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An NDVI analysis of vegetation trends in an Andean watershed

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Abstract

We performed a Landsat 5-TM derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) analysis in a semi-arid watershed (2700 km2) in the Andes of southern Peru from 1985 to 2010. There, pastoralists rely on wetlands (bofedales) particularly during dry season months and in drought. We calculated annual dry season NDVI for 20 of the 26 years from 1985 to 2010 and used the mean to delineate wetlands in the watershed. To investigate the trends in NDVI, a multiple regression model with the covariates precipitation, temperature, Julian day, and year of image acquisition was performed on each cell (three million individual regressions). Results indicate there is a modest increase in NDVI for the majority of cells (81 %) in the watershed. Approximately 30 % of wetland areas display a decrease in NDVI. Dry season NDVI is moderately correlated with wet season precipitation (R 2 = 0.56, p < 0.05) but absent a trend in precipitation, NDVI trends are not explained by this variable. Changes in land management may result in more intensive use of wetlands, causing the decreasing vegetation trends in some locations.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Paul Barten, Brooke Thomas, and Thomas Leatherman for their comments and insights on how to improve the manuscript. Their support throughout the research process is greatly valued. This study was in part funded by a University of Massachusetts Amherst Dissertation Research Grant awarded to the first author.

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  1. Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA, 01003-9285, USA

    Meagan Mazzarino & John T. Finn

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  1. Meagan Mazzarino
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  2. John T. Finn
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Correspondence to Meagan Mazzarino.

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Figures S1–20

Predicteds versus Residuals Plots. Shows predicted NDVI on the X axis versus residual (observed NDVI − predicted NDVI) on the Y axis. A single observation is a light gray circle. Multiple points plotted on top of one another are increasingly darker (black ~10 observations). Density contours indicate where more than 20 points are overplotted. The center of the density contours indicates the approximate mode of both residuals and predicted NDVI. In these plots, residuals should average zero, and there should not be an obvious pattern. Predicted NDVIs less than 0 indicate unvegetated areas, while greater than zero indicate vegetation (PPTX 10062 kb)

Appendix

Appendix

See Fig. 8.

Fig. 8
figure 8figure 8

Boxplots of a observed NDVI values in the Nuñoa watershed for each year, b predicted NDVI values, and c residuals by year. Placeholders for the 6 years for which scenes were not analyzed are represented as bars at NDVI value of 0.3. Whiskers extend to the lowest (highest) datum within 1.5 IQR of the lower (upper) quartile

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Mazzarino, M., Finn, J.T. An NDVI analysis of vegetation trends in an Andean watershed. Wetlands Ecol Manage 24, 623–640 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-016-9492-0

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