Abstract
Streamflow is one of the most important elements of a water resources system and is key to understanding the conditions of water resources at different scales. Therefore, clarifying streamflow changes and the causes is important for water resources management under changing environments. The variability of streamflow and drivers is very complex in the spatial dimension, which is particularly evident in large scale regions. This study aims to develop a new attribution analysis method based on hydrological modeling that considers spatial contributions and driver interactions. A large-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established. The calibrated SWAT model provides detailed, high-resolution descriptions of small-scale processes that are numerically integrated to larger scales. Based on the distributed simulation under different scenarios, attribution analysis can be conducted at scales as small as the sub-basins can be divided. Results reveal that: (1) Streamflow of the entire Upper Yangtze River Basin was significantly reduced by -8.9 km3 per ten years during the study period. Streamflow changes exhibited different characteristics in space. This emphasizes the necessity of introducing spatial contributions into attribution analysis. (2) At the basin scale, the decrease in precipitation and wind speed, the increase in maximum temperature, and land use/ cover change (LUCC) all contribute to the decrease in streamflow. While the increase in minimum temperature and decrease in relative humidity have the effect of increasing streamflow. At the basin scale or smaller sub-basin scale, there are significant differences in the contributions of driving factors to streamflow changes. This has practical implications for water resources management in terms of refining attribution analysis and adopting targeted countermeasures.
Key Points
• Develops a new multi-routes-based attribution analysis method using large-scale hydrological modeling.
• Introduces spatial contributions into attribution analysis.
• Conducts a case study based on the proposed method using real-world data.
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Funding
This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC3002701), the Research Foundation of China Three Gorges Corporation (No. 0799251), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 52209032), and the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (Grant No. BK20200160).
National Key Research and Development Program of China,2022YFC3002701,Yinshan Xu,Research Foundation of China Three Gorges Corporation,0799251,Yinshan Xu,National Natural Science Foundation of China,52209032,Yu Zhang,Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China,BK20200160,Yu Zhang
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Conceptualization: YX, YC, YZ; Methodology: YX, YC, YR; Formal analysis and investigation: ZT, XY; Writing—original draft preparation: YX, YC, YR, YZ; Writing—review and editing: YX, YC, YR, YZ, ZT, XY; Funding acquisition: YX, YZ; Resources: YX, YC, YR; Supervision: YZ.
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Xu, Y., Chen, Y., Ren, Y. et al. Attribution of Streamflow Changes Considering Spatial Contributions and Driver Interactions Based on Hydrological Modeling. Water Resour Manage 37, 1859–1877 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03459-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03459-3