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Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve: assessing the impact of climate policy uncertainty in the Belt and Road Initiative

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Abstract

Climate change repercussions such as temperature shifts and more severe weather occurrences are felt globally. It contributes to larger-scale challenges, such as climate change and biodiversity loss in food production. As a result, the purpose of this research is to develop strategies to grow the economy without harming the environment. Therefore, we revisit the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, considering the impact of climate policy uncertainty along with other control variables. We investigated yearly panel data from 47 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) nations from 1998 to 2021. Pooled regression, fixed effect, and the generalized method of moment (GMM) findings all confirmed the presence of inverted U-shaped EKC in BRI counties. Findings from this paper provide policymakers with actionable ideas, outlining a framework for bringing trade and climate agendas into harmony in BRI countries. The best way to promote economic growth and reduce carbon dioxide emissions is to push for trade and climate policies to be coordinated. Moreover, improving institutional quality is essential for strong environmental governance, as it facilitates the adoption of environmentally friendly industrialization techniques and the efficient administration of climate policy uncertainties.

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Fig. 1

Source: Green Finance & Development Center, FISF Fudan University (https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-bri/?cookie-state-change=1695917402479)

Fig. 2

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Abbreviations

EQ:

Environmental quality

C02:

Carbon dioxide emissions

EP:

Ecological footprint

IND:

Industrialization

GDP:

Gross domestic product

FD:

Financial development

TO:

Trade openness

IQ:

Institutional quality

BRI:

Belt and Road Initiative

OLS:

Ordinary least square

GMM:

Generalized methods of moments

PCA:

Principal component analysis

SDG:

Sustainable development goals

EKC:

Environmental Kuznets curve

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Foreign Studies, Yiwu Industrial & Commercial College, Yiwu, China

    Yi Huang

  2. Faculty of Economics & Commerce, Superior University, Lahore, Pakistan

    Saif Ur Rahman

  3. Sunway Business School, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

    Muhammad Saeed Meo

  4. University of Economics and Human Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

    Muhammad Saeed Meo

  5. Business School Zhengzhou University, Henan, China

    Muhammad Sibt E. Ali

  6. University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

    Sarwar Khan

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Contributions

YH: writing—Introduction, original draft, and supervision.

SUR: initial draft preparation, data analysis, and original draft.

MSM: conceptualization, writing—methodology.

MSEA: explanation of results.

SK: writing—Literature review.

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Correspondence to Saif Ur Rahman.

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Huang, Y., Rahman, S.U., Meo, M.S. et al. Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve: assessing the impact of climate policy uncertainty in the Belt and Road Initiative. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 10579–10593 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31471-y

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