Complexity influence of societal development comprehensive indicators on building carbon emission: empirical evidence from China

Abstract

Carbon mitigation in the building sector is crucial for China to fulfill its commitments towards achieving a carbon peak and carbon neutrality. However, the impact of societal development and ecological indicators on building carbon emissions remains unclear. This study employs the panel smooth transition regression model to investigate the complex implications of societal development comprehensive indicators, characterized by harmonious development, decoupling, and technological advances, on buildings’ total carbon emissions, based on the evidence from China’s 30 provinces for the period between 2007 and 2020. Additionally, the robustness of the model confirms that the conclusion is still valid. The empirical results indicate a strongly non-linear relationship between societal development comprehensive indicators and building carbon emissions. Both the harmonious development and technological advances exhibit two transition functions, and decoupling features a single transition function. Harmonious development is more sensitive to the impact of building carbon emissions, while technological advances have tremendous emission reduction potential. From the time dimension, fluctuation trends and ranges are different. From the spatial dimension, the inhibiting and promoting effects on each province have regional heterogeneity. Our results entail suggestions for reduced building total carbon emissions and practical strategies for regional climate resilience and efficiency in mitigating climate change.

Appendices

Appendix 1

This research mainly considers the harmonious development of the economy (EC) and environment (EN). The corresponding indicators and weights of the subsystem are shown in Tables

Table 11 Indicators and weights corresponding to the economy system

11 and

Table 12 Indicators and weights corresponding to the environment system

12.

The harmonious development index HDI is shown in Eq. (10).

$$HDI=\sqrt{C\times R}$$

(10)

C means coupling degree calculated in Eq. (11).

$$C={\left\{\frac{EC\times EN}{{(\frac{EC+EN}{2})}^{2}}\right\}}^{2}$$

(11)

R means development degree of the system calculated in Eq. (12).

$$R=EC\times {W}_{EC}+EN\times {W}_{EN}$$

(12)

EC and EN represent the comprehensive assessment value of the economy and environment, respectively. W_EC and W_EN, respectively, represent the weight. Considering that this study aims to achieve the coordinated development of building economy and building carbon emissions, they are given equal weight, respectively.

This paper uses the Tapio decoupling model to measure the decoupling relationships between building economics and building carbon emissions. Equation (13) can be used to calculate the decoupling elasticity value.

$$TDI=\frac{\Delta C{O}_{2}/{CO}_{2}^{0}}{\Delta IGDP/IGD{P}^{0}}=\frac{({CO}_{2}^{T}-{CO}_{2}^{0})/{CO}_{2}^{0}}{(IGD{P}^{T}-IGD{P}^{0})/IGD{P}^{0}}$$

(13)

CO₂ denotes building total carbon emissions (calculation in this paper), CO₂⁰ and CO₂^T represent total building carbon emissions in the base year 0 and year T, respectively. IGDP denotes the gross output value of the construction industry (from China Statistical Yearbook on Construction), and IGDP⁰ and IGDP^T represent the gross output value of the construction industry in the base year 0 and year T, respectively. ∆CO₂ and ∆IGDP indicate the change in total building carbon emissions and gross output value of construction between the base year and year T, respectively.

Figure 

Fig. 10

Decoupling states based on the Tapio model

10 shows the decoupling statuses according to the size of the coefficients. It is important to emphasize that a strong decoupling state ensures low-carbon development, while strong negative decoupling predicts the worst.

This article uses the proportion of TCE to GRP to indicate the degree of technological advances.

Appendix 2

The building total carbon emission can be defined as Eq. (14):

$$TCE={C}_{mp}+{C}_{c}+{C}_{bo}$$

(14)

In Eq. (14), C_mp, C_c, and C_bo separately represent carbon emissions of material production, construction, and building operation, defined as Eqs. (15)–(17).

$${C}_{mp}=\sum_{i=1}^{5}{C}_{i}\times {\alpha }_{i}$$

(15)

$${C}_{c}={C}_{c1}+{C}_{c2}=\sum_{j=1}^{21}{C}_{j}\times {\alpha }_{j}+{C}_{ce}\times {\alpha }_{e}+{C}_{h}\times {\alpha }_{h}$$

(16)

$${C}_{bo}={C}_{bo1}+{C}_{bo2}+{C}_{bo3}+{C}_{bo4}+{C}_{bo5}=\sum_{ct=1}^{4}{C}_{ct}\times {\alpha }_{ct}+{C}_{ng}\times {\alpha }_{ng}+{C}_{pg}\times {\alpha }_{pg}+{C}_{boe}\times {\alpha }_{e}+{C}_{he}\times {\alpha }_{h}$$

(17)

C_c1 and C_c2 separately represent the direct and indirect emissions in construction. C_bo1, C_bo2, C_bo3, C_bo4, and C_bo5 individually refer to coal total, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, electricity (including public buildings, which consist mainly of wholesale and retail trades, hotels and catering services, and others, urban housing operation, rural housing operation), and heating in northern towns’ carbon emissions. C_i, C_j, C_e, C_h, C_ct, C_ng, C_pg, C_boe, and C_he are the amounts of building materials, fossil fuel, construction electricity, heat, coal total, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, operation electricity, and heating in northern towns. α_i, α_j, α_e, α_h, α_ct, α_ng, and α_pg represent the carbon emission factors of building materials, fossil fuel, electricity, heat, coal total, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas.