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Daily Scale River Flow Forecasting Using Hybrid Gradient Boosting Model with Genetic Algorithm Optimization

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Abstract

Accurate and sustainable management of water resources is among the most important circumstances of basin and river engineering. In this study, a hybrid machine learning (ML) model was generated using CatBoost and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for significant impact on river flow prediction. The study was applied to Sakarya Basin, which is located in semi-arid climatic conditions in Turkey. The forecast performance of the models was observed by developing a day-step ahead forecast scenario with the data of Adatepe, Aktaş and Rüstümköy flow measurement stations (FMS). The daily flow data of the specified stations between 2002 and 2012 were used and the performance of the proposed model was tested by comparing with CatBoost, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and the classical estimation method, Linear Regression (LR). The study was also aimed to improve the predictive performance of genetic algorithms combined with the gradient boosting model (GA-CatBoost). The developed hybrid model outperformed the benchmarked models. The results showed that the developed model can be successfully applied in river flow forecasting.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the data source “General Directorate of Electrical Works Survey Administration”. In addition, this research was previously published as preprint, readers can refer to the published research (Kilinc et al. 2023).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, İstanbul Aydın University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Huseyin Cagan Kilinc

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran

    Iman Ahmadianfar

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, KTO Karatay University, Konya, 42020, Turkey

    Vahdettin Demir

  4. Faculty of Science, Agronomy Department, University 20 Août 1955 Skikda, Route El Hadaik, BP 26, Skikda, Algeria

    Salim Heddam

  5. Interdisciplinary Research Center for Membranes and Water Security, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals (KFUPM), Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

    Ahmed M. Al-Areeq, Sani I. Abba & Zaher Mundher Yaseen

  6. Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800, Penang, Malaysia

    Mou Leong Tan

  7. School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Mou Leong Tan

  8. Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, 721102, India

    Bijay Halder

  9. Information and Communication Technology Research Group, Scientific Research Center, Al-Ayen University, Thi-Qar, Iraq

    Haydar Abdulameer Marhoon

  10. College of Computer Sciences and Information Technology, University of Kerbala, Karbala, Iraq

    Haydar Abdulameer Marhoon

  11. Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia

    Zaher Mundher Yaseen

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  1. Huseyin Cagan Kilinc
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  9. Haydar Abdulameer Marhoon
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Contributions

Huseyin Cagan Kilinc: Conceptualization; Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation; Resources; Software. Iman Ahmadianfar: Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation. Vahdettin Demir: Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation. Salim Heddam: Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation. Ahmed M. Al-Areeq: Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation. Sani I. Abba: Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation. Mou Leong Tan: Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation. Bijay Halder: Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation. Haydar Abdulameer Marhoon: Data curation; Formal analysis; Methodology; Investigation; Visualization; Writing—original draft,—review & editing draft preparation. Zaher Mundher Yaseen: Supervision, Conceptualization; Formal analysis; Project administration; Investigation; Writing—review & editing.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Huseyin Cagan Kilinc or Zaher Mundher Yaseen.

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Kilinc, H.C., Ahmadianfar, I., Demir, V. et al. Daily Scale River Flow Forecasting Using Hybrid Gradient Boosting Model with Genetic Algorithm Optimization. Water Resour Manage 37, 3699–3714 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03522-z

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