Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A time series forecasting analysis of overall and sector-based natural gas demand: a developing South Asian economy case

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Environmental Science and Pollution Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Pakistan is developing South Asian country which is currently considering alternative energy sources including coal, solar, compressed natural gas, and wind energy to cope with the worst energy crisis in its history. Moreover, the policy promotion of compressed natural gas especially in the transport sector has raised concerns about the demand management of natural gas to avoid future shortages and ensure sustainable use of this precious non-renewable source of energy. Against this background, this study aimed to forecast natural gas demand in Pakistan for the 2016–2030 period by applying relevant univariate time series econometric methods. Apart from forecasting the overall natural gas demand, the forecasting analysis is also conducted for natural gas demand in Pakistan’s total natural gas consumption and also for natural gas consumption across the household, industrial, commercial, transport, fertilizer production, power generation, and cement production sectors. Overall, the findings revealed that ARIMA is the appropriate model for forecasting gas consumption in Pakistan. Further, the growth of increase in the level of compressed natural gas consumption in the household sector is more as compared to all other sectors of the economy up to the year 2030. The key findings show that (a) natural gas consumption is likely to grow with time, (b) mixed projection trends are observed for the overall natural gas consumption and other sector-based natural gas consumption trends, and (c) the difference between natural gas consumption and production in Pakistan is likely to grow leading to 2030. As part of the policy recommendation in line with the findings, policymakers in Pakistan should increase the availability of natural gas, particularly in sectors where its consumption is likely to be declining. In addition, more proactive measures should be undertaken to explore the existing natural gas reserves in the long run while also importing natural gas from the neighboring nations in the short run. Furthermore, the government of Pakistan should seriously consider strategizing the development of the nation’s compressed natural gas sector.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Source: The shares of different fuels in the electricity output are shown along the primary axis; the natural gas rents (% of GDP) are shown along the secondary axis. Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank 2022)

Fig. 2

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (British Petroleum 2018)

Fig. 3

Source: Authors’ compilation

Fig. 4

Source: Authors’ compilation

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

Data will be made available upon request.

Notes

  1. For each variable, the possible combinations of m and n are 81. In the text, only the optimum combinations (selected on the basis of mean absolute percent error) have been reported. The optimum combinations of “m” and “n” possess the minimum mean absolute percent error as compared to other combinations.

References

  • Ahmed Z, Cary M, Ali S, Murshed M, Ullah H, Mahmood H (2021) Moving toward a green revolution in Japan: symmetric and asymmetric relationships among clean energy technology development investments, economic growth, and CO2 emissions. Energy Environ 0958305X211041780

  • Anik AR, Rahman S (2021) Commercial energy demand forecasting in Bangladesh. Energies 14(19):6394

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • APP (2011) Natural gas consumption declines, Pakistan Observer

  • Aras H, Aras N (2004) Forecasting residential natural gas demand. Energy Sources 26:463–472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bandyopadhyay A, Rej S (2021) Can nuclear energy fuel an environmentally sustainable economic growth? Revisiting the EKC hypothesis for India. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28(44):63065–63086

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bandyopadhyay A, Rej S, Villanthenkodath MA, Mahalik MK (2022) The role of nuclear energy consumption in abatement of ecological footprint: Novel insights from quantile-on-quantile regression. J Clean Prod 132052. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132052

  • Box GE, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC (2011) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. John Wiley & Sons

  • British Petroleum (2018) BP statistical review of world energy. Available at http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview (accessed on 2.2.2022)

  • Deb C, Zhang F, Yang J, Lee SE, Shah KW (2017) A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 74:902–924

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Destek MA, Sinha A (2020) Renewable, non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and ecological footprint: Evidence from organisation for economic co-operation and development countries. J Clean Prod 242:118537

  • Gao F, Shao X (2021) Forecasting annual natural gas consumption via the application of a novel hybrid model. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28(17):21411–21424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gutierrez R, Nafidi A, Sánchez RG (2005) Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model. Appl Energy 80:115–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herrero M, Ibañez E (2018) Green extraction processes, biorefineries and sustainability: recovery of high added-value products from natural sources. J Supercrit Fluids 134:252–259

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hilal AR (2018) Development of CNG Industry in Pakistan. In: Resources, H.D.I.o.P.M.o.P.N. (Ed.)

  • Hussain A, Rahman M, Memon JA (2016) Forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan: the way forward. Energy Policy 90:73–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2010) The contribution of natural gas vehicles to sustainable transport. IEA, Paris. https://www.iea.org/reports/the-contribution-of-natural-gas-vehicles-to-sustainable-transport. Accessed 2 Feb 2022

  • IEA (2017) The environmental case for natural gas. IEA, Paris. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-environmental-case-for-natural-gas. Accessed 2 Feb 2022

  • IEA (2019) The role of gas in today’s energy transitions. IEA, Paris. https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-gas-in-todays-energy-transitions. Accessed 2 Feb 2022

  • Imamuddin (2013) Pakistan ranked 7th in world having coal reserves, Business Recorder

  • Kanat O, Yan Z, Asghar MM, Ahmed Z, Mahmood H, Murshed M, Kirikkaleli D (2022) Do natural gas, oil, and coal consumption ameliorate environmental quality? Empirical evidence from Russia. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:4540–4556. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15989-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khotanzad A, Elragal H, Lu T-L (2000) Combination of artificial neural-network forecasters for prediction of natural gas consumption. IEEE Trans Neural Netw 11:464–473

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mining Technology, 2013. Countries with the biggest coal reserves, Mine

  • NGV (2017) NGV Global database. Available at http://www.ngvglobal.org/ngv-statistics/ (accessed on 20.2.2022)

  • Raza MY, Lin B (2022) Natural gas consumption, energy efficiency and low carbon transition in Pakistan. Energy 240:122497

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raza MA, Khatri KL, Israr A, Haque MIU, Ahmed M, Rafique K, Saand AS (2022) Energy demand and production forecasting in Pakistan. Energ Strat Rev 39:100788

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rehman A, Deyuan Z (2018) Pakistan’s energy scenario: a forecast of commercial energy consumption and supply from different sources through 2030. Energy, Sustainability and Society 8(1):1–5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rehman SAU, Cai Y, Fazal R, Das Walasai G, Mirjat NH (2017) An integrated modeling approach for forecasting long-term energy demand in Pakistan. Energies 10(11):1868

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rehman A, Zhu JJ, Segovia J, Anderson PR (2022) Assessment of deep learning and classical statistical methods on forecasting hourly natural gas demand at multiple sites in Spain. Energy 244:122562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogan F, Cahill CJ, Gallachóir BPÓ (2012) Decomposition analysis of gas consumption in the residential sector in Ireland. Energy Policy 42:19–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahbaz M (2015) Measuring economic cost of electricity shortage: current challenges and future prospects in Pakistan (No. 67164). University Library of Munich, Germany

  • Sharma R, Sinha A, Kautish P (2021) Does renewable energy consumption reduce ecological footprint? Evidence from eight developing countries of Asia. J of Clean Prod 285:124867

  • Sharif A, Baris-Tuzemen O, Uzuner G, Ozturk I, Sinha A (2020) Revisiting the role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on Turkey’s ecological footprint: evidence from Quantile ARDL approach. Sustain Cities Soc 57:102138

  • Sohail HM, Li Z, Murshed M, Alvarado R, Mahmood H (2022) An analysis of the asymmetric effects of natural gas consumption on economic growth in Pakistan: a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:5687–5702. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15987-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsai S-B, Xue Y, Zhang J, Chen Q, Liu Y, Zhou J, Dong W (2016) Models for forecasting growth trends in renewable energy. Renew Sust Energ Rev

  • Wadud Z, Dey HS, Kabir MA, Khan SI (2011) Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh. Energy Policy 39:7372–7380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2022) World Development Indicators. Available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators# (Accessed on 20.4.2022)

  • Yucesan M, Pekel E, Celik E, Gul M, Serin F (2021) Forecasting daily natural gas consumption with regression, time series and machine learning based methods. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects 1–16

  • Zafar MW, Shahbaz M, Sinha A, Sengupta T, Qin Q (2020) How renewable energy consumption contribute to environmental quality? The role of education in OECD countries. J Clean Prod 268:122149

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics and Development Studies, University of Swat, Swat, Pakistan

    Anwar Hussain & Umar Hayat

  2. Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi, Pakistan

    Junaid Alam Memon

  3. School of Business and Economics, North South University, Dhaka, 1229, Bangladesh

    Muntasir Murshed

  4. Department of Journalism, Media and Communications, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Muntasir Murshed

  5. Department of Economics & Finance, College of Business Administration, University of Bahrain, Sakhir, Bahrain

    Md Shabbir Alam

  6. Remote Sensing, GIS, and Climatic Research Lab (RSGCRL), National Center of GIS and Space Applications, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

    Usman Mehmood

  7. Department of Political Science, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan

    Usman Mehmood

  8. Department of Accounting, College of Business Administration, University of Bahrain, Sakhir, Bahrain

    Mohammad Noor Alam

  9. Islamia College University Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Muhammad Rahman

Authors
  1. Anwar Hussain
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Junaid Alam Memon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Muntasir Murshed
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Md Shabbir Alam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Usman Mehmood
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Mohammad Noor Alam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Muhammad Rahman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Umar Hayat
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

AH: conceptualized and wrote the final manuscript. JAM: analyzed the data and helped in drafting the original manuscript. MM: conceptualized and wrote the final manuscript. MSA: wrote the original draft and assisted in analysis and discussions. UM: helped in discussions and analysis. MNA: aided in drafting the original manuscript. MR: contributed data and helped in analysis and discussions. UH: wrote the conclusion and policy recommendations.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Muntasir Murshed.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

Not applicable

Consent to participate

Not applicable

Consent for publication

Not applicable

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Roula Inglesi-Lotz

Publisher's note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendix

Appendix

Table

Table 4 Global proven natural gas reserves
Full size table

4

Table

Table 5 Natural gas-run vehicles and refueling stations in the year 2016
Full size table

5

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hussain, A., Memon, J.A., Murshed, M. et al. A time series forecasting analysis of overall and sector-based natural gas demand: a developing South Asian economy case. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 71676–71687 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20861-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20861-3

Keywords

JEL Classification

Search

Navigation