Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Akter T, Simonovic SP (2004) Modeling uncertainties in short term reservoir operation using fuzzy sets and genetic algorithm. Hydrol Sci J 49(6):1081–1097

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio—economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:31–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Asokan SM, Dutta D (2008) Analysis of water resources in the Mahanadi River Basin, India under projected climate conditions. Hydrol Process 22:3589–3603

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Binoy AM (2005) Integration of water quality and quantity control in a reservoir system, Ph.D. thesis, Dep. of Civil Engg., Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India

  • Burn HD, Simonovic SP (1996) Sensitivity of reservoir operation performance to climatic change. Water Resour Manag J 10(6):463–478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chapra SC (1998) Surface water quality modelling. McGraw Hill Kogakusha Ltd., New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Chaves P, Kojiri T, Yamashiki Y (2003) Optimization of storage reservoir considering water quantity and quality. Hydrol Process 17(14):2769–2793

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen J, Brissette FP, Poulin A, Leconte R (2011) Overall uncertainty study of the hydrological impacts of climate change for a Canadian watershed. Water Resour Res 47, W12509. doi:10.1029/2011WR010602

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davies EGR, Simonovic SP (2010) ANEMI: a new model for integrated assessment of global change. Interdiscip Environ Rev 11(2/3):127–161. doi:10.1504/IER.2010.037903

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davies EGR, Simonovic SP (2011) Water resources and integrated assessment modeling—the ANEMI model. Adv Water Resour 34:684–700, available online 18 February 2011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dibike YB, Coulibaly P (2005) Hydrologic impact of climate change in the saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. J Hydrol 307(1–4):145–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eum H-I, Simonovic SP (2010) Integrated reservoir management system for adaptation to climate change: the Nakdong River Basin in Korea. Water Resour Manag 24(13):3397–3417

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eum H-I, Vasan A, Simonovic SP (2012) Integrated reservoir management system for flood risk assessment under climate change. Water Resour Manag 26(13):3785–3802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fisher AC, Rubio SJ (1997) Adjusting to climate change: implications of increased variability and asymmetric adjustment costs for investment in water reserves. J Environ Econ Manag 34(3):207–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghosh S, Mujumdar PP (2009) Climate change impact assessment: uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability. J Geophys Res 114, D18113. doi:10.1029/2008JD011648

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (2002) Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the “reliability ensemble averaging” (REA) method. J Clim 15(10):1141–1158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, GandinbL IM, Saha S, White G, Woolen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetma A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan MS, Coulibaly P, Dibike Y (2006) Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods. J Hydrol 319:357–382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King LMM, Irwin S, Sarwar R, McLeod AIA, Simonovic SP (2012) The effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Upper Thames River Basin: a comparison of downscaling approaches. Canadian Water Resour J 37(3):253–274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee J-H, Labadie JW (2007) Stochastic optimization of multireservoir systems via reinforcement learning. Water Resour Res 43, W11408. doi:10.1029/2006WR005627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loucks DP, Stedinger JR, Haith DH (1981) Water resources systems planning and analysis. Prentice Hall, Eaglewood Cliffs

    Google Scholar 

  • Majone B, Bovolo CI, Bellin A, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ (2012) Modeling the impacts of future climate change on water resources for the Gállego River Basin (Spain). Water Resour Res 48, W01512. doi:10.1029/2011WR010985

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meenu R, Rehana S, Mujumdar PP (2013) Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga-Bhadra River Basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM. Hydrol Process 27(11):1572–1589

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mujumdar PP, Ghosh S (2008) Modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty using a possibilistic approach: application to the Mahanadi River, India. Water Resour Res 44, W06407. doi:10.1029/2007WR006137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nikoo MR, Karimi A, Kerachian R (2013) Optimal long-term operation of reservoir-river systems under hydrologic uncertainties: application of interval programming. Water Resour Res 27(11):3865–3883

    Google Scholar 

  • Orlob GT, Simonovic S (1982) Reservoir operation for water quality control. In: Unny TE, McBean EA (eds) Experience in operation of hydrosystems. Water Resour. Pub, Littleton, pp 263–285

    Google Scholar 

  • Prudhomme C, Davies H (2009) Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate. Clim Chang 93(1–2):197–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raje D, Mujumdar PP (2010) Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change. Adv Water Resour 33(3):312–326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rehana S, Mujumdar PP (2009) An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system. J Environ Manag 90(11):3653–3664

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rehana S, Mujumdar PP (2011) River water quality response under hypothetical climate change scenarios in Tunga-Bhadra River, India. Hydrol Process 25(22):3373–3386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rehana S, Mujumdar PP (2012) Climate change induced risk in water quality control problems. J Hydrol 444–445:63–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rehana S, Mujumdar PP (2013) Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands. Hydrol Process 27(20):2918–2933

    Google Scholar 

  • Sasikumar K, Mujumdar PP (1998) Fuzzy optimization model for water quality management of a river system. J Water Resour Plan Manag 124(2):79–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simonovic SP (2010) A new methodology for the assessment of climate change impacts on a watershed scale. Curr Sci 98(8):1047–1055

    Google Scholar 

  • Simonovic SP, Li L (2004) Sensitivity of the Red River basin flood protection system to climate variability and change. Water Resour Manag 18(2):89–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tebaldi C, Mearns LO, Nychka D, Smith RL (2004), Regional probabilities of precipitation change: a Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations. Geophys Res Lett. 31(24)

  • Teegavarapu RSV, Simonovic SP (1999) Modeling uncertainty in reservoir loss functions using fuzzy sets. Water Resour Res 35(9):2815–2823

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teutschbein C, Wetterhall F, Seibert J (2011) Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale. Clim Dyn 37(9–10):2087–2105. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0979-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicuna S, Dracup JA, Lund JR, Dale LL, Maurer EP (2010) Basin scale water system operations with uncertain future climate conditions: methodology and case studies. Water Resour Res 46, W04505. doi:10.1029/2009WR007838

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vörösmarty CJ, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers RB (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289(5477):284–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL (2005) Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment. Hydrol Process 19(16):3201–3219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zadeh LA (1965) Fuzzy sets. Inf Control 8:338–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Malla Reddy Institute of Technology and Science, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, 500014, India

    S. Rehana

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, 560 012, India

    P. P. Mujumdar

  3. Divecha Center for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, 560 012, India

    P. P. Mujumdar

Authors
  1. S. Rehana
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. P. P. Mujumdar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to P. P. Mujumdar.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rehana, S., Mujumdar, P.P. Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties. Water Resour Manage 28, 3127–3142 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0659-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0659-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation