Abstract
Climate change and water diversions are putting the Great Salt Lake (GSL) at risk. Projections indicate a continued decrease in the GSL water surface elevation (WSE) would lead to several catastrophic consequences. An aspect of the GSL dynamics gaining importance, and not addressed in past studies, is how resilient the lake WSE will be to increasing diversions from contributing rivers, intensifying drought conditions, and more frequent hydrologic deficits caused by climate change. The objectives of the present study were to: (1) examine the impacts of historical drought and development on the GSL resilience and (2) determine future WSE resilience under a range of hydroclimate and development scenarios. The historical resilience was analyzed considering three periods with different development conditions: (1) less developed (1901–1950); (2) moderately developed (1951–2000); (3) highly developed (2001–2020). Furthermore, a range of hydroclimate and development conditions were introduced into a system dynamics-based water management model to simulate the future GSL WSE and corresponding resilience. The historical analysis showed a significant decline in resilience (45.4%) during the highly developed period compared with the moderately developed period. Future scenarios of climate change and development revealed that the mean GSL WSE for the 2021–2050 period may drop by 0.93 m, while the resilience reduces by 30%, and 38% using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios when compared to the less and medium developed historical periods respectively. This research provides insight for the State of Utah Department of Natural Resources and stakeholders to inform water management policies and GSL adaptive management strategies.
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Abbreviations
- A:
-
GSL water surface area (km2)
- BR:
-
Bear River
- BRB:
-
Bear River Bay
- C:
-
Dissolved-solids concentration (g/L)
- CMIP5:
-
Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5
- Drought Event 1:
-
Historical most severe drought event during the Apr 1959 – Mar 1969 period
- Drought Event 2:
-
Historical moderately severe drought event during the Aug 1989 – Apr 1992 period
- Drought Event 3:
-
Historical less severe drought event during Apr 2002 to Jul 2005 period
- E:
-
Evaporation over the GSL water body (km3/day)
- EAA:
-
Annual average evaporation (cm)
- EAI:
-
Annual average evaporation of Bear River Bird Refuge, Saltair, and Utah Lake at Lehi sites (cm)
- EMI:
-
Fraction of average monthly evaporation
- EOBRB:
-
Evaporation - Bear River Bay
- EOBRB-HD:
-
Evaporation - Bear River Bay- highly developed period
- EOBRB-MD:
-
Evaporation - Bear River Bay - medium developed period
- EOFB:
-
Evaporation - Farmington Bay
- EOFB-HD:
-
Evaporation - Farmington Bay - highly developed period
- EOFB-MD:
-
Evaporation - Farmington Bay - medium developed period
- EOS:
-
Evaporation - South Arm
- EOS-HD:
-
Evaporation- South Arm - highly developed period
- EOS-MD:
-
Evaporation- South Arm - medium developed period
- EON:
-
Evaporation - North Arm
- EON-HD:
-
Evaporation - North Arm - highly developed period
- EON-MD:
-
Evaporation - North Arm - medium developed period
- ET:
-
Evapotranspiration
- FAO:
-
Food and Agriculture Organization
- FB:
-
Farmington Bay
- GCM:
-
Global Climate Models
- GSL:
-
Great Salt Lake
- GSLAC:
-
Great Salt Lake Advisory Council
- GSLIM:
-
Great Salt Lake Integrated Model
- HD:
-
GSL basin highly developed period (2000 to 2020)
- JR:
-
Jordan River
- KC:
-
Crop coefficient
- LD:
-
GSL basin less developed period (1903 to 1949)
- MACA:
-
Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs
- MD:
-
GSL basisn moderately developed period (1950 to 1999)
- NA:
-
Gunnison Bay (North Arm)
- ρ:
-
Density of brine at any temperature (g/mL)
- P:
-
Precipitation directly over the GSL water body (km3/day)
- PAA:
-
Annual average precipitation (cm)
- PAASLC:
-
Average annual precipitation at Salt Lake City Airport from 1931 to 1973 (cm)
- PAAOGSF:
-
Average annual precipitation at Ogden Sugar Factory from 1931 to 1973 (cm)
- PAATOOL:
-
Average annual precipitation at Tooele from 1931 to 1973 (cm)
- PET:
-
Potential evapotranspiration of wetlands (km3/day)
- PIS:
-
Precipitation - South Arm
- PIS-HD:
-
Precipitation - South Arm - highly developed period
- PIS-MD:
-
Precipitation - South Arm - medium developed period
- PMSLC:
-
Monthly precipitation at Salt Lake City Airport (cm)
- PMOSF:
-
Monthly precipitation at Ogden Sugar Factory (cm)
- PMTOOL:
-
Monthly precipitation at Tooele (cm)
- PRT:
-
Average ratio index
- Q:
-
River basin runoff to GSL (km3/day)
- QIN:
-
Net inflow to GSL including all tributaries, precipitation, outflows from Salt Lake City Wastewater Treatment Plant (SLCWWTP), and groundwater (km3/day)
- QINR:
-
Net inflow to GSL from river basins after wetlands consumption (km3/day)
- QIN-HD:
-
Total Inflow - highly developed period
- QIN-MD:
-
Total Inflow - medium developed period
- Qo:
-
Net wetland flow rate to the GSL (km3/day)
- QO:
-
Net mean outflows from GSL including evaporation over all four bays, total Mineral extractions withdrawal, total west desert pump withdrawal, and total wetlands consumption (km3/day)
- QO-HD:
-
Total Outflow - highly developed period
- QO-MD:
-
Total Outflow - medium developed period
- QMP:
-
Net flow in mineral pond extraction and return flows (km3/day)
- QWDPS:
-
Net west desert pump station extraction and return flows (km3/day)
- RCP:
-
Representative Concentration Pathways
- SA:
-
Gilbert Bay (South Arm)
- SAS:
-
South Arm Inundated Area
- SABRB:
-
Bear River Bay Inundated Area
- SAFB:
-
Farmington Bay Inundated Area
- SAN:
-
North Arm Inundated Area
- SCF:
-
Salinity correction factor for GSL evaporation
- SD:
-
System Dynamics
- SIFN-HD:
-
Surface Inflow- North Arm - highly developed period
- SIFN-MD:
-
Surface Inflow- North Arm - medium developed period
- SIFS-HD:
-
Surface Inflow- South Arm - highly developed period
- SIFS-MD:
-
Surface Inflow- South Arm - medium developed period
- SLCWWTP:
-
Salt Lake City Wastewater Treatment Plant
- SPI:
-
Standardized Precipitation Index
- TS:
-
Time‐step of GSLIM simulation
- USGS:
-
United States Geological Survey
- VIC:
-
Variable Infiltration Capacity
- WR:
-
Weber River
- WSE:
-
Water Surface Elevation
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Acknowledgements
Our sincere thanks go out to Krishna Khatri and the Utah Division of Water Resources for providing the Great Salt Lake Integrated Model and the required data. We are also grateful to Dr. Simon Brewer of the Department of Geography, at the University of Utah for his help in developing the methodology. This paper is indebted to the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, as well as the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 5 of the Appendix) for their work and for making their model outputs available. Finally, we would like to acknowledge and thank anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions to improve this paper.
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This research is funded by a Graduate Teaching Assistantship at the University of Utah.
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Hassan, D., Burian, S.J., Johnson, R.C. et al. The Great Salt Lake Water Level is Becoming Less Resilient to Climate Change. Water Resour Manage 37, 2697–2720 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03376-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03376-x