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Modeling the 20th-century distribution changes of Microgyne trifurcata, a rare plant of the southern South American grasslands

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Abstract

Microgyne trifurcata is a rare native plant species from one of the areas with the highest human impact on the environment in southern South America. Its habitat, mostly grasslands suitable for agriculture, has been increasingly covered by crops since the late 1800s. Microgyne trifurcata provides an excellent case study to understand how different environmental variables have affected the distribution area of a rare species. This study aims to estimate the impact of topoclimatic and land-use changes in the distribution of Microgyne trifurcata throughout the twentieth century. We carried out recent past and present distribution modeling using the Ensembles of Small Models (ESM) methodology. In this spatio-temporal study, we included climatic, topographic, and land-use variables. We classified the occurrences into two periods of the twentieth century. The first dates from 1901 to 1940, and the second, from 1960 to 2000, when the main cropping changes of the area occurred. The projected area between 1960 and 2000 provides for this species new suitable habitats toward the northeast of the area of study. Our results highlight the importance of assessing the combined impacts of climate and land-use changes on species distributions over time. This study shows that the potential area of Microgyne trifurcata decreased and underwent fragmentation throughout the twentieth century when these variables combined are used to model its distribution. Our outcomes prompt future studies on the vulnerability of Microgyne trifurcata to outline conservation strategies.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the curators of BAB, CORD, LP, MO, MVFA, NY, and SI herbaria for the loan of specimens. Special thanks are due to Martín Fileni, Camilo Pérez, and Federico Luebert who helped during the collection trips. We want to thank Cesar Benavidez for preparing the land-use layers. We are grateful to anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on the manuscript. This research was funded by Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica (ANPCyT), Grant BID PICT 2012-1683, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas (CONICET), Grant PIP 2013/2015-0446 (J. N. V. B. and G. S.), Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico (FONDECYT), Grant No. 1181677, ANID PIA/BASAL FB0002 (P. P.), and Postdoctoral Fellowships, CONICET and Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP) Res. No. 1145 (J. N. V. B.).

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  1. División Plantas Vasculares, Museo de La Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo, Universidad de La Plata (UNLP), Paseo del Bosque s/n, La Plata 1900, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Jessica Noelia Viera Barreto & Gisela Sancho

  2. Laboratorio de Botánica, Facultad de Agronomía, Av. Garzón 780, CP 12900, Montevideo, Uruguay

    José Mauricio Bonifacino

  3. Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Avenida Vicuña Mackenna 4860, 7820436, Santiago, Chile

    Patricio Pliscoff

  4. Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Libertador Bernardo O’Higgins 340, 8331150, Santiago, Chile

    Patricio Pliscoff

  5. Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

    Patricio Pliscoff

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  1. Jessica Noelia Viera Barreto
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  2. Gisela Sancho
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  3. José Mauricio Bonifacino
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  4. Patricio Pliscoff
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Correspondence to Jessica Noelia Viera Barreto.

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Communicated by James D. A. Millington.

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Viera Barreto, J.N., Sancho, G., Bonifacino, J.M. et al. Modeling the 20th-century distribution changes of Microgyne trifurcata, a rare plant of the southern South American grasslands. Plant Ecol 222, 1033–1049 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-021-01159-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-021-01159-9

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