Abstract
This study empirically examines the impact of climate change on cereal production in selected lower-middle-income countries with a balanced panel dataset spanning 1971–2016. The study uses average annual temperature and rainfall to measure climate change. Besides this, CO2 emissions, cultivated land under cereal production, and rural population are used as the control variables. Second-generation unit root tests, i.e., CIPS and CADF, are used to test the stationarity of the variables. Feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) models are used to achieve the objective. Pedroni cointegration test confirms the presence of cointegration between cereal production and climate change variables. The findings show that a rise in the temperature reduces cereal production in lower-middle-income countries. In contrast, rainfall and CO2 emissions have a positive effect on cereal production. For robustness purpose, the Driscoll-Kraay standard regression and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models have also found similar results. Dumitrescu-Hurlin test has found the bidirectional causality of cereal production with temperature and CO2 emissions. Also, unidirectional causality is running from rainfall and rural population to cereal production. The adverse effects of temperature on cereal production are likely to pose severe implications for food security. The paper recommends that governments of the sample countries should research and develop heat-resistant varieties of cereal crops to cope with the adverse effects of temperature on cereal production and ensure food security.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adams RM, Hurd BH, Lenhart S, Leary N (1998) Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Clim Res 11(1):19–30. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr011019
Agovino M, Casaccia M, Ciommi M, Ferrara M, Marchesano K (2019) Agriculture, climate change and sustainability: the case of EU-28. Ecol Indic 105:525–543. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.04.064
Ahmad M, Jiang P, Majeed A, Raza MY (2020) Does financial development and foreign direct investment improve environmental quality? Evidence from belt and road countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:23586–23601. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08748-7
Ahsan F, Chandio AA, Fang W (2020) Climate change impacts on cereal crops production in Pakistan. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 12:257–269. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2019-0020
Akram N (2012) Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies? Asia-Pacific Development Journal 19(2):1–18 Retrieved from http://www.unescap.org/pdd/publications/index_apdj.asp%5Cn, http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ecn&AN=1368183&site=ehost-live
Alam GM (2017) Livelihood cycle and vulnerability of rural households to climate change and hazards in Bangladesh. Environ Manag 59(5):777–791. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-017-0826-3
Ali A, Erenstein O (2017) Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Clim Risk Manag 16:183–194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.12.001
Ali S, Liu Y, Ishaq M, Shah T, Ilyas A, Din IU (2017) Climate change and its impact on the yield of major food crops: evidence from Pakistan. Foods 6(6):39. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods6060039
Ali F, Huang S, Cheo R (2020) Climatic impacts on basic human needs in the United States of America: a panel data analysis. Sustainability 12(4):1508. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041508
Amin M, Zhang J, Yang M (2015) Effects of climate change on the yield and cropping area of major food crops: a case of Bangladesh. Sustainability 7(1):898–915
Arora NK (2019) Impact of climate change on agriculture production and its sustainable solutions. Environmental Sustainability 2:95–96. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42398-019-00078-w
Aryal JP, Sapkota TB, Khurana R, Khatri-Chhetri A, Jat ML (2019) Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems. Environ Dev Sustain 21:1–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-019-00414-4
Attari MIJ, Hussain M, Javid AY (2016) Carbon emissions and industrial growth: an ARDL analysis for Pakistan. International Journal of Energy Sector Management 10:642–658. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-04-2014-0002
Attiaoui I, Boufateh T (2019) Impacts of climate change on cereal farming in Tunisia: a panel ARDL–PMG approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26(13):13334–13345. https://doi.org/10.3390/su7010898
Baig IA, Ahmed F, Salam MA, Khan SM (2020) An assessment of climate change and crop productivity in India: a multivariate cointegration framework. TEST Engineering & Management 83:3438–3452
Baloch MA, Zhang J, Iqbal K, Iqbal Z (2019) The effect of financial development on ecological footprint in BRI countries: evidence from panel data estimation. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26(6):6199–6208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3992-9
Barnwal P, Kotani K (2013) Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: an application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh, India. Ecol Econ 87:95–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.11.024
Baum CF (2000). XTTEST3: Stata module to compute modified Wald statistic for groupwise heteroskedasticity. Statistical Software Components, Boston College Department of Economics
Baum CF (2001) Residual diagnostics for cross-section time series regression models. Stata J 1(1):101–104
Bhardwaj A, Misra V, Mishra A, Wootten A, Boyles R, Bowden JH, Terando AJ (2018) Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Clim Chang 147(1-2):133–147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2130-x
Bosello F, Zhang J (2005). Assessing climate change impacts: agriculture. CIP–Climate Impacts and Policy DivisionWorking Paper 02. Available at: http://www.eclac.cl/ilpes/noticias/paginas/1/35691/Bosello_assesingclimatechangeimpacts.pdf.
Brown C, Meeks R, Ghile Y, Hunu K (2010). An empirical analysis of the effects of climate variables on national level economic growth. World Bank’s World Development Report 2010: Policy Research Working Paper 5357
Bryan E, Deressa TT, Gbetibouo GA, Ringler C (2009) Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environ Sci Pol 12(4):413–426. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.002
Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Rehman A, Rauf A (2020a) Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: an empirical evidence from China. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 12:201–221. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2019-0026
Chandio AA, Ozturk I, Akram W, Ahmad F, Mirani AA (2020b) Empirical analysis of climate change factors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07739-y
Chuang Y (2019) Climate variability, rainfall shocks, and farmers’ income diversification in India. Econ Lett 174:55–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.10.015
Climate Change Knowledge Portal (2019) World Bank Group. Retrieved from https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data
Dasgupta S (2013). Impact of climate change on crop yields with implications for food security and poverty alleviation, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, 97–107. Potsdam, Germany
Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA (2012). Climate shocks and economic growth: evidence from the last half century, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(3), 66ß95. 10.1109/LPT.2009.2020494
Demirhan H (2020) Impact of increasing temperature anomalies and carbon dioxide emissions on wheat production. Sci Total Environ 741:139616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139616
Dogan HG (2018) Nexus of agriculture, gdp, population and climate change: case of some eurasian countries and Turkey. Appl Ecol Environ Res 16(5):6963–6976. https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1605_69636976
Dogan B, Madaleno M, Tiwari AK, Hammoudeh S (2020) Impacts of export quality on environmental degradation: does income matter? Environ Sci Pollut Res 27:13735–13772. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07371-5
Driscoll JC, Kraay AC (1998) Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Rev Econ Stat 80(4):549–560. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
Dumrul Y, Kilicarslan Z (2017) Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Turkey. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance 6(4):336–347. https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2017.766
Ebi KL, Ziska LH (2018) Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide: anticipated negative effects on food quality. PLoS Med 15(7):e1002600. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002600
Frees EW (1995) Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data. J Econ 69(2):393–414. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01658-M
Friedman M (1937) The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality implicit in the analysis of variance. J Am Stat Assoc 32(200):675–701
Gujarati D, Porter DC (2004). Basic econometrics, 2004. Editura McGraw-Hill, 858.
Guntukula R (2020) Assessing the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture: evidence from major crop yields. J Public Aff 20(1):e2040. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2040
Ha TTV, Fan H, Shuang L (2020) Climate change impact assessment on Northeast China’s grain production. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11602-5
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345
Hatfield JL, Prueger JH (2015) Temperature extremes: effect on plant growth and development. Weather and Climate Extremes 10:4–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001
Hausman JA (1978) Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica 46(46):1251–1271 Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1913827%0A, http://about.jstor.org/terms
Janjua PZ, Samad G, Khan N (2014) Climate change and wheat production in Pakistan: an autoregressive distributed lag approach. NJAS-Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 68:13–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2013.11.002
Kao C, Chiang MH (2001). On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data. In Nonstationary panels, panel cointegration, and dynamic panels. Emerald Group Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15007-8
Kappa K (2020) Do the vegetable exports lead to economic growth? An empirical evidence in selected SAARC economies. J Public Aff:e2484. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2484
Kaye JP, Quemada M (2017) Using cover crops to mitigate and adapt to climate change. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 37(1):4. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-016-0410-x
Khan MTI, Yaseen MR, Ali Q (2019a) Nexus between financial development, tourism, renewable energy, and greenhouse gas emission in high-income countries: a continent-wise analysis. Energy Econ 83:293–310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.07.018
Khan SAR, Jian C, Zhang Y, Golpîra H, Kumar A, Sharif A (2019b) Environmental, social and economic growth indicators spur logistics performance: from the perspective of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries. J Clean Prod 214:1011–1023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.322
Khan A, Chenggang Y, Bano S, Hussain J (2020) The empirical relationship between environmental degradation, economic growth, and social well-being in Belt and Road Initiative countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27(24):30800–30814. https://doi.org/10.1007/2Fs11356-020-09058-8
Kogo BK, Kumar L, Koech R (2020) Climate change and variability in Kenya: a review of impacts on agriculture and food security. Environ Dev Sustain 23:23–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00589-1
Kumar P, Sahu NC, Ansari MA (2021) Export potential of climate smart goods in India: evidence from the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. Int Trade J 35:1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2021.1890652
Liu H, Fan J, Zhou K, Wang Q (2019) Exploring regional differences in the impact of high energy-intensive industries on CO 2 emissions: evidence from a panel analysis in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26(25):26229–26241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05865-w
Loum A, Fogarassy C (2015) The effects of climate change on cereals yield of production and food security in Gambia. Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce - APSTRACT 9(4):83–92. https://doi.org/10.19041/APSTRACT/2015/4/11
Maddala GS, Lahiri K (2006) Introduction to Econometrics, 4th edn. Wiley, New York
Maddison D (2007). The perception of and adaptation to climate change in Africa. The World Bank.
Masters G, Baker P, Flood J (2010) Climate change and agricultural commodities. CABI Work Pap 2:1–38
Matthews RB, Kropff MJ, Horie T, Bachelet D (1997) Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation. Agric Syst 54(3):399–425. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-521X(95)00060-I
Mishra D, Sahu NC (2014) Economic impact of climate change on agriculture sector of Coastal Odisha. APCBEE Procedia 10:241–245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apcbee.2014.10.046
Nelson GC, Rosegrant MW, Koo J, Robertson R, Sulser T, Zhu T, ... Lee D (2009) Climate change: impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation (Vol. 21). Intl Food Policy Res Inst.
Onour IA (2019) Effect of carbon dioxide concentration on cereal yield in Sudan. Management and Economics Research Journal 5(S3):7596. https://doi.org/10.18639/MERJ.2019.740622
Parks RW (1967) Efficient estimation of a system of regression equations when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated. J Am Stat Assoc 62(318):500–509. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1967
Pedroni P (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric theory, 597-625. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3533533
Pesaran HM (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. University of Cambridge, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435
Pesaran MH (2007) A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. J Appl Econ 22(2):265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
Praveen B, Sharma P (2019a) A review of literature on climate change and its impacts on agriculture productivity. J Public Aff 19(4):e1960. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1960
Praveen B, Sharma P (2019b) Climate Change and its impacts on Indian agriculture: an Econometric analysis. J Public Aff 20(1):e1972. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1972
Quandt A, Kimathi YA (2017) Perceptions of the effects of floods and droughts on livelihoods: lessons from arid Kenya. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 9:337–351. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2014-0132
Rahim S, Puay TG (2017) The impact of climate on economic growth in Malaysia. Journal of Advanced Research in Business and Management Studies 6(2):108–119
Reed WR, Ye H (2011) Which panel data estimator should I use? Appl Econ 43(8):985–1000. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840802600087
Sarker MAR, Alam K, Gow J (2014) Assessing the effects of climate change on rice yields: an econometric investigation using Bangladeshi panel data. Economic Analysis and Policy 10:405–416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2014.11.004
Shankar S, Shikha (2017). Impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security. In Lakahan, R; Mondal, S (Ed.), Biotechnology for Sustainable Agriculture: Emerging Approaches and Strategies. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-812160-3.00007-6
Simpson D (2012) Knowledge resources as a mediator of the relationship between recycling pressures and environmental performance. J Clean Prod 22(1):32–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2011.09.025
Singh NP, Singh S, Anand B, Ranjith PC (2019) Assessing the impact of climate change on crop yields in Gangetic Plains Region, India. Journal of Agrometeorology 21(4):452–461
Susanto J, Zheng X, Liu Y, Wang C (2020) The impacts of climate variables and climate-related extreme events on island country’s tourism: evidence from Indonesia. J Clean Prod 276:124204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124204
Warsame AA, Sheik-Ali IA, Ali AO, Sarkodie SA (2021) Climate change and crop production nexus in Somalia: an empirical evidence from ARDL technique. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-11739-3
Wooldridge JM (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (Second). The MIT Press.
World Data Bank (2019) World development indicators. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Zaied YB, Zouabi O (2015). Climate change impacts on agriculture: a panel cointegration approach and application to Tunisia. Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64711/1/MPRA_paper_64711.pdf
Zakaria M, Jun W, Khan MF (2019) Impact of financial development on agricultural productivity in South Asia. Agricultural Economics 65(5):232–239. https://doi.org/10.17221/199/2018-AGRICECON
Zhai S, Song G, Qin Y, Ye X, Lee J (2017) Modeling the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield in inland China: an autoregressive distributed lag approach. PLoS One 12(9):e0184474. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184474
Zhao X, Fitzgerald M (2013) Climate change: implications for the yield of edible rice. PLoS One 8(6):e66218. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0066218
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Editors and Reviewers for their constructive comments to improve the quality of the manuscript.
Availability of data and materials
Data will be made available upon request
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All the four authors have contributed equally. Pushp Kumar and Siddharth has made the analysis part while Naresh Chandra Sahu compile introduction and literature review and the overall formatting of the paper has been done by Mohd Arshad Ansari. All authors have read and approved the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable
Consent for publication
Not applicable
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kumar, P., Sahu, N.C., Kumar, S. et al. Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 51597–51611 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14373-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14373-9