016 to March 2017.

  13. Zafar identifies three types of African countries with China’s trade based on their factor endowment: winners, mixed, and losers. Winners are oil exporters and resource-rich countries, including oil exporters, such as Sudan, Angola, and Gabon, as well as mineral exporters, such as Mauritania (iron ore), Zambia (copper), and South Africa (platinum). These winners benefit from the increased exports to China at a higher price due to the ever increasing demands of China. Mixed countries are some resource-rich but oil-importing countries, such as Botswanan and the Central African Republic. These countries benefit from resource exports, but are hurt by oil imports. Losers are oil-importing countries producing agricultural commodities or textile exporting countries, such as Madagascar and Mauritius. These countries are suffering from the cost of oil import [49].

  14. Some current developments of conflict that involve China will be discussed in the concluding section, along with their implications to the study of China’s image in Africa.

  15. In 2007, China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Qin Gang, made a statement about the eight-point of China’s diplomatic philosophy during his Asia trip. He stated that “we maintain all countries, big or small, should be treated equally and respect each other. All affairs should be consulted and resolved by all countries on the basis of equal participation. No country should bully others on the basis of strength." (The Washington Times, 2007). https://www

  16. Burkina Faso has missing values in aid. Therefore, it does not appear in the full model that includes the aid variable. However, the dummy variable appears in all other specifications where the country Burkina Faso has non-missing values.

  17. Two variables have negative values: FDI and governance. Before applying logarithm, we add a constant to the original values of the variable such that the minimum of the new value range is a small positive number. For the values of FDI, we add 9301; for the values of governance, we add 4.21.

  18. One concern about the integrity of the model specification and of the data is that the four kinds of economic activities may be mis-measured. For example, double counting or miscoding. In the former case, the same dollar amount will be counted twice. Use FDI and contracts for example. Some of the FDI dollar amounts will be also counted as contract dollar amounts (counted twice). This would lead to a high positive correlation between FDI and contracts, but the data exhibits very low correlation. In the latter case, systematically, one economic activity will be miscounted as the other. Again, for example, some of the contract dollar amounts would be recorded only as FDI dollar amounts or vice versa. This will translate into a high negative correlation, but the correlation does not have this pattern. Thus, the concerns about a systematic mismeasurement among the four variables could be significantly alleviated.

  19. We removed the control variables that have a p-value larger than 0.50.

  20. For example, Eswatini has a lower HDI index than its neighbors, but that does not prevent it from being the only African country rejecting diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. There have been hypotheses that the unique political setup of the country (i.e. a monarchy) is the reason that Eswatini maintains its embassy in Taipei, rather than in Beijing.

  21. We thank an anonymous reviewer for this insight.

  22. See China’s Soft-Power Failure: Condemning Hong Kong’s Protests https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/20/business/china-hong-kong-social-media-soft-power.html.

  23. See Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/.

  24. The survey was jointly conducted by the Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies and London-headquartered consulting company Kantar Group in 2019. 11,000 respondents across 22 countries were surveyed. See China's national image continues to improve: survey.

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-15/Survey-China-s-image-steadily-improving--TNWRIj8bSg/index.html.

  25. We owe this observation to an anonymous reviewer.

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  1. Department of International Studies, Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, CA, USA

    Jingjing An & Yi Feng

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An, J., Feng, Y. Do the “Dragon’s Gifts” Improve China’s National Image? An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Relations and Public Perceptions of China in Africa. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 27, 747–770 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-022-09793-4

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