Abstract
While economic development-driven anthropogenic emissions pose challenges to ecological sustainability, the international travel and tourism sector has appeared as a hot contestant to bring sustainability to the ecological systems across varying development levels. This work investigates the diversified effects of the international travel and tourism sector and economic development on ecological deterioration, in the presence of urban agglomeration and energy use efficiency, across the development levels of China’s 30 provincial units from 2002 to 2019. It contributes in two ways. (i) The stochastic estimation of environmental impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) is modified to integrate the variables like international travel and tourism sector, urban agglomeration, and energy use efficiency. (ii) We measured an international travel and tourism sector index (ITTI) and made use of a continuously updated bias correction strategy (CUBCS) and a continuously updated fully modified strategy (CUFMS) for the long-term estimations. Besides, we used the bootstrapping-based causality technique for determining causality directions. The core results are as follows: Firstly, ITTI and economic development produced an inverse U-type association with ecological deterioration for the aggregate panels. Secondly, provinces exhibited a diverse range of links in that ITTI mitigated (boosted) the ecological deterioration in eleven (fourteen) provinces presenting diversified shapes of linkages. Economic development established the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory with ecological deterioration in merely four provinces; however, the non-EKC theory is verified in twenty-four divisions. Thirdly, in China’s east zone (high development scale), the ITTI revealed the ecological deterioration reduction (promotion) impact in eight (two) provinces. China’s central zone (moderate development scale) exhibited ecological deterioration promotion in half of the provinces, and the other half showed a reduction impact. In China’s west zone (low development scale), it promoted ecological deterioration in eight provinces. Economic development promoted (reduced) ecological deterioration in a single (nine) province(s). In China’s central zone, it boosted (mitigated) the ecological deterioration in five (three) provinces. In China’s west zone, it promoted (reduced) ecological deterioration in eight (two) provinces. Fourthly, urban agglomeration and energy use efficiency deteriorated and improved the environmental quality in aggregated panels, respectively; however, a diverse range of effects are observed for provinces. Finally, a unilateral bootstrap causality, from ITTI (economic development) to ecological deterioration, is revealed in twenty-four (fifteen) provinces. A bilateral causality is established in a single (thirteen) province(s). Based on empirical findings, policies are suggested.
Graphical Abstract
Highlights
• Calculated international travel and tourism sector index (ITTI).
• Employed wastewater emissions (WWE) to proxy for ecological deterioration.
• ITTI and economic development had an inverse U-shape with WWE for aggregate panels.
• Highest developed provinces had WWE discounting effect with inverse U-shape.
• Lowest developed provinces had WWE promotion effect with diverse shapes.
• Overall, unidirectional causality from ITTI and economic development to WWE.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this article.
Abbreviations
- ITTI :
-
International travel and tourism sector index
- WWE :
-
Wastewater emissions
- AFV :
-
Arrivals of foreign visitors
- ERITT :
-
Exchange revenues from international travel and tourism
- TTA :
-
Travel and tourism agencies
- SRH :
-
Star-ranked hotels
- UA :
-
Urban agglomeration
- GDPPC :
-
Gross domestic product per capita
- EE :
-
Energy use efficiency
- PCA:
-
Principal component analysis
- CUBCS:
-
Continuously updated bias correction strategy
- CUFMS:
-
Continuously updated and fully modified strategy
- CSDN:
-
Cross section dependency
- CIPS:
-
CSDN augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin
- RP:
-
Robust probability outcome
- RCIPS:
-
Robust CIPS
- G α , G t :
-
Group-mean-based tests
- P α, P t :
-
Panel-based tests
References
Ahmad M, Jabeen G (2023) Relating economic openness and export diversification to eco-efficiency: Is green innovation critical? Int J Financ Econ. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2825
Ahmad M, Satrovic E (2023) How do transportation-based environmental taxation and globalization contribute to ecological sustainability? Ecol Inform 74:102009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.102009
Ahmad M, Satrovic E (2023) Relating fiscal decentralization and financial inclusion to environmental sustainability: Criticality of natural resources. J Environ Manage 325:116633. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116633
Ahmad M, Wu Y (2022) Natural resources, technological progress, and ecological efficiency: does financial deepening matter for G-20 economies? Resour Policy 77:102770. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102770
Ahmad M, Wu Y (2022) Combined role of green productivity growth, economic globalization, and eco-innovation in achieving ecological sustainability for OECD economies. J Environ Manage 302:113980. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113980
Ahmad M, Zhu X, Wu Y (2022) The criticality of international tourism and technological innovation for carbon neutrality across regional development levels. Technol Forecast Soc Change 182:121848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121848
Ansari AM, Haider S, Khan NA (2020) Environmental Kuznets curve revisited: an analysis using ecological and material footprint. Ecol Indic 115:106416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106416
Badeeb RA, Lean HH, Shahbaz M (2020) Are too many natural resources to blame for the shape of the environmental Kuznets curve in resource-based economies? Resour Policy 68:101694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101694
Bai J, Kao C, Ng S (2009) Panel cointegration with global stochastic trends. J Econom 149:82–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.10.012
Bai J, Kao C (2006) On the estimation and inference of a panel cointegration model with cross-sectional dependence. Contrib Econ Anal 274:3–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0573-8555(06)74001-9
Balsalobre-Lorente D, Nur T, Topaloglu EE, Evcimen C (2023b) Assessing the impact of the economic complexity on the ecological footprint in G7 countries: fresh evidence under human development and energy innovation processes. Gondwana Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2023.03.017
Balsalobre-Lorente D, Driha OM, Leitão NC, Murshed M (2021) The carbon dioxide neutralizing effect of energy innovation on international tourism in EU-5 countries under the prism of the EKC hypothesis. J Environ Manage 298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113513
Balsalobre-Lorente D, Abbas J, He C et al (2023a) Tourism, urbanization and natural resources rents matter for environmental sustainability: the leading role of AI and ICT on sustainable development goals in the digital era. Resour Policy 82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103445
Baltagi BH, Pesaran MH (2007) Heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in panel data models: theory and applications introduction. J Appl Econom 22:229–232. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae
Baltagi BH, Feng Q, Kao C (2012) A Lagrange multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model. J Econom 170:164–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004
Baltagi BH, Kao C, Peng B (2016) Testing cross-sectional correlation in large panel data models with serial correlation. Econometrics 4:1–24. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics4040044
Bera AK, Jarque CM (1981) Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression. J Am Stat Assoc 7:313–318
Chudik A, Mohaddes K, Pesaran MH, Raissi M (2015) Long-run effects in large heterogenous panel data models with cross-sectionally correlated errors. Fed Reserv Bank Dallas, Glob Monet Policy Inst Work Pap. https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp223
Damrah S, Satrovic E, Atyeh M, Shawtari FA (2022a) Employing the panel quantile regression approach to examine the role of natural resources in achieving environmental sustainability: does globalization create some difference? Mathematics 10:1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10244795
Damrah S, Satrovic E, Shawtari FA (2022b) How does fi nancial inclusion affect environmental degradation in the six oil exporting countries? The moderating role of information and communication technology. Front Environ Sci 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1013326
Dietz T, Rosa EA (1994) Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Hum Ecol Rev 1:277–300
Dietz T, Rosa EA (1997) Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Natl Acad Sci USA 94:175–179
Dinda S (2004) Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: a survey. Ecol Econ 49:431–455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.02.011
Dogan E, Aslan A (2017) Exploring the relationship among CO2 emissions, real GDP, energy consumption and tourism in the EU and candidate countries: evidence from panel models robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 77:239–245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.111
Dogan E, Chishti MZ, KarimiAlavijeh N, Tzeremes P (2022) The roles of technology and Kyoto Protocol in energy transition towards COP26 targets: evidence from the novel GMM-PVAR approach for G-7 countries. Technol Forecast Soc Change 181:121756. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121756
Dogan E, Hodžić S, Šikić TF (2023) Do energy and environmental taxes stimulate or inhibit renewable energy deployment in the European Union? Renew Energy 202:1138–1145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.11.107
Eberhardt M (2012) Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes. Stata J 12:61–71. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x1201200105
Gao J, Xu W, Zhang L (2021) Tourism, economic growth, and tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: evidence from the Mediterranean region. Empir Econ 60:1507–1529. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01787-1
Global Carbon Atlas (2021) GCA. In: Glob. Carbon Atlas. http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions. Accessed 20 Jan 2023
Ghosh S, Balsalobre-Lorente D, Doğan B et al (2022) Modelling an empirical framework of the implications of tourism and economic complexity on environmental sustainability in G7 economies. J Clean Prod 376:134281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134281
Granger CWJ (2003) Some aspects of causal relationships. J Econom 112:69–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00148-3
Halkos GE, Polemis ML (2017) Does financial development affect environmental degradation? Evidence from the OECD Countries. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.1976
Halkos GE, Polemis ML (2018) The impact of economic growth on environmental efficiency of the electricity sector: a hybrid window DEA methodology for the USA. J Environ Manage 211:334–346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.01.067
Halliru AM, Loganathan N, Golam Hassan AA et al (2020) Re-examining the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in the Economic Community of West African States: a panel quantile regression approach. J Clean Prod 276:124247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124247
Heerink N, Mulatu A, Bulte E (2001) Income inequality and the environment: aggregation bias in environmental Kuznets curves. Ecol Econ 38:359–367
Hodžić S, Šikić TF, Dogan E (2023) Green environment in the EU countries: the role of financial inclusion, natural resources and energy intensity. Resour Policy 82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103476
Hussain M, Dogan E (2021) The role of institutional quality and environment-related technologies in environmental degradation for BRICS. J Clean Prod 304:127059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127059
Im SK, Pesaran MH, Shin Y (2003) Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J Econom 115:53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
IPCC (2022) Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change 9781107025:3–22. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.003
Jabeen G, Yan Q, Ahmad M et al (2020) Household-based critical in fl uence factors of biogas generation technology utilization: a case of Punjab province of Pakistan. Renew Energy 154:650–660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.03.049
Jabeen G, Ahmad M, Zhang Q (2021) Perceived critical factors affecting consumers’ intention to purchase renewable generation technologies: rural-urban heterogeneity. Energy 218:119494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119494
Jabeen G, Ahmad M, Zhang Q (2021b) Factors influencing consumers’ willingness to buy green energy technologies in a green perceived value framework. Energy Sources, Part B Econ Plan, Policy 16:669–685. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1952494
Jabeen G, Ahmad M, Zhang Q (2023) Combined role of economic openness, financial deepening, biological capacity, and human capital in achieving ecological sustainability. Ecol Inform 73:101932. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101932
Jabeen G, Wang D, Işık C et al (2023b) Role of energy utilization intensity, technical development, economic openness, and foreign tourism in environmental sustainability. Gondwana Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2023.03.001
Kacprzyk A, Kuchta Z (2020) Shining a new light on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions. Energy Econ 87:104704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104704
Khan MTI, Yaseen MR, Ali Q (2019) Nexus between financial development, tourism, renewable energy, and greenhouse gas emission in high-income countries: a continent-wise analysis. Energy Econ 83:293–310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.07.018
Khanal A, Rahman MM, Khanam R, Velayutham E (2022) Does tourism contribute towards zero-carbon in Australia? Evidence from ARDL modelling approach. Energy Strateg Rev 43:100907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.100907
Li Z, Song Y, Zhou A et al (2020) Study on the pollution emission ef fi ciency of China’s provincial regions: the perspective of Environmental Kuznets curve. J Clean Prod 263:121497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121497
Liu J, Qu J, Zhao K (2019) Is China’s development conforms to the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and the pollution haven hypothesis? J Clean Prod 234:787–796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.234
Ma H, Liu Y, Li Z, Wang Q (2022) Influencing factors and multi-scenario prediction of China’s ecological footprint based on the STIRPAT model. Ecol Inform 69:101664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101664
Maddala GS, Wu S (1999) A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bull Econ Financ 61:631–652
National Bureau of Statistics of China (2018) China energy statistical yearbook 2018. China Statistics Press, Beijing
Nguyen CP, Su TD (2021) Tourism, institutional quality, and environmental sustainability. Sustain Prod Consum 28:786–801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2021.07.005
Pedroni P (2004) Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econom Theory 20:597–625. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073
Persyn D, Westerlund J (2008) Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data. Stata J 232–241. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0800800205
Pesaran MH (2007) A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. J Appl Econom 22:265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae
Pesaran MH (2015) Testing weak cross-sectional dependence in large panels. Econom Rev 34:1089–1117. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2014.956623
Pesaran HM, Yamagata T (2008) Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. J Econom 142:50–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
Pham NM, Huynh TLD, Nasir MA (2020) Environmental consequences of population, affluence and technological progress for European countries: a Malthusian view. J Environ Manage 260:110143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110143
Rafei M, Esmaeili P, Balsalobre-Lorente D (2022) A step towards environmental mitigation: how do economic complexity and natural resources matter? Focusing on different institutional quality level countries. Resour Policy 78:102848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102848
Rahman MM (2020) Environmental degradation: The role of electricity consumption, economic growth and globalisation. J Environ Manage 253:109742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109742
Raihan A (2023) The dynamic nexus between economic growth, renewable energy use, urbanization, industrialization, tourism, agricultural productivity, forest area, and carbon dioxide emissions in the Philippines. Energy Nexus 9:100180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2023.100180
Raihan A, Tuspekova A (2022) Dynamic impacts of economic growth, energy use, urbanization, tourism, agricultural value-added, and forested area on carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil. J Environ Stud Sci 12:794–814. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-022-00782-w
Robaina M, Madaleno M, Silva S et al (2020) The relationship between tourism and air quality in five European countries. Econ Anal Policy 67:261–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.07.012
Russo MA, Relvas H, Gama C et al (2020) Estimating emissions from tourism activities. Atmos Environ 220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.117048
Satrovic E, Adedoyin FF (2022) An empirical assessment of electricity consumption and environmental degradation in the presence of economic complexities. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21099-9
Sharif A, Godil DI, Xu B et al (2020) Revisiting the role of tourism and globalization in environmental degradation in China: fresh insights from the quantile ARDL approach. J Clean Prod 272:122906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122906
Shariff NSM, Hamzah NA (2015) A robust panel unit root test in the presence of cross sectional dependence. J Mod Appl Stat Methods 14:159–171https://doi.org/10.22237/jmasm/1446351180
Song W, Wang C, Chen W et al (2020) Unlocking the spatial heterogeneous relationship between per capita GDP and nearby air quality using bivariate local indicator of spatial association. Resour Conserv Recycl 160:104880. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104880
Streimikiene D, Svagzdiene B, Jasinskas E, Simanavicius A (2020) Sustainable tourism development and competitiveness: the systematic literature review. Sustain Dev 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2133
Suki MN, Sharif A, Afshan S, Mohd N (2020) Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia: the role of globalization in sustainable environment. J Clean Prod 264:121669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121669
Talevi M, Pattanayak SK, Das I et al (2022) Speaking from experience: preferences for cooking with biogas in rural India. Energy Econ 107:105796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105796
Taskin D, Dogan E, Madaleno M (2022) Analyzing the relationship between energy efficiency and environmental and financial variables: a way towards sustainable development. Energy 252:124045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124045
Tian XL, Bélaïd F, Ahmad N (2021) Exploring the nexus between tourism development and environmental quality: role of renewable energy consumption and Income. Struct Chang Econ Dyn 56:53–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.10.003
Ulucak R, Koçak E, Erdogan S, Kassouri Y (2020) Investigating the non-linear effects of globalization on material consumption in the EU countries: evidence from PSTR estimation. Resour Policy 67:101667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101667
Usman M, Balsalobre-Lorente D, Jahanger A, Ahmad P (2022) Pollution concern during globalization mode in financially resource-rich countries: do financial development, natural resources, and renewable energy consumption matter? Renew Energy 183:90–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.067
Wang Y, Han L, Ma X (2022) International tourism and economic vulnerability. Ann Tour Res 94:103388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2022.103388
WB (2021) World Bank. In: World Dev. Indic. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed 1 Oct 2021
Wei L, Ullah S (2022) International tourism, digital infrastructure, and CO2 emissions: fresh evidence from panel quantile regression approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:36273–36280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18138-2
Westerlund J (2007) Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bull Econ Financ 69:709–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
WTTC (2020) Travel and Tourism: World Economic Impact 2020. https://www.wttc.org. Accessed 02 Jan 2023
Xu F, Huang Q, Yue H et al (2020) Reexamining the relationship between urbanization and pollutant emissions in China based on the STIRPAT model. J Environ Manage 273:111134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111134
Youssef AB, Boubaker S, Omri A (2020) Financial development and macroeconomic sustainability: modeling based on a modified environmental Kuznets curve. Clim Change 163:767–785. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02914-z
Zaman K, Shahbaz M, Loganathan N, Raza SA (2016) Tourism development, energy consumption and environmental Kuznets curve: trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries. Tour Manag 54:275–283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.12.001
Zhang N, Ren R, Zhang Q, Zhang T (2020) Air pollution and tourism development: an interplay. Ann Tour Res 85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.103032
Zhang S, Liu X (2019) The roles of international tourism and renewable energy in environment: new evidence from Asian countries. Renew Energy 139:385–394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.046
Zhang G, Xing L (2023) Research on tourism economic effect under the threshold of new-type urbanization in coastal cities of China: from the perspective of development economics. Ocean Coast Manag 239:106587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106587
Zhang J, Zhang Y (2019) Exploring the impacts of carbon tax on tourism-related energy consumption in China. Sustain Dev 27:296–303. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.1900
Funding
This achievement is partially funded by the Zhejiang soft science research base “digital economy and open economy integration innovation research base.”
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Munir Ahmad: conceptualization, writing—original draft, variable construction, formal analysis. Gul Jabeen: writing—original draft, overall quality improvement, variable construction, and formal analysis.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Eyup Dogan
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Appendices
Appendix 1
Table 11
Diagnostic checks
For ensuring the accuracy of parameter estimates, diagnostic checks are employed. For this, the behavior of the models’ predicted residuals is examined. The findings of the Jarque–Bera test (JT), skewness (SKN), and kurtosis (KT) verified that the predicted residuals follow normality and thus are well-behaved (see Table 12). According to Bera and Jarque (1981), the normal predicted errors confirm the estimated models’ validity. For the current work, all diagnostic checks verified the normality of predicted residuals. Hence, the models are estimated with well-behaved errors and are valid.
Appendix 2
Table 12
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Ahmad, M., Jabeen, G. Do economic development and tourism heterogeneously influence ecological sustainability? Implications for sustainable development. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 87158–87184 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28543-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28543-4
Keywords
- Heterogeneity
- International travel and tourism sector
- Economic development
- Ecological deterioration
- Urban agglomeration
- Energy use efficiency
- Sustainable Development