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Influence of short- and long-term persistence on identification of rainfall temporal trends using different versions of the Mann-Kendall test in Mizoram, Northeast India

  • Energy, Environment and Green Technologies for the Future Sustainability
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Abstract

Investigating the temporal dynamics of rainfall in a changing climate, especially in rainfed agriculture regions, is crucial for analyzing climate-induced changes and offering adaptation options. Since Mizoram experiences unfavorable impacts of rain nearly every year, the region rainfall has been altering over the years, and vital climatic activity is becoming uncontrollable. The current study is primarily concerned with the changing trend of rainfall over Mizoram, which includes both short-term persistence (STP) and long-term persistence (LTP) of rainfall in seasonal and annual time series of rainfall overseeing for the period of 25 years of daily average rainfall from 1996 to 2020 collected collectively from the seven stations over the study area of Mizoram. Four different Mann-Kendall method iterations were used to analyze rainfall trends: the original or conventional method (without autocorrelation) (MnKn1), removing lag-1 autocorrelation (trend-free pre-whitening), considering multiple lag autocorrelation (more than lag-1 autocorrelation) (MnKn3), and Hurst coefficient or LTP (MnKn4). In the analysis, the study found that during monsoon, station Lawngtlai (LT) observed the highest rainfall having a Z value of 1.986, increased by 0.466 cm/year, while station Serchhip (SC) observed the lowest rainfall having Z value of −2.282, decreased by −0.163 cm/year. After applying modified MnKn4, we observed LTP of rainfall in winter at station Lawngtlai (LT) with an increasing trend and other stations observing STP in almost all seasons either increasing or decreasing trend. Therefore, possible climate change adaptation measures should be made to optimize rainfall use for various applications for the states of Mizoram.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Mizoram Meteorology and Water Management Department for freely providing the data used in this study. None of the data used belongs to any person in any form.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural Engineering, North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology (NERIST), Nirjuli, Itanagar, Arunachal Pradesh, India

    Vanita Pandey, Pankaj Kumar Pandey, Bivek Chakma & Prem Ranjan

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  1. Vanita Pandey
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  2. Pankaj Kumar Pandey
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  3. Bivek Chakma
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  4. Prem Ranjan
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Contributions

Conceived and designed the analysis: Vanita Pandey. Formal analysis and investigation, draft writing: Bivek Chakma. Final writing, review, and editing: Pankaj Kumar Pandey. Supervision: Vanita Pandey. Editing and critical revision: Prem Ranjan. All authors of this paper have directly participated in this study’s writing, editing, planning, execution, and analysis.

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Correspondence to Pankaj Kumar Pandey.

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Pandey, V., Pandey, P.K., Chakma, B. et al. Influence of short- and long-term persistence on identification of rainfall temporal trends using different versions of the Mann-Kendall test in Mizoram, Northeast India. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 10359–10378 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29436-2

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