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A model for predicting dropouts from physical activity interventions in leisure centres

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Abstract

Purpose

Leisure centres are one of the main places where people exercise. This study investigated the behaviour of these users for a year to analyse the plausible difference in behaviour between users dropping out and those who do not. In addition, it is also intended to identify the behavioural variables to establish the probability of dropping out from a leisure centre.

Methods

Monthly data related to the current behaviour of 14,522 adult members of three different leisure centres in Spain (one from Tudela, two from Zaragoza) were recorded from January to December of 2014 by the management software. A logistic regression model was implemented to predict dropping outs considering the different variables that explained the behaviour of the users (dropping out or not).

Results

Users who dropped out were characterised by being younger, with shorter memberships and lower uses of the facilities. The design of a predictive model with these variables helped to establish the probability of users leaving the centre obtaining a discriminatory power of 77% between those who dropped out and those that do not.

Conclusion

The results of this study will help to design better interventions aimed to avoid dropping out of physical activity programmes.

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Funding

This work received no funding from any grant or organization.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physical Education and Sports, Faculty of Sports Sciences and Physical Education, University of A Coruna, A Coruña, Spain

    Ivan Clavel San Emeterio & Eliseo Iglesias-Soler

  2. Physical Activity and Sport Sciences Department, IGOID Research Group, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain

    Jorge Garcia-Unanue & Leonor Gallardo

  3. Observatory of Healthy & Active Living of Spain Active Foundation, Centre for Sport Studies, King Juan Carlos University, Madrid, Spain

    Xian Mayo

Authors
  1. Ivan Clavel San Emeterio
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  2. Eliseo Iglesias-Soler
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  3. Jorge Garcia-Unanue
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  4. Leonor Gallardo
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  5. Xian Mayo
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ivan Clavel San Emeterio.

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Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest relating to the publication of this manuscript.

Ethical approval

Authorization for analyzing and publishing the data was granted by the owner company. The study was carried out conforming to the Declaration of Helsinki and Personal Data Protection Law (Regulation EU 2016/679).

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A written informed consent was obtained from the company that owned the data.

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Clavel San Emeterio, I., Iglesias-Soler, E., Garcia-Unanue, J. et al. A model for predicting dropouts from physical activity interventions in leisure centres. Sport Sci Health 16, 465–472 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11332-020-00626-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11332-020-00626-6

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