Abstract
The natural gas (NG) forms the sizeable portion of the primary energy consumption in Pakistan. However, its depleting domestic reserves and increasing demand is challenging to balance the supply–demand in the country. This paper investigates the relationship between NG consumption and driving factors using LMDI-STIRPAT PLSR framework. It is learned that fossil energy structure and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) are most influencing factors on NG consumption, followed by non-clean energy structure, energy intensity, and population. The factors were further modelled to forecast the future values of NG consumption for various scenarios. It is found that NG consumption would be 42.107 MTOE under the high development scenario which would be twice the baseline scenario. It is projected that indigenous NG production will fall from 4 to 2 billion cubic feet/day and demand will increase by 1.5 billion cubic feet/day. Therefore, an optimized strategy is required for a long-term solution to cater this increasing supply–demand.
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Data availability
All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article. Also, the datasets are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Abbreviations
- BCFD:
-
Billion cubic feet per day
- CNG:
-
Compressed natural gas
- ETS:
-
Error trend seasonality
- EKC:
-
Environmental Kuznets curve
- FE:
-
Fossil energy
- GC:
-
Gas consumption
- GDP:
-
Gross domestic product
- IEA:
-
International Energy Agency
- II:
-
Industrial intensity
- LPG:
-
Liquefied petroleum gas
- LNG:
-
Liquefied natural gas
- LMDI :
-
Logarithmic Mean Division Index
- MTOE:
-
Million tons of oil equivalents
- MAPE:
-
Mean absolute percentage error
- MASE:
-
Mean absolute square error
- MAE:
-
Mean absolute error
- MPE:
-
Mean percentage error
- MB:
-
Million barrels
- NG:
-
Natural gas
- OECD:
-
Organization of Economic Corporation Development
- OLS:
-
Ordinary least squares
- PLSR:
-
Partial least square regression
- PNG:
-
Piped natural gas
- PG:
-
Per capita GDP
- PE:
-
Primary energy
- RMSE:
-
Root mean square error
- STIRPAT:
-
Stochastic Impact of Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology
- SI:
-
Services intensity
- TAPI:
-
Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India
- TEI:
-
Total energy intensity
- VIF:
-
Variable inflation factor
- VIP:
-
Variable importance projection
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IHL: conceptualization, data curation, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, software, validation, visualization, writing—original draft. FS: conceptualization, formal analysis, writing—review and editing, supervision. KH: formal analysis, writing—review and editing, supervision. LK: conceptualization, data curation, investigation, formal analysis, writing—review and editing. VD: formal analysis, review, and editing.
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Highlights
• Investigation of relationship between natural gas consumption and its driving factors.
• A comprehensive LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework for forecasting.
• Fossil energy structure and per capita GDP found to be the most influencing factors.
• Consumption is forecasted to increase at much higher rate than the available supply.
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Lund, I.H., Shaikh, F., Harijan, K. et al. Prospects of natural gas consumption in Pakistan: based on the LMDI-STIRPAT PLSR framework. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 2090–2103 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31274-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31274-1