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Study on the country risk rating with distributed crawling system

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Abstract

This paper built a system containing the Distributed Crawling Module, the Database Module and the Analysis Module to collect a large number of objective data, clean the data and realize the business intelligence representation. The distributed crawling system includes the Distributed Crawling Module building from Hadoop, the Database Module by SQL Server and the Analysis Module by the SAS system. The first two modules support a distributed way to collect and convert non-structural data into structural data for the last module processing. Then, this paper extends research fields from theory to application about B&R, constructs rating system from the perspective of political risk, economic risk, financial risk, business environment risk and legal risk, establishes a 140 rating index, collects 46,200 sample data, and adopts Model of Principal Components Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process and Efficacy Function to access “the Belt & Road Initiative” 66 countries for 5 consecutive years of export credit insurance in the country risk rating. This paper also gives a detail explanation on 2015 rating results, showing that, Singapore wins the highest credit rating among the country; the credit rating of Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Turkey, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand and other countries is very high; Afghanistan, Ukraine, Laos, Iran, Arabia, Republic of Syria, Iraq, Burma, Republic of Yemen, East Timor and other countries with poor credit ratings. The conclusion is consistent with the domestic and overseas well-known rating agencies.

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Acknowledgements

The paper was financially supported by the National Social Science Fund of China “Research on the redistribution function of social security system: Research on the national social security fund’s intervention in pension insurance payment” (18BJY212) and “the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities” in UIBE (CXTD9-04).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Insurance and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China

    Yuantao Xie, Wen Wang & Yabo Guo

  2. China Export and Credit Insurance Corp, Beijing, China

    Wen Wang

  3. Institute of Comprehensive Development, Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development, Beijing, China

    Juan Yang

Authors
  1. Yuantao Xie
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  2. Wen Wang
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  3. Yabo Guo
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  4. Juan Yang
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Correspondence to Yuantao Xie.

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Xie, Y., Wang, W., Guo, Y. et al. Study on the country risk rating with distributed crawling system. J Supercomput 75, 6159–6177 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11227-018-2539-7

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