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Effect of autocorrelation on temporal trends in rainfall in a valley region at the foothills of Indian Himalayas

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Abstract

This study examines the effect of autocorrelation on step and monotonic trends in seasonal and annual rainfall. Initially, for step change, modified-Pettitt test is applied in two ways. First, using the corrected and unbiased trend-free-pre-whitening (TFPWcu) approach. Second, using a new approach in which time series is modelled by intervention analysis for modified Pettitt test. Subsequently, for monotonic trends, Mann–Kendall (MK) and six approaches of modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test are applied to NCDC data for period 1901–2012 and its sub-periods. Approaches of MMK include pre-whitening (PW), trend-free-pre-whitening (TFPW), TFPWcu, two Variance Correction Approaches (VCAs) based on empirical formula (VCA:CF1) and Monte-Carlo-Simulations (VCA:CF2) and long term persistence (MK-LTP). A single change point is identified in 1970 for annual and monsoon rainfall from original and modified-Pettitt’s test using TFPWcu, while time series modelling approach has not exhibited any change point. Process shift in rainfall series is also studied using CUSUM and multiple change points are identified using Segment-Neighbourhood method. Outcomes of MMK show that TFPWcu is able to efficiently limit the effect of autocorrelation and may be preferred over PW and TFPW. The VCA:CF2 is not dependent on whole autocorrelation structure and corrects variance of all data series using lag-1 autocorrelation and may be preferred over VCA:CF1. MK-LTP considers long term persistence and it has exhibited presence of weaker trends than exhibited by other approaches. VCA:CF2 and MK-LTP are used to study trends of rainfall in Dehradun.

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Acknowledgements

This study has been carried out under a doctoral program supported by the Ministry of Human Resource Development, India. The first author gratefully acknowledges the MHRD, India, for financial support. Authors are thankful to the editor and anonymous reviewers for their helpful and valuable suggestions which have contributed to this improved manuscript.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India

    Atul Kant Piyoosh & Sanjay Kumar Ghosh

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Piyoosh, A.K., Ghosh, S.K. Effect of autocorrelation on temporal trends in rainfall in a valley region at the foothills of Indian Himalayas. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 2075–2096 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1347-y

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