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The People’s Republic of China Leadership Transition and its External Relations: Still Searching for Definitive Answers

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Abstract

This article constitutes the introduction to this special issue. It critically reviews the literature on leaders and foreign policy and considers the possibility that leaders might matter more in the case of Chinese foreign policy. In addition, it examines some of the, often erroneous, judgments that have been made about the power of Chinese policymakers, focusing on uncertainties relating to the power of Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose actual power continues to be a subject of considerable debate. Furthermore, it recommends some metrics that might be used to more systematically evaluate the power of Chinese elites. Beyond this, it summarizes the articles in the special issue and what they say about the issue of China’s leadership transition and Chinese foreign policy. It concludes with some theoretical and policy conclusions and identifies some avenues for further research.

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Notes

  1. “Present at the Creation” was the title former US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Dean Acheson gave to his memoirs.

  2. For a similar point, but slightly different list of names, see ([19]: 108].

  3. For such an argument vis-à-vis US-China relations, see [24].

  4. To be fair, such works typically pay some homage to other variables like Chinese culture, domestic politics, history, ideology, and economic development imperatives.

  5. Byman and Pollack ([19]: 140–45) point out we should intrinsically expect leaders to have greater prominence in authoritarian regimes or regimes with weak institutions. Both features apply to China.

  6. Bachman ([40]: 32–34) contends that China’s contemporary international security and economic contexts dilute the power and relevance of external stimuli.

  7. This argument runs through ([61]: 67, 72–73, 82).

  8. Some (roughly) similar ideas appear in ([48]: 34).

  9. A classic example demonstrating how little in known about what transpires in the inner court was a Hong Kong paper’s report in July 2011 that Jiang Zemin had died [100]. The reality is that he still continues to exert power as of this writing [101].

  10. For a comprehensive examination of various aspects of the US-China relationship, see [102].

  11. See [103] for a recent analysis of PRC-Taiwan dynamics.

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  1. School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiaotong University, 1954 Huashan Road, New Building, 3rd Floor, Shanghai, 200030, China

    Jean-Marc F. Blanchard

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The views in this paper are my own and not those of any institution with which I am affiliated. The author would like to thank the Mr. & Mrs. S.H. Wong Foundation for providing the research funding that made this special issue possible. He also would like to thank the editor-in-chief of the Journal of Chinese Political Science for supporting this special issue.

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Blanchard, JM.F. The People’s Republic of China Leadership Transition and its External Relations: Still Searching for Definitive Answers. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 20, 1–16 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-014-9324-0

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