Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Impact of urban expansion on carbon storage under multi-scenario simulations in Wuhan, China

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Environmental Science and Pollution Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, which is the basis of the global carbon cycle, reflects the changes in the environment due to anthropogenic impacts. Rapid and effective assessment of the impact of urban expansion on carbon reserves is vital for the sustainable development of urban ecosystems. Previous studies on future scenario simulations lacked research regarding the driving factors of changes in carbon storages within urban expansion, and the economic value accounting for changes in carbon storages. Therefore, this study examined Wuhan, China, and explored the latent effects of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage by combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Based on different socioeconomic strategies, we developed three future scenarios, including Baseline Scenario (BS), Cropland Protection Scenario (CP) and Ecological protection Scenario (EP), to predict the urban built-up land use change from 2015 to 2035 in Wuhan and discussed the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion. The result shows that (1) Wuhan’s urban built-up land area expanded 2.67 times between 1980 and 2015, which is approximately 685.17 km2 and is expected to continuously expand to 1349–1945.01 km2 by 2035. (2) Urban expansion in Wuhan has caused carbon storage loss by 5.12 × 106 t during 1980–2015 and will lead to carbon storage loss by 6.15 × 106 t, 4.7 × 106 t and 4.05 × 106 t under BS, CP, and EP scenarios from 2015 to 2035, accounting for 85.42%, 81.74%, and 78.79% of the total carbon loss, respectively. (3) The occupation of cropland by urban expansion is closely related to the road system expansion, which is the main driver of carbon storage reduction from 2015 to 2035. (4) We expect that by 2035, the districts facing carbon loss caused by the growth of urban built-up land will expand outward around secondary roads, and the scale of outward expansion under various scenarios will be ranked as BS > CP > EP. In combination, the InVEST and the PLUS model can assess the impact of urban expansion on carbon storage more efficiently and is conducive to carrying out urban planning and promoting a dynamic balance between urban economic development and human well-being.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The data used in the current study will be available from the corresponding author upon request via e-mail.

References

  • An Y, Zhang Q (2016) Impact of rapid urbanization on temporal and spatial variation of Shanghai vegetation and soil carbon storage. Environ Sci Manage 41(08):152–155+170

  • Assessment M (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: Synthesis Ecosyst 1–100

  • Baumann M, Gasparri N, Piquer-Rodríguez M, Gavier-Pizarro G, Griffiths P, Hostert P, Kuemmerle T (2016) Carbon emissions from agricultural expansion and intensification in the Chaco. Glob Change Biol 23

  • Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2008) Managing forests for climate change mitigation. Sci 320(5882):1456–1457

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen W, Chi G (2022) Urbanization and ecosystem services: the multi-scale spatial spillover effects and spatial variations. Land Use Pol 114:105964

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen YM, Li X, Liu XP, Ai B (2014) Modeling urban land-use dynamics in a fast developing city using the modified logistic cellular automaton with a patch-based simulation strategy. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 28(2):234–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen W, Zhao H, Li J, Zhu L, Wang Z, Zeng J (2019) Land use transitions and the associated impacts on ecosystem services in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China based on the geo-informatic Tupu method. Sci Total Environ 701:134690

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chen W, Chi G, Li J (2020) Ecosystem services and their driving forces in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 17:3717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Yue WZ, Liu X, Zhang LL, Chen YA (2021) Multi-scenario simulation for the consequence of urban expansion on carbon storage: a comparative study in Central Asian Republics. Land 10

  • Churkina G, Brown DG, Keoleian G (2010) Carbon stored in human settlements: the conterminous United States. Glob Change Biol 16:135–143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen J (1960) A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educ Psychol Meas 20(1):37–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delphin S, Escobedo FJ, Abd-Elrahman A, Cropper WP (2016) Urbanization as a land use change driver of forest ecosystem services. Land Use Pol 54:188–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng Y, Yao S, Hou M, Zhang T, Lu Y, Gong Z, Wang Y (2020) Assessing the effects of the green for grain program on ecosystem carbon storage service by linking the InVEST and FLUS models: a case study of Zichang county in hilly and gully region of Loess Plateau. J Nat Resour 35(4):826–844

    Google Scholar 

  • Dobbs C, Hernandez-Moreno A, Reyes-Paecke S, Miranda MD (2018) Exploring temporal dynamics of urban ecosystem services in Latin America: the case of Bogota (Colombia) and Santiago (Chile). Ecol Indic 85:1068–1080

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dorendorf J, Eschenbach A, Schmidt K, Jensen K (2015) Both tree and soil carbon need to be quantified for carbon assessments of cities. Urban for Urban Green 14:447–455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eigenbrod F, Bell VA, Davies HN, Heinemeyer A, Armsworth PR, Gaston KJ (2011) The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services. Proc R Soc B-Biol Sci 278:3201–3208

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gao J, Wang L (2019) Embedding spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage into urban agglomeration ecosystem management—a case study of the Yangtze River Delta, China. J Clean Prod 237:117764

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goh CS, Wicke B, Potter L, Faaij A, Zoomers A, Junginger M (2017) Exploring under-utilised low carbon land resources from multiple perspectives: case studies on regencies in Kalimantan. Land Use Pol 60:150–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He C, Zhang D, Huang Q, Zhao Y (2016) Assessing the potential impacts of urban expansion on regional carbon storage by linking the LUSD-urban and InVEST models. Environ Modell Software 75:44–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He X (2004) An empirical analysis of urbanization process in Wuhan city. J Zhongnan Univ Econ Law 2004(05)56–60+142–143

  • Houghton R, House J, Pongratz J, Werf G, Defries R, Hansen M, Le Quéré C, Ramankutty N (2012) Chapter G2 Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change. Biogeosciences 9:5125–5142

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ke XL, Tang LP (2019) Impact of cascading processes of urban expansion and cropland reclamation on the ecosystem of a carbon storage service in Hubei Province, China. Acta Ecol Sin 39(02):672–683

    Google Scholar 

  • Lahiji RN, Dinan NM, Liaghati H, Ghaffarzadeh H, Vafaeinejad A (2020) Scenario-based estimation of catchment carbon storage: linking multi-objective land allocation with InVEST model in a mixed agriculture-forest landscape. Front Earth Sci 14(3):637–646

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Gong J, Guldmann J-M, Li S, Zhu J (2020a) Carbon dynamics in the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1990 to 2030 using landsat land use/cover change data. Remote Sens 12(3):528

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li W, Lan Z, Chen D, Zheng Z (2020b) Multi-scenario simulation of land use and its spatial-temporal response to ecological risk in Guangzhou city. Bull Soil Water Conserv 40 (04), 204–210+227+202

  • Li J, Zhang C, Zhu S (2021a) Relative contributions of climate and land-use change to ecosystem services in arid inland basins. J Clean Prod 298, 126844.

  • Li XY, Suoerdahan G, Shi ZY, Xing ZH, Ren YX, Yang R (2021b) Spatial-temporal impacts of urban sprawl on ecosystem services: implications for urban planning in the process of rapid urbanization. Land 10

  • Liang X, Liu X, Li D, Zhao H, Chen G (2018) Urban growth simulation by incorporating planning policies into a CA-based future land-use simulation model. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 32(11–12):2294–2316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang YJ, Hashimoto S, Liu LJ (2021b) Integrated assessment of land-use/land-cover dynamics on carbon storage services in the Loess Plateau of China from 1995 to 2050. Ecol Indic 120:14

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liang X, Guan Q, Clarke KC, Liu S, Wang B, Yao Y (2021a) Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: A case study in Wuhan, China. Comput Environ Urban Syst 85

  • Liu JY, Kuang W, Zhang Z, Xu X, Qin YW, Ning J, Zhou W, Zhang S, Li R, Yan C, Wu SX, History X, Jiang S, Yu D, Pan X, Chi WF (2014) Spatiotemporal characteristics, patterns, and causes of land-use changes in China since the late 1980s. J Geogr Sci 24(02):195–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Liang X, Li X, Xu X, Ou J, Chen Y, Li S, Wang S, Pei F (2017) A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects. Landscape Urban Plann 168:94–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Wang S, Wu P, Feng K, Hubacek K, Li X, Sun L (2019) Impacts of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage in China. Environ Sci Technol 53(12):6834–6844

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lu R, Huang HK, Left T, Xiao S, Zhao X, Zhang X (2009) Land use scenarios simulation based on CLUE-S and Markov composite model: a case study of Taihu Lake Rim in Jiangsu Province. Sci Geogr Sin 29(04):577–581

    Google Scholar 

  • Lyu R, Mi L, Zhang J, Xu M, Li J (2019) Modeling the effects of urban expansion on regional carbon storage by coupling SLEUTH-3r model and InVEST model. Ecol Res 34

  • Maanan M, Karim M, Kacem HA, Ajrhough S, Rueff H, Snoussi M, Rhinane H (2019) Modelling the potential impacts of land use/cover change on terrestrial carbon stocks in north-west Morocco. Int J Sustain Dev World Ecol 26(6):560–570

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mascarenhas A, Haase D, Ramon TB, Santos R (2019) Pathways of demographic and urban development and their effects on land take and ecosystem services: The case of Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal. Land Use Pol 82:181–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meentemeyer RK, Tang W, Dorning MA, Vogler JB, Shoemaker DA (2013) FUTURES: Multilevel simulations of emerging urban–rural landscape structure using a stochastic patch-growing algorithm. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 103 (4).

  • Meineke E, Youngsteadt E, Dunn RR, Frank SD (2016) Urban warming reduces aboveground carbon storage. Proc R Soc B-Biol Sci 283

  • Pontius RG, Millones M (2011) Death to Kappa: birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment. Int J Remote Sens 32(15):4407–4429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pontius RG, Boersma W, Castella JC, Clarke K, de Nijs T, Dietzel C, Duan Z, Fotsing E, Goldstein N, Kok K, Koomen E, Lippitt CD, McConnell W, Sood AM, Pijanowski B, Pithadia S, Sweeney S, Trung TN, Veldkamp AT, Verburg PH (2008) Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change. Ann Reg Sci 42(1):11–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pratama AP, Yudhistira MH, Koomen E (2022) Highway expansion and urban sprawl in the Jakarta Metropolitan Area. Land Use Policy 112

  • Privitera R, Palermo V, Martinico F, Fichera A, La Rosa D (2018) Towards lower carbon cities: urban morphology contribution in climate change adaptation strategies. Eur Plan Stud 26:812–837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quay P, Tilbrook B (1992) Oceanic uptake of fossil fuel CO2: Carbon-13 Evidence. Sci 256:74–79

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ren Y, Yan J, Wei XH, Wang YJ, Yang YS, Hua LH, Xiong YZ, Niu X, Song XD (2012) Effects of rapid urban sprawl on urban forest carbon stocks: Integrating remotely sensed, GIS and forest inventory data. J Environ Manage 113:447–455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rijal S (2019) Effects of land use and land cover change on ecosystem services in the Koshi River Basin, Eastern Nepal. Ecosyst Serv 38

  • Rocky Mountain Institute (2018) Analyzing carbon emissions peaking pathway of the industrial sector in Wuhan. America

  • Sadat M, Zoghi M, Malekmohammadi B (2020) Spatiotemporal modeling of urban land cover changes and carbon storage ecosystem services: case study in Qaem Shahr County. Iran Environ Dev Sustain 22(8):8135–8158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sallustio L, Quatrini V, Geneletti D, Corona P, Marchetti M (2015) Assessing land take by urban development and its impact on carbon storage: findings from two case studies in Italy. Environ Impact Assess Rev 54:80–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharp R, Tallis HT, Ricketts T, Guerry AD, Wood, SA, Chapin-Kramer RNE, Ennaanay D, Wolny S, Olwero N, Vigerstol K, Pennington DMG, Aukema J, Foster J, Forrest J, Cameron D, Arkema K, Lonsdorf E, Kennedy C, Verutes G, Kim CK, Guannel G, Papenfus M, Toft J, Marsik M, Bernhardt J, Griffin R, Gowinski K, Chaumont N, Perelman A, Lacayo M, Mandle L, Hamel P, Vogl AL, Rogers L, Bierbower W (2015) InVEST 3.2.0 user's guide. The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, University of Minnesota, The Nature Conservancy, and World Wildlife Fund

  • Sohl TL, Claggett PR (2013) Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers. J Environ Manage 129(nov.15):235–243

  • Stern N (2008) The economics of climate change: the stern review. Amer Econ Rev 98:1–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stuiver M (1978) Atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon reservoir changes. Sci 199:253–258

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sun X, Lu Z, Li F, Crittenden J (2018) Analyzing spatio-temporal changes and trade-offs to support the supply of multiple ecosystem services in Beijing, China. Ecol Indic 94(nov):117–129.

  • Tang R, Peng K (2018) Impact of land use change on regional land carbon storage: a review. Jiangsu Agric Sci 46(19):5–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Tian L, Ye Q, Zhen Z (2019) A new assessment model of social cost of carbon and its situation analysis in China. J Clean Prod 211:1434–1443

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang JZ, Zhang Q, Gou TJ, Mo JB, Wang ZF, Gao M (2018) Spatial-temporal changes of urban areas and terrestrial carbon storage in the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Ecol Indic 95:343–352

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Ma B, Li D, Chen K, Yao HS (2020) Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecological space in Hubei Province based on FLUS model. J Nat Resour 35(01):230–242

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu P, Liu X, Li X, Chen Y (2016) Evaluation of the impact of urban expansion on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystem based on InVEST model and Cellular Automata in Guangdong Province, China. Geogr Geo-Inf Sci 32(05):22–28+36+22

  • Yan JT, Wang J, Lu S, Zeng H (2017) Impacts of rapid urbanization on carbon dynamics of urban ecosystems in Shenzhen. Ecol Environ Sci 26(04):553–560

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang J, Gong J, Tang W, Liu C (2020) Patch-based cellular automata model of urban growth simulation: Integrating feedback between quantitative composition and spatial configuration. Comput Environ Urban Syst 79:101402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang H, Huang J, Liu D (2020) Linking climate change and socioeconomic development to urban land use simulation: Analysis of their concurrent effects on carbon storage. Appl Geogr 115:102135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng J, Chen T, Yao X, Chen W (2020) Do protected areas improve ecosystem services? A case study of Hoh Xil Nature Reserve in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Remote Sens 12(3)

  • Zhang F, Deng X, Xie L, Xu N (2021) China’s energy-related carbon emissions projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways. Resour Conserv Recycl 168:105456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zheng H, Wang L, Peng W, Zhang C, Daily GC (2019) Realizing the values of natural capital for inclusive, sustainable development: Informing China’s new ecological development strategy. Proc Natl Acad Sci 116(17):8623–8628

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu W, Zhang J, Cui Y, Zheng H, Zhu L (2019) Assessment of territorial ecosystem carbon storage based on land use change scenario: a case study in Qihe River Basin. Acta Geogr Sin 74(03):446–459

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are very grateful to the many people involved in the data collection for this article and review of this work.

Funding

The research is sponsored in part by grants from the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42001187, NO.42001231, and NO.41701629). The project was also supported by State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (2021-KF-03).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Zhuo Wang, Jie Zeng & Wanxu Chen

  2. Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environmental System Simulation, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Zhuo Wang, Jie Zeng & Wanxu Chen

  3. Key Labs of Law Evaluation of Ministry of Natural Resources of China, 388 Lumo Road, Hongshan District, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China

    Jie Zeng & Wanxu Chen

  4. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Jie Zeng & Wanxu Chen

Authors
  1. Zhuo Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jie Zeng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wanxu Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Jie Zeng and Zhuo Wang: methodology, writing—original draft, resources. Jie Zeng and Wanxu Chen: conceptualization, supervision. Jie Zeng and Wanxu Chen: writing—review and editing. Zhuo Wang: software, data curation.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jie Zeng.

Ethics declarations

Ethical approval

All ethical practices have been followed in relation to the data analysis, writing, and publication of this research article.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent to publish

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Marcus Schulz

Publisher's note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 5 Corresponding table of land use classification between this study and the original data
Full size table
Table 6 Driving factors data used in the PLUS model
Full size table
Table 7 Carbon density of various land use types in Wuhan (t/ha)
Full size table
Table 8 Land use types transformed into urban built-up land during 1980–2035 in Wuhan
Full size table
Table 9 Urban built-up land transformed into other land use types during 1980–2035 in Wuhan
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, Z., Zeng, J. & Chen, W. Impact of urban expansion on carbon storage under multi-scenario simulations in Wuhan, China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 45507–45526 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19146-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19146-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation