Abstract
Large-scale distribution models are effective predictors of habitat suitability and connectivity across broad landscapes and are useful management tools, though few large-scale species distribution models exist for medium-sized predators in urban landscapes. We modeled the potential distribution of 4 medium-sized predators in a 17,361-km2 portion of the Chicago Metropolitan Area. We applied a maximum entropy algorithm model (MaxEnt) using presence-only data collected via remote cameras from 54 Lake County, Illinois, forest preserves during August–October 2008–2012. Environmental data layers used to model distributions were distances to forest, grassland, barren land, crops, wetlands, developed open space, developed low intensity, developed high intensity, water, primary roads, secondary roads, and tertiary roads. Coyotes (Canis latrans) had the greatest area of potential distribution followed by opossums (Didelphis virginiana), striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), and raccoons (Procyon lotor). Models for all species had high AUC values (0.90–0.94) indicating strong predictive performance. More than 50% of the study area was predicted to be within the distributional limit for each focal species. Distance to forest was the most important contributory predictor for all species modeled (82% - 96%) and higher probability of presence for all 4 species was indicated closer to forest and further from tertiary roads. However, coyotes and raccoons were predicted to prefer habitat closer to highly-developed areas. Our research indicates medium-sized predators are highly synanthropic and able to persist within the Chicago Metropolitan Area given adequate availability of non-urban land cover, particularly forest, and ample green space linking forest patches within highly-developed areas.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alig RJ, Kline JD, Lichtenstein M (2004) Urbanization on the US landscape: looking ahead in the 21st century. Landsc Urban Plan 69:219–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2003.07.004
Allen CH, Marchinton RL, Lentz WM (1985) Movement, habitat use and denning of opossums in the Georgia piedmont. Am Midl Nat 113:408–412. https://doi.org/10.2307/2425591
Andelt WF, Andelt SH (1981) Habitat use by coyotes in southeastern Nebraska. J Wildl Manag 45:1001–1005. https://doi.org/10.2307/3808113
Angold PG, Sadler JP, Hill MO, Pullin A, Rushton S, Austin K, Small E, Wood B, Wadsworth R, Sanderson R, Thompson K (2006) Biodiversity in urban habitat patches. Sci Total Environ 360:196–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2005.08.035
Beissinger SR, Osborne DR (1982) Effects of urbanization on avian community organization. Condor 84:75–83. https://doi.org/10.2307/1367825
Belaire JA, Dribin AK, Johnston DP, Lynch DJ, Minor ES (2011) Mapping stewardship networks in urban ecosystems. Conserv Lett 4:464–473. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2011.00200.x
Berger J (1999) Anthropogenic extinction of top carnivores and interspecific animal behaviour: implications of the rapid decoupling of a web involving wolves, bears, moose and ravens. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 266:2261–2267. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1999.0917
Berger KM, Gese EM (2007) Does interference competition with wolves limit the distribution and abundance of coyotes? J Anim Ecol 76:1075–1085. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2007.01287.x
Bixler A, Gittleman JL (2000) Variation in home range and use of habitat in the striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis). J Zool 251:525–533
Bollin-Booth HA (2007) Diet analysis of the coyote (Canis latrans) in metropolitan park systems of Northeast Ohio. Thesis, Cleveland State University
Brown JL, Bennett JR, French CM (2017) SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses. PeerJ 5:e4095. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4095
Cassel KW (2014) Factors influencing site occupancy of breeding birds, herptiles, mesocarnivores, and small mammals on suburban forest preserves in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Thesis, Southern Illinois University Carbondale
Cepek JD (2004) Diet composition of coyotes in the Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio. Ohio J Sci 104:60–64
Chace JF, Walsh JJ (2006) Urban effects on native avifauna: a review. Landsc Urban Plan 74:46–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2004.08.007
Chicago Wilderness (1999) Biodiversity recovery plan. Chicago Region Biodiversity Council, Chicago, IL
Cooper SE, Nielsen CK, McDonald PT (2012) Landscape factors affecting relative abundance of gray foxes Urocyon cinereoargenteus at large scales in Illinois, USA. Wildl Biol 18:366–373. https://doi.org/10.2981/11-093
Crooks KR (2002) Relative sensitivities of mammalian carnivores to habitat fragmentation. Conserv Biol 16:488–502. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.00386.x
Crooks KR, Soulé ME (1999) Mesopredator release and avifaunal extinctions in a fragmented system. Nature 400:563–566
Czech B, Krausman PR, Devers PK (2000) Economic associations among causes of species endangerment in the United States. BioScience 50:593–601. https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0593:EAACOS]2.0.CO;2
Dickson BG, Roemer GW, McRae BH, Rundall JM (2013) Models of regional habitat quality and connectivity for pumas (Puma concolor) in the southwestern United States. PLoS One 8:e81898. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081898
Dijak WD, Thompson FR III (2000) Landscape and edge effects on the distribution of mammalian predators in Missouri. J Wildl Manag 64:209–216. https://doi.org/10.2307/3802992
Dormann CF, Elith J, Bacher S et al. (2013) Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography 36 (1):27–46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x
Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP et al (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129–151. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x
Elith J, Kearney M, Phillips S (2010) The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods Ecol Evol 1:330–342. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x
Elith J, Phillips SJ, Hastie T, Dudík M, Chee YE, Yates CJ (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Divers Distrib 17:43–57. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x
ESRI (2011) ArcGIS Desktop. Version 10. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California
Fidino MA, Lehrer EW, Magle SB (2016) Habitat dynamics of the Virginia opossum in a highly urban landscape. Am Midl Nat 175:155–167. https://doi.org/10.1674/0003-0031-175.2.155
Gardner AL, Sunquist ME (2003) Opossum, Didephis virginiana. In: Feldhamer GA, Thompson BC, Chapman JA (eds) Wild mammals of North America: biology, management, and conservation, 2nd Edn. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp 3–29
Gehrt SD (2004) Ecology and management of striped skunks, raccoons, and coyotes in urban landscapes. In: Fascione N, Delach A, Smith M (eds) People and predators: from conflict to coexistence. Island Press, Washington DC, pp 81–104
Gehrt SD, Riley SPD (2010) Coyotes (Canis latrans). In: Gehrt SD, Riley SPD, Cypher BL (eds) Urban carnivores: ecology, conflict, and conservation. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD, pp 79–96
Gehrt SD, Anchor C, White LA (2009) Home range and landscape use of coyotes in a metropolitan landscape: conflict or coexistence? J Mammal 90:1045–1057. https://doi.org/10.1644/08-MAMM-A-277.1
Gehrt SD, Riley SP, Cypher BL (2010) Urban carnivores: ecology, conflict, and conservation. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD
Gese EM, Rongstad OJ, Mytton WR (1988) Home range and habitat use of coyotes in southeastern Colorado. J Wildl Manag 52:640–646. https://doi.org/10.2307/3800923
Gese EM, Morey PS, Gehrt SD (2012) Influence of the urban matrix on space use of coyotes in the Chicago metropolitan area. J Ethol 30:413–425. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10164-012-0339-8
Gillette LN (1980) Movement patterns of radio-tagged opossums in Wisconsin. Am Midl Nat 104:1–12. https://doi.org/10.2307/2424953
Gipson PS, Kamler JF (2001) Survival and home ranges of opossums in northeastern Kansas. Southwest Nat 46:178–182. https://doi.org/10.2307/3672526
Gompper ME, Kays RW, Ray JC, Lapoint SD, Bogan DA, Cryan JR (2006) A comparison of noninvasive techniques to survey carnivore communities in northeastern North America. Wildl Soc Bull 34:1142–1151. https://doi.org/10.2193/0091-7648(2006)34[1142:ACONTT]2.0.CO;2
Gosselink TE, Van Deelen TR, Warner RE, Joselyn MG (2003) Temporal habitat partitioning and spatial use of coyotes and red foxes in east-Central Illinois. J Wildl Manag 67:90–103. https://doi.org/10.2307/3803065
Gross J, Elvinger F, Hungerford LL, Gehrt SD (2012) Raccoon use of the urban matrix in the Baltimore metropolitan area, Maryland. Urban Ecosyst 15:667–682. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-011-0218-z
Grubbs SE, Krausman PR (2009) Use of urban landscape by coyotes. Southwest Nat 54:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1894/MLK-05.1
Haverland MB, Veech JA (2017) Examining the occurrence of mammal species in natural areas within a rapidly urbanizing region of Texas, USA. Landsc Urban Plan 157:221–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.06.001
Hawbaker TJ, Radeloff VC, Hammer RB, Clayton MK (2005) Road density and landscape pattern in relation to housing density, and ownership, land cover, and soils. Landsc Ecol 20:609–625. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-004-5647-0
Heimlich RE, Anderson WD (2001) Development at the urban fringe and beyond: impacts on agriculture and rural land. Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Economic Report No 803
Helldin JO, Liberg O, Glöersen G (2006) Lynx (Lynx lynx) killing red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in boreal Sweden–frequency and population effects. J Zool 270:657–663. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7998.2006.00172.x
Hiestand SJ, Nielsen CK, Jiménez FA (2014) Modelling potential presence of metazoan endoparasites of bobcats (Lynx Rufus) using verified records. Folia Parasitol 61:401–410. https://doi.org/10.14411/fp.2014.062
Homer CG, Dewitz JA, Yang L, Suming J, Danielson P, Xian G, Coulston J, Herold N, Wickham J, Megown K (2015) Completion of the 2011 National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States-representing a decade of land cover change information. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 81:345–354
Honda T (2009) Environmental factors affecting the distribution of the wild boar, sika deer, Asiatic black bear and Japanese macaque in Central Japan, with implications for human-wildlife conflict. Mammal Study 34:107–116. https://doi.org/10.3106/041.034.0206
Kamler JF, Gipson PS (2003) Space and habitat use by male and female raccoons, Procyon lotor, in Kansas. Can Field Nat 117:218–223. https://doi.org/10.22621/cfn.v117i2.685
Kanda LL, Fuller TK, Sievert PR (2006) Landscape associations of road-killed Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana) in Central Massachusetts. Am Midl Nat 156:128–134. https://doi.org/10.1674/0003-0031(2006)156[128:LAORVO]2.0.CO;2
Kanda LL, Fuller TK, Sievert PR, Kellogg RL (2009) Seasonal source–sink dynamics at the edge of a species’ range. Ecology 90:1574–1585. https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1263.1
Kittle AM, Watson AC, Cushman SA, Macdonald DW (2018) Forest cover and level of protection influence the island-wide distribution of an apex carnivore and umbrella species, the Sri Lankan leopard (Panthera pardus kotiya). Biodivers Conserv 27:235–263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-017-1431-8
LaRue MA, Nielsen CK (2011) Modelling potential habitat for cougars in midwestern North America. Ecol Model 222:897–900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.11.017
LaRue MA, Nielsen CK (2016) Population viability of recolonizing cougars in midwestern North America. Ecol Model 321:121–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.026
Lay DW (1942) Ecology of the opossum in eastern Texas. J Mammal 23:147–159. https://doi.org/10.2307/1375067
Lesmeister DB, Nielsen CK, Schauber EM, Hellgren EC (2015) Spatial and temporal structure of a mesocarnivore guild in Midwestern North America. Wildl Monogr 191:1–61. https://doi.org/10.1002/wmon.1015
Letnic M, Dworjanyn SA (2011) Does a top predator reduce the predatory impact of an invasive mesopredator on an endangered rodent? Ecography 34:827–835. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06516.x
Lewis JS, Logan KA, Alldredge MW, Bailey LL, VandeWoude S, Crooks KR (2015) The effects of urbanization on population density, occupancy, and detection probability of wild felids. Ecol Appl 25:1880–1895. https://doi.org/10.1890/14-1664.1
Magle SB, Lehrer EW, Fidino M (2016) Urban mesopredator distribution: examining the relative effects of landscape and socioeconomic factors. Anim Conserv 19:163–175. https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12231
McDonald PT, Nielsen CK, Oyana TJ, Sun W (2008) Modelling habitat overlap among sympatric mesocarnivores in southern Illinois, USA. Ecol Model 215:276–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.03.021
McIntyre NE, Rango J, Fagan WF, Faeth SH (2001) Ground arthropod community structure in a heterogeneous urban environment. Landsc Urban Plan 52:257–274. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2046(00)00122-5
McKinney ML (2006) Urbanization as a major cause of biotic homogenization. Biol Conserv 127:247–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2005.09.005
Morey PS, Gese EM, Gehrt S (2007) Spatial and temporal variation in the diet of coyotes in the Chicago metropolitan area. Am Midl Nat 158:147–161. https://doi.org/10.1674/0003-0031(2007)158[147:SATVIT]2.0.CO;2
Nielsen CK, Bottom CR, Tebo RG, Greenspan E (2018) Habitat overlap among bobcats (Lynx Rufus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) in an agricultural landscape. Can J Zool 96:486–496. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjz-2017-0079
O’Connell AF Jr, Talancy NW, Bailey LL, Sauer JR, Cook R, Gilbert AT (2006) Estimating site occupancy and detection probability parameters for meso-and large mammals in a coastal ecosystem. J Wildl Manag 70:1625–1633. https://doi.org/10.2193/0022-541X(2006)70[1625:ESOADP]2.0.CO;2
Ordeñana MA, Crooks KR, Boydston EE, Fisher RN, Lyren LM, Siudyla S, Haas CD, Harris S, Hathaway SA, Turschak GM, Miles AK, Van Vuren DH (2010) Effects of urbanization on carnivore species distribution and richness. J Mammal 91:1322–1331. https://doi.org/10.1644/09-MAMM-A-312.1
Pearson RG, Raxworthy CJ, Nakamura M, Townsend Peterson A (2007) Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. J Biogeogr 34:102–117. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01594.x
Person DK, Hirth DH (1991) Home range and habitat use of coyotes in a farm region of Vermont. J Wildl Manag 55:433–441. https://doi.org/10.2307/3808971
Peterson AT, Papeş M, Eaton M (2007) Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography 30:550–560. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2007.05102.x
Phillips SJ, Dudík M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31:161–175. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x
Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190:231–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
Phillips SJ, Dudík M, Elith J, Graham CH, Lehmann A, Leathwick J, Ferrier S (2009) Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data. Ecol Appl 19:181–197. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-2153.1
Prange S, Gehrt SD (2004) Changes in mesopredator-community structure in response to urbanization. Can J Zool 82:1804–1817. https://doi.org/10.1139/z04-179
Prange S, Gehrt SD, Wiggers EP (2003) Demographic factors contributing to high raccoon densities in urban landscapes. J Wildl Manag 67:324–333. https://doi.org/10.2307/3802774
Prugh LR, Stoner CJ, Epps CW, Bean WT, Ripple WJ, Laliberte AS, Brashares JS (2009) The rise of the mesopredator. BioScience 59:779–791. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2009.59.9.9
Quinn T (1997) Coyote (Canis latrans) habitat selection in urban areas of western Washington via analysis of routine movements. Northwest Sci 71:289–297
Rabinowitz A, Zeller KA (2010) A range-wide model of landscape connectivity and conservation for the jaguar, Panthera onca. Biol Conserv 143:939–945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.01.002
Radosavljevic A, Anderson RP (2014) Making better Maxent models of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluation. J Biogeogr 41:629–643. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12227
Remya K, Ramachandran A, Jayakumar S (2015) Predicting the current and future suitable habitat distribution of Myristica dactyloides Gaertn. Using MaxEnt model in the eastern Ghats, India. Ecol Eng 82:184–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2015.04.053
Reynolds HC (1945) Some aspects of the life history and ecology of the opossum in Central Missouri. J Mammal 26:361–379. https://doi.org/10.2307/1375155
Riley SP, Hadidian J, Manski DA (1998) Population density, survival, and rabies in raccoons in an urban national park. Can J Zool 76:1153–1164. https://doi.org/10.1139/z98-042
Riley SP, Sauvajot RM, Fuller TK, York EC, Kamradt DA, Bromley C, Wayne RK (2003) Effects of urbanization and habitat fragmentation on bobcats and coyotes in southern California. Conserv Biol 17:566–576. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01458.x
Ripple WJ, Wirsing AJ, Wilmers CC, Letnic M (2013) Widespread mesopredator effects after wolf extirpation. Biol Conserv 160:70–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2012.12.033
Ritchie EG, Johnson CN (2009) Predator interactions, mesopredator release and biodiversity conservation. Ecol Lett 12:982–998. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01347.x
Roemer GW, Gompper ME, Van Valkenburgh B (2009) The ecological role of the mammalian mesocarnivore. BioScience 59:165–173. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2009.59.2.9
Rosatte R, Sobey K, Dragoo JW, Gehrt SD (2010) Striped skunks and allies (Mephitis spp.). In: Gehrt SD, Riley SPD, Cypher BL (eds) Urban carnivores: ecology, conflict, and conservation. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp 97–106
Ruffino DM (2008) Behavioral ecology of striped skunk: factors influencing urban rabies management. Dissertation, Texas A&M University
Sinclair KE, Hess GR, Moorman CE, Mason JH (2005) Mammalian nest predators respond to greenway width, landscape context and habitat structure. Landsc Urban Plan 71:277–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2004.04.001
Smith JB, Nielsen CK, Hellgren EC (2016) Suitable habitat for recolonizing large carnivores in the midwestern United States. Oryx 50:555–564. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605314001227
Soulé ME, Bolger DT, Alberts AC, Wrights J, Sorice M, Hill S (1988) Reconstructed dynamics of rapid extinctions of chaparral-requiring birds in urban habitat islands. Conserv Biol 2:75–92. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.1988.tb00337.x
Swanepoel LH, Lindsey P, Somers MJ, Hoven WV, Dalerum F (2013) Extent and fragmentation of suitable leopard habitat in South Africa. Anim Conserv 16:41–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2012.00566.x
Swets JA (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240:1285–1293
Thatcher CA, van Manen FT, Clark JD (2009) A habitat assessment for Florida panther population expansion into Central Florida. J Mammal 90:918–925. https://doi.org/10.1644/08-MAMM-A-219.1
Thorn JS, Nijman V, Smith D, Nekaris KAI (2009) Ecological niche modelling as a technique for assessing threats and setting conservation priorities for Asian slow lorises (Primates: Nycticebus). Divers Distrib 15:289–298. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00535.x
Tigas LA, Vuren DHV, Sauvajot RM (2003) Carnivore persistence in fragmented habitats in urban southern California. Pac Conserv Biol 9:144–151. https://doi.org/10.1071/pc030144
Urbanek RE, Nielsen CK (2013) Influence of landscape factors on density of suburban white-tailed deer. Landsc Urban Plan 114:28–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2013.02.006
USCB (2010) Quickfacts Lake County, Illinois. United States Census Bureau, United States Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045216/17097,00
USDA NRCS (2014) United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service Geospatial Data Gateway. http://datagateway.nrcs.usda.gov/
VanDerWal J, Shoo LP, Graham C, Williams SE (2009) Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: how far should you stray from what you know? Ecol Model 220:589–594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.010
Verts BJ (1967) Biology of the striped skunk. University of Illinois Press, Urbana
Wiens JA, Stralberg D, Jongsomjit D, Howell CA, Snyder MA (2009) Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:19729–19736. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901639106
Woolf A, Nielsen CK, Weber T, Gibbs-Kieninger TJ (2002) Statewide modeling of bobcat, Lynx Rufus, habitat in Illinois, USA. Biol Conserv 104:191–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0006-3207(01)00164-1
Wright JD, Burt MS, Jackson VL (2012) Influences of an urban environment on home range and body mass of Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana). Northeast Nat 19:77–86. https://doi.org/10.1656/045.019.0106
Acknowledgements
This research was funded by the Lake County Forest Preserve District with additional support from the Cooperative Wildlife Research Laboratory and Department of Forestry at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. B. Easton, G. Glowacki, K. Mennie, T. Pruess, and A. Valand assisted with field work.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare they have no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Greenspan, E., Nielsen, C.K. & Cassel, K.W. Potential distribution of coyotes (Canis latrans), Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana), striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis), and raccoons (Procyon lotor) in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Urban Ecosyst 21, 983–997 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-018-0778-2
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-018-0778-2