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Carbon emissions and electricity generation modeling in Saudi Arabia

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Abstract

Fossil fuel electricity generation in Saudi Arabia increased greatly from 1980 to 2017. This paper aims to quantify the electricity generation effect on the environmental quality of Saudi Arabia and explore the role of energy-efficient technological innovation. A structural time series model (STSM) to estimate long-run elasticities and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) is employed. The results showed that variables (GDP, electricity generation, and population) have a significant effect on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Also, the underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) showed an upward slope for the entire period, which suggests that over the study time there is no improvement in energy efficiency. In decomposing the factors for carbon emissions growth in Saudi Arabia, the findings of applying additive LMDI analysis showed a 1377.56 million tonne (MT) increase in CO2 emissions from the three factors between 1980 and 2017 in the country. The results of additive decomposition showed that the primary factor that drives the carbon emissions growth in Saudi Arabia was the structure effect. Saudi Arabian policymakers could make more informed decisions regarding electricity generation by focusing on increasing energy efficiency and demanding strict environmental regulations to contribute to sustainable economic growth.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The author thanks the Deanship of Scientific Research and RSSU at King Saud University for their technical support.

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  1. Economics Department, College of Applied Studies and Community Service, King Saud University, P.O. Box 22459, Riyadh, 11495, Saudi Arabia

    Reema Ghazi Alajmi

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  1. Reema Ghazi Alajmi
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Alajmi, R.G. Carbon emissions and electricity generation modeling in Saudi Arabia. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 23169–23179 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17354-0

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