Abstract
The Cumulative Ordinary Kriging (COK) interpolation method has been proposed for the spatial prediction of atmospheric radioactive fallout in any given region. COK is built on the Ordinary Kriging and Cumulative Semivariogram methods and combines all their advantages to achieve statistically significant results. It is verified in this paper the reliability of the results from COK with other well-known Modified Shepard’s Method (MSM), Inverse Distance Square (INDSQ), Polynomial Regression (PR), Natural Neighbour (NN), Radial Basis (RB), and Kriging Method interpolation methods. The model is tested in detail and in every possible way in two and three dimensions and applied to real-time Cs-134 and Cs-137 radioactive fallout data from the Chernobyl and Fukushima reactor accidents by combining both experimental and theoretical results. The results obtained from the applications for all interpolation methods are included in the supplementary materials section at the end of the article for the benefit of the readers. COK can also be used for spatial modelling of any particle at micro or macro scale. It can contribute significantly to environmental quality, ecological, and human health.
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Acknowledgements
Dr. Külahcı, one of the authors, attributes this article to the cherished memory of his first teachers, Muhammed Mazhar Ebci, Abdullâh Karaokur, and Mehmet Özbek. We would like to thank TUBITAK (Scientist Training Scholarship) and the Fırat University Scientific Research Project Unit for their support. Chernobyl radioactive fallout data in this study can be accessed from Le Roux et al. (2010) reference. Fukushima radioactive fallout data were taken from Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT) of Japan. In addition, both Chernobyl and Fukushima radioactive fallout data, tables in the main text were given. The authors also thank Dr. Seçil Niksarlıoğlu for his help in drawing some of the graphs given in the appendix to this article. Finally, we would like to thank the Editor Dr. Georg Steinhauser and the journal management for their excellent management and the referees for their very constructive and positive comments.
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The idea of the method proposed in this study belongs to Dr. Külahcı. The entire article was written by Dr. Külahcı. Dr. Şen gave the final form to the article and the article was read and approved by Dr. Külahcı and Dr. Şen in all its details. There are other persons who satisfied the criteria for authorship but are not listed. We further confirm that the order of authors listed in the manuscript has been approved by all of us.
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Külahcı, F., Şen, Z. Cumulative Ordinary Kriging interpolation model to forecast radioactive fallout, and its application to Chernobyl and Fukushima assessment: a new method and mini review. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 64298–64311 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21921-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21921-4