Abstract
Addressing the geographical relocation of the pollution-intensive gray side of low-carbon green production, our study analyzes potential determinants of green and gray growth performance of industrialized/developed countries (IDCs) and industrializing/emerging economies (IEEs) over the 1996–2015 period. We define green growth by low-carbon output, while we link gray growth to comparative advantages of pollution havens. Green and gray growth models include such predictors as domestic income and foreign direct investment (FDI) together with composite indices for globalization, environmental policy stringency (EPS), industrialization, and control of corruption. Considering non-stationarity, cross-section dependency, endogeneity, and heterogeneity concerns, we employ bootstrap and residual-based cointegration analyses followed by long-run estimations using the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators and causality examination through Dumitrescu-Hurlin and Emirmahmutoglu-Kose tests. The key findings of the study are as follows: (i) income is positively associated with green growth for both IEEs and IDCs, whereas the income-gray growth nexus is negative for IEEs. (ii) Although inward FDI stocks are positively related to green and gray growth of IEEs and outward FDI stocks are negatively associated with green and gray growth of IDCs, these relationships are mediated by EPS. (iii) Globalization encourages both green and gray growth for IDCs. (iv) Even though EPS inhibits green growth and encourage gray growth in IEEs, these direct effects widely depend on the indirect effects of control of corruption. (v) IEEs’ higher gray growth performance is substantially explained by their increased industrial competitiveness, whereas the link is negative for IDCs. (vi) Control of corruption fosters both green and gray growth in IEEs. Overall, “growing gray” does not necessarily mean “not growing green” and vice versa. Globally, the low-carbon benefits of greening countries may be counterbalanced by the environmental costs of graying economies. From a policy perspective, IEEs need to reinforce environmental policies by green efficiency, green industrialization, and anti-corruption plans to decouple economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions.
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19 March 2021
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13479-4
Notes
Despite the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO 2019) currently defines Russia as an industrialized country, we included Russia in the IEEs group since the variance analysis based on comparisons of mean differences of examined variables revealed that Russia was similar to IEEs rather than IDCs for the 1996–2015 period. These sampled IEEs are sometimes grouped as BRIICST countries (e.g., Wolde-Rufael and Weldemeskel 2020) in the literature.
On the unclear evidence about the PHH, Mani and Wheeler (1998) argued that pollution havens were as transient as low-wage havens.
A practical way to capture the indirect impacts of EPS and control of corruption was including interaction terms in the model. However, this practical advantage would produce a serious multicollinearity problem.
Additionally, we control the models of all three panels for multicollinearity problem using the variance inflation factor values and found them less than 3, far below the commonly used rule of 10 (O’brien 2007). Thus, multicollinearity is not a serious concern in our case.
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Acknowledgements
An earlier version of this study was presented at the International Conference on Economics, Energy, and Environment (ICEEE) on 25–27 June 2020 in Cappadocia, Nevsehir, Turkey. The authors thank conference participants for their valuable comments and suggestions that improved the manuscript. The authors are grateful to the journal’s editor and four anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions improved the study.
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The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available in the [Google-Drive] repository [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fr2_STNAC4-RFpdBh23k-64p9rJexLk0/view?usp=sharing], and they are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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MD designed the research method, collected data, and conducted analyses of the manuscript. OD reviewed the literature and specified the research gap and study motivation. Both authors equally contributed to the discussion of the findings and wrote the whole manuscript.
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Demiral, M., Demiral, O. Where is the gray side of green growth? Theoretical insights, policy directions, and evidence from a multidimensional approach. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 63905–63930 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13127-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13127-x
Keywords
- Green growth,
- Gray growth,
- Environmental Kuznets curve,
- Pollution haven hypothesis,
- Environmental policy stringency,
- Industrialization,
- Control of corruption